President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Think you mean USMCA ... and he signed it.

 

True - he signed it ... which makes it odd that it says, "Unless otherwise provided in this Agreement, no Party shall increase any existing customs duty, or adopt any new customs duty, on an originating good."

You'd think the world's greatest negotiator would know he signed an agreement that dealt with tariffs.

 

I'd be truly shocked if Harris won Texas. I think that only happens in a true disaster scenario for Republicans, where it means like Florida would be the largest state they win. Trump has been around +8 in Texas for most of this cycle, which is outside the margins of even that "holy shit is this true?!?" Iowa poll for Ds.

If that poll repeats similarly across states, then Cruz vs. Allred would be a race to watch. The polls have shown Cruz in relative danger, with 538 putting his chance of winning at "only" 83 percent. Cruz has consistently been up 3 to 5 percentage points for the past few months, with one outlier poll showing Allred up.

 

Trump Media Outsourced Jobs to Mexico Despite Trump’s “America First” Push — ProPublica

 

I have fluctuated back a pessimistic view with Trump again about a field goal favorite in my mind. However, for those seeking a daily source of hope I give you this:

 

I can see Trump winning Texas and Cancun Ted losing. The margins are so close that a very few ticket splitters could tilt it either way.

 

It's interesting. In this unlikely scenario, what does Harris do with a House and a Senate in Democratic hands? At the very least, she'll have to do something about abortion rights.

 

Silly treaties. Fatfuck don't mess with that shit. Nobudduh tellz him whut to dew.

 

Jack shit unless she convinces Democrats to junk the Senate filibuster.

 

Ralston predicting Harris will won Nevada.

 

He blew more than just that game.

Here's the game I was at:

1993 World Series Game 4, Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies: October 20, 1993 | Baseball-Reference.com

 

We're about 29 hours out from the polls closing, but I've seen enough.

Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States.

Why? The key markers:

• I've speculated about this for a while, but the Selzer poll convinced me that Harris' support is being underrepresented in most polls by about 3% due to higher than expected approval amongst white women and older voters.
• The Democrats have a substantially better Get Out The Vote movement than the Republicans, which will enable them to reach voters who have not already voted better on election day.
• While Republicans have performed well in early voting, there is no evidence that they are NEW voters. They are simply voting earlier than they did last year. They are essentially cannibalizing their 2020 vote.
• Abortion measures are on the ballot in Nevada and Arizona, which will help Harris manage less support from Latino voters than Biden received

A 3% shift towards Harris from the polls would mean the following results:

• A win in Nevada by about 2.5%
• A win in Pennsylvania by about 3%
• Wins in Wisconsin and Michigan by about 4%
• Wins in North Carolina and Georgia by about 1.5%
• A win in Arizona by about 0.7%
• It also means Florida, Texas, and Iowa will have a margin at or under 5%

While I think news organizations will be cautious to make race calls, and I think several key states listed above will continue to be slow in counting their vote, I think we'll have strong indications of a Harris win shortly after midnight or so on election day. The race may not be called until late Wednesday or early Thursday - two days ahead of when the race was called for Biden in 2020. Nevada will take the longest due to its mail procedures, but I think the race will be called before Nevada is official.

I do expect that Trump will try to claim victory the moment polls close in the west. I fully anticipate a social media push by Musk and Trump's cohorts to lay claim to that victory. My hope is that there is enough factual evidence from other states that it'll simply look like another outlandish Trump claim rather than something of substance.

FINAL COUNT:
Harris 319, Trump 219