President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Yeah, sorry, but this is a case of terminally online people like Dowd overreacting to an article they didn't actually read and Newsweek pushing out clickbait garbage.

Here's the story in question:
Nate Silver predicts path for Kamala Harris to "probably" win election

This is the nut graph:
In a post on his Substack blog on Saturday, he wrote, "If Harris wins the three Blue Wall States, she probably (although not certainly) wins."

This isn't news. That's always been her firewall. Silver has written it countless times. So has every other poll analyst. Silver hasn't made a final projection because his model will run all the way up to election day.

 

So I'm in the car this morning, listening to NPR's "Morning Edition". Steve Inskeep starts a report with "Some three thousand troops have been sent from North Carolina to Russia, to join the war with Ukraine as combat troops."

I knew he meant North Korea, but I laughed my ass off. He corrected his mistake at the end of the report, but the horse was out of the barn.

 

None of the election modelers/forecasters are gonna come up with any result besides "it's a tossup" before Election Day. Now, that's almost surely because that's what the data tells them. But I can't help noticing that a forecast of :"it could go either way" also insures the modeler/forecaster can't be wrong.

 

I guess I was just thinking about emails. It's a matter of course for me to unsubscribe from them as soon as they arrive.

 

Looking forward to the day when I hear the word "Polls" ... and it's the latest news from Warsaw!

 

My 35 year old Joe Rogan bro family member wasn’t going to vote this year. Then he watched the MSG extravaganza last night. He woke up, raced to the polls and voted straight Dem ticket. I suspect he’s not the only one who responded that way.

 

If that rally didn't hurt Trump then this country just isn't worth worrying about. It'd deserve to be fucked over.

 

Again, just my two cents ...

Does this ever feel like 2016. Let me explain.

Pardon my racing parlance, but last night's Trump rally smacked of someone taking a victory lap before the checkered flag. There's still nine days before all the ballots are received, and even if Repulican pollsters and leadership think they've got it in the bag -- or even more insidiously, think the House can somehow ignore the Electoral College and hope the Supreme Court rams through a coup -- it's pretty stupid to trot out as much racism and anti-Americanism as they did at Madison Square Garden, if only to stroke Trump's ego.

Sure, the stock market analysts, betting sites and predictive polling are showing an increasingly bullish chance for a GOP sweep, but Harris still polls out at a 1.5 percent national lead no matter what side of the fence you're sitting on. Yeah, in the past that's meant swing states usually wind up well below that number, but Trump hasn't broken through 47 percent support this entire election. And women are outvoting men by huge margins everywhere. And past performance isn't a predictor of future results.

I've said it before, but this election is going to be decided by women and minorities, not white men. And it's a tossup, with just as many opportunities for Harris to win as there are for Trump. Turnout is huge. And the polls are undercounting the undercurrent of people sick of Mr. Orange Cheeto.

I'm certain very few Puerto Ricans were voting for Trump even before last night, but the outrage from not only them but the entire Hispanic community this morning is palpable. Yeah, whomever Tony Hinchcliffe (never heard of him, to be honest) was is supposed to be a comic, but there was nothing funny about attacking a place and a race that makes up a not-insignificant population in many swing states. And Trump could basically line up 10,000 Puerto Ricans in front of his hotel and gun them down without losing a single Klan vote, but I wonder how many people who might have sat out this election woke up this morning (particularly Cubans and other people of Latinx descent) and gave that decision a second or third thought.

Visceral reactions are very powerful things. And make no mistake, a large group of people are having a visceral reaction to the words and actions in New York. Yes, he's been saying this crap for months but no one will be able to Trump-wash that comment this time.

No matter what conspiracy theories you believe, I still feel Hillary thought she had it won and didn't close the deal at the end. Harris isn't going to make that same mistake, but Donald Trump might have just had his 2016 moment last night.

"But her emails!" may become the new "But he was only joking!"

 

According to this, 472,000 Puerto Ricans in Pennsylvania. 1.17m in Florida.

That just might matter.

Map shows Puerto Rican population in every state