President '08

I think it will be McCain or Giuliani...

 

What are Giuliani's qualifications, besides grace under fire on 9/11? Serious question here. Would he ever have had further political aspirations if that didn't happen? If it was Sears Tower, would we all be talking about President Daley?

 

Just a quick note. If someone started a thread about who'll win the 3008 World Series, we'd all agree they were nuts. Too little data.
The race for the White House is no different. There's WAY too much time for events to shape the race.
In the fall of 1975, I was living in Cambridge and one of my roommates was a cabbie in town. He came back from his shift one evening very happy.
"I did great today," he said. "I had one customer who had me drive from place to place all over town for five hours, Cambridge, Brookline, Newton. He was a little weird, though."
"How so?"
"He said he was running for president."
"Who was he?"
"I forget the name. He was from Georgia."
That's right. Jimmy Carter. That was ONE year before the election.

 

I agree there's a lot of time between now and November 2008, but things have changed a little bit in the past 30 years. Anybody who waits until the latter half of 2007 to make himself or herself known as a viable presidential candidate might as well not even run.

 

I agree with M_Gee. It's way, way too early to start handicapping this thing.

This is, what, the first election since 1952 in which neither a sitting president nor VP is running? That election was wide-open, too, but Ike emerged as the favorite eventually. This election will probably develop the same way.

There isn't one candidate you can say is going to roll to a nomination. But someone eventually will. Who they'll be is anybody's guess at this point.

 

I disagree... I think the days of a candidate coming out of nowhere to win the presidency (Clinton in 1992) are long gone... I think by early 2007 we're going to have a pretty good idea who the top three or four from each party will be...

 

Top three or four?
If you've still got 6-8 viable candidates, you don't have a clue who the nominees are, let alone the eventual winner. And there are several wildcard issues out there that make this next election sui generis in my lifetime, anyway.

 

Guiliani has skeletons that will come out — paging Bernie Kerik — and is already under fire for his actions before 9/11 in a new book that is getting a lot of play.

Let's put it this way, we're in lousy shape if the nominee comes from New York — either party, as both are flawed candidates, opportunists who've both been more interested in their PR than real policy. And it will be a bloodbath if either is a nominee.

 

A name that was mentioned in the previous thread was Evan Bayh, former governor and current senator from Indiana. Moderate to conservative Dem, he would receive a lot of crossover support and be a lock for 270 against a far-right candidate. Only problem is, he will never receive the Dem nomination because of the far-left element that dominates the Democratic Party.

Reps have a way of giving the nomination to someone when it's their "time". That's what they did for Bob Dole in 1996, and that's what they will do for John McCain in 2008.

 

To all those trying to handicap the race at this stage, remember this little tidbit -- a sitting Senator hasn't won the presidency since JFK.

 

Has anyone heard anything about the Governor from Iowa? Apparently many think he could be the next Prez.

 

I'd like to see John Edwards or Bob Kerrey win the presidency in '08.