fantasy football (a discussion, not an sj.com league)

most of us aren't competing with each other in fantasy football, so with draft day approaching in a few weeks, what are you thinking about for your draft strategy?

how high do you take reggie bush? is larry johnson your consensus No. 1? will edgerrin james still be valuable now that he plays where careers go to die?

who are your sleepers this year?

 

1. Not in the first five rounds, maybe as a late sleeper.

2. Consensus, not quite. He and LT are 1 and 1a. Can't go wrong with either.

3. I think the Edge still will be a first-round pick, and will have the numbers, barring injury.

4. I'm keeping the sleepers to myself.

 

Kevin Jones and Steven Jackson will have huge years, barring injury.

 

My sleeper of the year is Joe Jurevicius, which is sad, I know.

 

This year, I'm planning on doing something a little different. Usually, I load up on Running Backs, but this year I'm going to load up on wide receivers early and get a couple of decent RBs, instead of drafting three RBs first, then WR.

I'll still use my No. 1 pick on a RB, but I may go WR with my next three picks (Gates at TE counts as WR in my league).

 

I keep hearing how LJ and LT are the top two. Don't forget that guy in Seattle. He scores an occasional TD.

 

the so-called experts seem to rate him lower because of departures on the o-line.

 

I'd still put Alexander No. 2 because if Phillip Rivers struggles, LT won't have a passing game to keep the defense from focusing solely on him.

As for Bush, I see him as a third RB, a guy who'll probably score 8-10 TDs, with a couple kick returns included.

Larry Fitzgerald is the ultimate boom or bust. If Warner stays healthy, which he hasn't done in five years, Fitzgerald could score 15 TDs. If Warner gets hurt, both he and Boldin will struggle to find the end zone. I also can't see James being a Top 10 back in Arizona. The line's just not that good.

 

Big year ahead for Reuben Droughns, and you can probably get him late second early third.

 

If anyone takes Droughns in the second round, they deserve to choke on a dog (dawg) bone.

 

I am sitting on Tiki and Steven Jackson in my keeper league and am feeling very good indeed.

 

Hi guys, been lurking here a little while -- great site -- but this subject matter is right up my alley (well, I think so, anyway), so here goes...

Agree with above poster. Seattle still has a pretty damn good OL, and Pork Chop Womack -- how can you not like an OL named Pork Chop? -- could have started on most teams in the NFL, yet was a reserve (behind Hutchinson at times, though he played most line positions), so they're not losing a ton with Hutch's departure, stud though he is. And they still have Walter Jones, best left tackle in the NFL. Translation: Alexander has been going #1 in many mock drafts I've done, and will probably be the top pick in more as people start weighing the retirement of Willie Roaf in KC and the impact on LJ (though Roaf was hurt a lot last year anyway, missed 6 games, LJ never gained less than 107 yards in non-Roaf games, they still have All-Pros Shields and Waters, and center Wiegmann is one of the better ones, so the KC OL is still top-notch and LJ owners shouldn't panic, nor should you be afraid to take him #1). Me? I like Alexander's consistency and would likely opt for that at #1 over the HUGE upside of LJ; you can't win your league in the first round, but you can lose it, so you want sure things. And his rushing schedule is almost Pop Warner level, with two games apiece against SF, STL, ARIZ, along with other 2005 bottom feeding rush defenses like DET, OAK, NYG, GB. That said, people seem to have also forgotten about that guy named Tomlinson in most mocks (usually #3) based on worries about Rivers, but it's not like Brees was Peyton (though he was experienced, at least), and Gates opens things up. In a points-per-reception league I'd take LT over both LJ and SA in a heartbeat.

Re: Bush, I think he's ranked wayyyyy too high (usually going in the mid-2nd round in most mocks) for a guy who will share carries, is still underswized for an NFL RB, whose resume was built stampeding sub-par PAC-10 defenses (see Arrington, JJ), and whose only real fantasy value could be as a receiving back, although he has the skill to take a 5-yd dumpoff 65 yds to the house. All depends on how Payton wants to use Deuce/how Deuce's knee is, but I personally see about 10-12 carries per game for Bush, 5 or so receptions...that said, Deuce is coming off ACL and is no guarantee to play a full year/play effectively (see Edge after his 2001 ACL surgery, wasn't great again until 2003). My take on Bush is that I'll let my league mates slobber over him too early while I snag a McGahee-type #2 RB, someone who I know will get the lion's share of carries.

Speaking of Edge, I think his TD #s will go up -- if the Cards offense can do one thing it's roll into the red zone -- but his total yardage might go down thanks to not having that solid Colts OL to run behind anymore. Cards OL is still pretty brutal, but those killer WRs will provide him plenty of wide running lanes..and, his receiving skills should still come into play as cement-footed Warner will often dump off to save his own life. Edge is still a first round RB hands down, but in the #5-7 range for me personally. Note: Edge also affectsa another fantasy stud last season, Rackers. Don't pull trigger too early on Rackers this year -- he was $$ last year because defenses knew the Cards HAD to throw in the red zone/had no running options, so they just hung back and doubled Boldin/Fitz, and the Cards could never pound in the short TDs. Hence, more FGs. Wait several rounds more and take two kickers in the "other" high octane NFC West offenses, SEA's Josh Brown or STL's Jeff Wilkins, who've been going much later than Rackers.

Without getting into much detail, here are my sleepers/slightly under-the-radar later round value picks: Derrick Mason (back with McNair, with whom he put up his best career #s), Frank Gore (improved OL, Barlow not an obstacle), Chris Perry (will be this year's LJ if Rudi ever went down), Ben Watson (an absolute beast, not many WR options in NE, should put up top 5 TE numbers yet can be had in rounds 10-12), Branch (if/when he signes, of course, but the #1 WR in last year's top passing offense is still often overlooked), Michael Clayton (healthy again, can be had late, will bounce back), and a reeeeeal deep sleeper -- Jerious Norwood in ATL. He's playing behind two brittle RBs (Dunn, Duckett) and they're apparently loving this kid so far.

Anyway, here's my first round as of now for standard 12-team performance leagues:

Alexander
LJ
LT
Portis
Tiki
Edge
SJackson
Rudi
Ronnie Brown
Lamont Jordan
Cadillac
Domanick Davis

Notes: I never take a QB first, ever, so I didn't include Peyton but he's beein going late 1st round in some mocks. Early/Mid 2nd is when the top stud WRs start flying off the board, usually Smith (before hammy injury), Chad, Owens, Holt, FItz, Moss, Marvin, Boldin, mixed in with the mid-late 2nd round RBs like McGahee, Westbrook, Julius/Kevin Jones, Chester Taylor, Willie Parker, Jamal Lewis, Dillon etc.

Anyway, my 2¢....good luck this season.