President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

I'm not going to say that the polls are gospel, but her edge in the consensus has dropped from 2.8 to 2.1 over the past two weeks. And two main polls were calculated yesterday.

It's pretty simple to me. If Pennsylvania goes the wrong way, she's in a precarious position. Which, I would imagine, is why she pulled resources from Wisconsin to make a harder push in PA.

 

You know who really understands Hispanic and Black working-class voters? The white nationalist priesthood of MAGA. The billionaire tech bros of MAGA.

 

Clinton won by 2.1%. And was edged in all the swing states. Kinda like this.

 

Yep, never mind the actual visual evidence we have of enthusiasm everywhere with early voting numbers. Let's go with POLLS!

Can't wait for Harris to win and shut you polls people the fuck up forever.

 

I hope you're right.
I really hope you're right.

 

My wife is my barometer on this. She's pretty plugged in to the election because of her job. When she starts worrying, I'll start worrying. She's the opposite right now.

 

1) Re: polls, I'm not sure any reputable poll -- if there is such a beast -- would have had time to find a sample size, interpret the data and release the report by now. That was only Wednesday.
2) If her debate domination didn't make a difference, I don't know that the Fox interview will, either.
3) As to popular vote vs. EC, if her losses in the popular vote serve only to reduce her margins in CA and NY and IL, for example, I won't be particularly agitated by popular vote totals.

 

I have this fear that early voting is as robust as it is in many swing states because Trumpists are intentionally getting their vote recorded so that they can tune out everything between now and Nov. 5. That way, they don't have to be burdened by second thoughts because it's too late or because it requires too much effort to change. Which is kind of the way they think in general. They have gotten this far because they're unwilling to put any effort into examining their party's nominee.

 

I hope you get your wish, even though I know you won't STFU anyway.

 

I like my polls slathered with a big smear of margarine of error.

 

Then don't believe them. I'll only play the role of Dave Chappelle on Nov. 6, one day only, if it goes south.

 

Polls so close as almost all Harris-Trump ones have been should make both sides nervous. The only message they send is "it's a close election." If they're right, then the winner-loser metric isn't how to judge them. Let's say a poll shows Trump winning a state by one point, but Harris winds up winning it by a little less than a point. That poll was accurate to under 2 percent, which is about the best possible performance, even if it showed the "wtong" candidate winning. The only way the polls could be really wrong is if Harris or Trump wins by a significant margin in the popular vote NOT the electoral college.