President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Holy crap. My county has a population of 28,000, and had just under 15,000 total votes cast in 2020. More than 4,000 people have voted in the first THREE days of in-person election so far. It went 88-16 for Trump vs. Biden four years ago and 82-14 for Trump vs. Clinton in 2016 (with 12,000 votes).

Those are massive numbers. That either means a record-breaking turnout or most of the locals who believe the election is rigged are getting their votes in before Election Day. I'll have to watch that as we get closer to the end of the month.

At the same time, the big Democratic-leaning Atlanta metro counties are putting up huge numbers as well. Georgia is a state where the Democrats can dominate Atlanta and Savannah and still bleed to death by 160 redneck rural paper cuts.

 

Look, if Nikki Haley or even Doug Burgrum (name recognition 0.0004 percent) were the Republican nominee, they'd be leading Harris by 5-10 points. Every incumbent party in every democracy around the world has been getting crushed in elections ever since the pandemic -- except here. Trump's the reason why. The question here shouldn't be why hasn't Harris opened up a. big lead, it's how come Trump hasn't done it.

 

What is this based on? There has been next to no movement in any reliable metric for weeks, as far as I can tell.

 

This is the percentage of the massive stolen election Trump claimed occurred in six swing states in 2020.

0.000019

19 of every 1 million votes were possibly fraudulent. Nine fucking teen.

Basically, less than 500 possible fraudulent votes out of 25 million led to an insurrection.

 

I think the main reason Harris's momentum has been slackening is that, well, you can't have Lobsterfest every week. Whether it was Walz, the convention, the debate, there are only so many external factors and new things that you can inject to influence a race like this.

To some degree, that is where the sports analogies fail, because there really isn't a situation where a close outcome is locked in and we're all on a glide path to the finish line. I think what we're looking at is probably just some regression to the mean, and even then, that may be more of a reflection of the polling and the methodologies rather than the actual electorate. And, though I realize it's gauche to refer to Nate Silver these days, he makes a good point that the shift between a 52/48 probability of outcome A happening to a 52/48 probability of outcome B happening is nowhere near as significant as people think it is.

It's going to come down to ground game and turnout, which is what we've known for three months. Is it terrifying? Yes. But everyone is panicking about the variables they know, which pale in comparison to the variables that nobody knows.

 

This betting market in particular is a total scam. Same as the paid-for trump polls that flood the averages late in the game. They seek to create a sense that trump is inevitable. With the added benefit that they can point and say "rigged" afterward if he doesn't win. "But the polls said he won! Polymarket said he won! Rigged!"

 

You can’t spell crypto without “crypt.” Not many people know that.

 

the breakdown in places like Michigan, Georgia and Penn. are showing the complete opposite based on the party of registered voters. Dems are way ahead on early voting and in a couple of the states GOP is running third on returns to unaffiliated.

 

From your lips to blue ears.