President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

He served up the gopher ball, and Joe hit the biggest one of his career.

 

On MSC, that'll get you an outside room.

 

The grandson was a pretty good tight end for FSU's NC team in 2013.

 

Without further ado ...

** MARK'S FINAL 2024 GEORGIA SPREADSHEET PROJECTION **

*No ballots were touched in this complete and arbitrary mathematical exercise, except for mine.

Donald Trump 2,663,600 49.18%
Kamala Harris 2,684,586 49.57%
Jill Stein/Others 67,522 1.25%

Total turnout: 5,415,708 74.85%

Again, this is just laying 2024 county-by-county raw data across the 159 Georgia counties over the 2020 county-by-county percentages for Trump-Biden-Others, without regard to gender, age, race or demographic shift. As of right now, over 4 million people have already cast ballots. Given a total of 7.2 million potential registered voters and a probable Election Day turnout somewhere between 18-20%, that's what my spreadsheet spit out.

Consider Georgia set a record turnout of 69% in 2020. This would be around 5 percent higher than that, given the record in person turnout (55 percent) that ended Friday.

So how I arrive at numbers for Tuesday? There's a "Goldilocks" bell curve employed, because not all of the 159 counties are going to vote in the same percentages on Election Day. Some counties, like Towns and Union, have already exceeded 72 percent turnout. With fewer than 4,000 potential voters remaining, they're pretty much done voting. On the other hand, Chattahoochee and Jefferson have turnouts well below 40 percent, but looking at their pitiful 2020 turnouts, they're not going to get much more, either.

It's the counties that are closest to the current 2024 average turnout that will continue to track nearest the Election Day total. And guess what? Even though there are still a lot of potential Republican votes remaining in medium to large counties, there more potential Democratic votes in the Atlanta metro to overcome a very slight in person lead for Trump.

And it's quite possible, given the Selzer and NYT/Siena polls, that Harris ALREADY has a substantial lead given the possibility that white women voters are flocking to Harris in large numbers. Consider that 1 in 3 Georgia voters in 2020 was a white female. If just ONE in 100 switches from Trump to Harris, that's conceivably an additional 18,000 voters for Harris and 18,000 fewer for Trump. And that's being ultra conservative.

My numbers also don't consider any Republican defections, the influence of over-65 voters in the Harris camp and may be undercounting minorities. It also doesn't consider whether the rural counties are voting in greater GOP percentages, whether Election Day turnout might be underwhelming and a number of other factors I don't even know about. And it's quite possible I'm just regurgitating the 2020 election percentages.

I won't know until sometime Wednesday if I even came anywhere close to a decent guess. But Harris has a chance in Georgia and possibly better than anyone thought even a couple of weeks ago.

HOWEVER, so does the Orange Cheeto.

 

His grandson shot 59 in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship in 2017. Didn't win the tournament.

 

$1.08?!?

 

Trump is spewing about 75% tariffs on all products from Mexico and 100% on autos made in Mexico. My Toyota made in Mexico, so are Fords and Chevys.
Someone will have to tell him about NAFTA.

 

Even worse, picking Door #2 also gets you Door #3,
which holds a bucket of dog vomit named JD Vance ...

Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) warned voters that Donald Trump’s recent rambling rally appearances are evidence of “cognitive deterioration.”

“You saw, recently, when he was talking about whether he chose electrocution or being eaten by sharks,” the former House speaker told MSNBC’s Jen Psaki on Sunday. “Something’s very wrong there.”

She said the former president’s condition may mean that his running mate, Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio), will eventually be in charge.

“I think people who might be thinking about voting for him have to know that he can’t last as president for four years with his brain deteriorating at the rate that it is,” she said. “They may be voting for President Vance, which would be a horrible thing for our country.”

'He Can't Last': Nancy Pelosi Has Dire Prediction For Trump's 'Deteriorating' Brain

 

I’ve looked forward to your posts @maumann. Really interesting and fun exercise. Thanks for doing it and sharing.

Of course, now I’ll hold you personally responsible if Harris loses Georgia.

 

Definitely. I believe the sheriff still has my cell (number).

 

Do it, Texas! I need this.