2012 MLB Regular Season Running Thread

Move them to Montreal

 

I don't care. I want an Orioles win and a Rays loss today. I'm petrified of the thought of Tampa still being within three games when that series starts on Monday. I keep having flashbacks to 1989.

 

As much as I'd love to see the Orioles fall apart on the final weekend like the Sox did last season, I really don't want any part of the Rays in the playoffs.

Orioles have a decent chance of qualifying for the playoffs despite allowing more runs than they've scored over 162 games.

At some point, the fairy dust Buck has glued to his nut sack will wear off and this shitty team will start being shitty again.

 

Not any more! O's are +7 now after last night's rout!

 

It would be the height of awesomeness if the O's get crushed a couple times the rest of the way, then squeak out a bunch of one-run wins and take the division while allowing more runs than they scored.

Gotta think that would be a first, but maybe not?

 

I'm sure there have been others, but the one I remember of course is the 2007 Arizona Diamondbacks, who won their division at 90-72 despite being outscored 712-732, then promptly swept the Cubs in the division series.

The thing with run differential is that it's always the best bet in the long run, but it's never a sure thing. And there's not enough left for there to be a long run, so the Orioles have as good a chance as anyone.

 

The 1987 Twins were outscored for the season, and they won the World Series.

 

Yes, but IIRC, they were roughly even when they clinched and then Tom Kelly sat his starters and mostly rested his pitchers for the rest of the regular season.

ETA:

The Twins scored 786 and allowed 806 in 1987. They clinched at Texas with 5-3 win on September 28. They did not win another game in the regular season, falling:

7-5
2-1
6-3
4-2
10-1

For a net negative of 17 of those 20 runs.

Also of note -- they were on the losing side of 31 losses of five runs or more. Not surprising, since the back end of their rotation really was weak. But they were 24-22 in one-run games. So it wasn't like the were an anomaly there.

 

The 1997 Giants allowed nine more runs than they scored while finishing 90-72 and winning the division on the second-to-last day. They had an amazing knack for getting blown out and then winning four of the next five. I remember they lost one game 19-3.

 

Just for fun, from the Baseball Prospectus preseason file:

BALTIMORE ORIOLES


PECOTA Team Projections
Record: 72-90
Team WARP: 21.0
Team TAv: .264
Runs Scored: 701
Runs Allowed: 798
Team FRAA: -11.4

1) How will Dan Duquette's offseason moves affect the Orioles this season?
JC: The chairs on the deck of the S.S. Oriole are just in a different order. It was fun to watch them play spoiler in September again, but unless the Baltimore’s PR department puts out a new calendar that shows every month being September, I do not see that much reason to get excited about the team.

RA: Excited might be the wrong word. I think there is more intrigue now than before. The rotation is going to be a unit worth watching—for better or worse—because of what Duquette did this winter.

JC: They've added more arms to the staff, but it was a lot of quantity and little quality. The best move they made was the internal promotion of Jim Johnson to the closer role and the cheap addition of Wilson Betemit.

RA: Sometimes quantity is a stand-in for depth. Duquette seemingly improved the roster in that sense. Not to the extent where you think of Baltimore as being a deep team, but they’re deeper than before. Nothing the Orioles could have done this offseason would have catapulted them into contention, so taking it slow and being realistic about the next two-to-three years makes sense. I can see the logic in adding stopgap veterans like Endy Chavez, Luis Ayala, and Betemit too.

JC: While it was not a terribly necessary move given their roster construction at the time, it is hard to go wrong given the cost.

 

In addition to the aforementioned 1987 Twins, 1997 Giants and 2007 Diamondbacks, the other teams to get outscored yet make the postseason were:

2005 Padres
1984 Royals