2014 NFL draft thread (no longer too early)

[Mizzougrad96]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

I will be surprised if Clowney goes No. 1, and not because he's not the best player in the draft (I think he is...).

Houston needs a quarterback. Cleveland needs a quarterback. Jacksonville needs a quarterback. Oakland probably needs a quarterback. St. Louis probably needs a quarterback.

Houston did take Mario Williams several years back and while he wasn't a bad pick, the smarter move would have been to trade down with one of the teams that wanted to move up to take Reggie Bush.

I think if Houston keeps the pick, they'll take Bridgewater, Manziel or Bortles. If a team trades for the No. 1 pick, it will be to get a QB. Clowney will go anywhere between No. 2 and No. 6.

 

[JC]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

What in the heck does that have to do with what LTL is saying?

How many business majors are there for the education in business? Or are they there for the piece of paper that allows them to go work Price Waterhouse?

Under LTL's logic, if a kid has a chance to work for PW for say $100,000 a year, he should jump at it instead of finishing school, even though finishing school will probably allow him to make $200,000 after he graduates. He also has no real knowing if PW will even keep him after two years?

If a kid is a lock for a first or second round pick, he should probably leave early. But to leave college football to be a seventh-round pick? No.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/chris-thompson/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/jawan-jamison/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/leveon-bell/

Thompson stayed all four years and became a fifth-round pick. He has $185,000 guaranteed. Jamison went pro after two years of college, was drafted in the seventh round and has nothing guaranteed. Bell went in the second round and has $2.276 mil guaranteed.

You've completely missed the point of what he has said.

 

[93Devil]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

What in the heck does that have to do with what LTL is saying?

How many business majors are there for the education in business? Or are they there for the piece of paper that allows them to go work Price Waterhouse?

Under LTL's logic, if a kid has a chance to work for PW for say $100,000 a year, he should jump at it instead of finishing school, even though finishing school will probably allow him to make $200,000 after he graduates. He also has no real knowing if PW will even keep him after two years?

If a kid is a lock for a first or second round pick, he should probably leave early. But to leave college football to be a seventh-round pick? No.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/chris-thompson/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/jawan-jamison/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/leveon-bell/

Thompson stayed all four years and became a fifth-round pick. He has $185,000 guaranteed. Jamison went pro after two years of college, was drafted in the seventh round and has nothing guaranteed. Bell went in the second round and has $2.276 mil guaranteed.

This is going to be a good entry for the ever-growing "Devil is dumb" crowd.

Perhaps you didn't see my huge type, but I am talking about players that aren't going to get a degree anyway -- which, I would suspect, is nearly all of the early entrants minus maybe a few high first-rounders striking while the iron is hottest. (And in those cases I would further assume that the player makes arrangements to get his degree either in the off-season or by correspondence or independent study.)

You need a degree to work at Price Waterhouse. You don't need a degree to work in the NFL.

Take a 2013 early entrant and assume he does indeed end up on a practice squad. By 2014 he can either have:

--At least $100,000 in income, no degree, and a year of NFL training
--No income, no degree, and no NFL training

Of the guys on your list, Thompson finished the season on IR. He made $405,000 this season, which is nice because his college eligibility was up. Jamison was promoted to the 53-man roster on Dec. 10 and stayed there for the final three weeks. His total pay was $184,000, which is really REALLY nice because he was going to make nothing at Rutgers. So whatever he earns next year is just added to the plus side of the ledger as opposed to what he would have gotten after two more years of wear-and-tear in college. And as this story notes, he and his mom and his daughter needed the money.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/dec/24/mom-driving-force-redskins-running-back-jawan-jami/?page=all

Thompson is 23, Jamison is 22. If Thompson had ditched his final two years at Florida State and gone pro, even by ending up on the practice squad, he'd have earned almost $250,000 more in a career that now could very well be over.

What if Jamison washes out after 1-2 years in the pros? Would he be better served washing out after being drafted in the fifth or fourth round, which probably happens if he plays another season of college ball?

The assumption that every player drafted gets paid is wrong. They don't.

The NFL is cold. They just don't carry guys around waiting for potential to develop. I think a player, even if they are the most marginal of students, that is helped dramatically by the tutors and benefits they receive from athletic departments should try to stick around for that piece of paper. A college degree is worth a lot more than $184,000, and you are pretty much beating the odds to get that $184,000.

You can make a much, much better case to leave school with basketball because there are tons of leagues to pay these kids, but in football, there are two. That's it.

Fourteen players drafted in the sixth or seventh rounds of 2010 NFL draft never played in an NFL game. Over 30 of them are already out of the league.

 

[JC]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

What in the heck does that have to do with what LTL is saying?

How many business majors are there for the education in business? Or are they there for the piece of paper that allows them to go work Price Waterhouse?

Under LTL's logic, if a kid has a chance to work for PW for say $100,000 a year, he should jump at it instead of finishing school, even though finishing school will probably allow him to make $200,000 after he graduates. He also has no real knowing if PW will even keep him after two years?

If a kid is a lock for a first or second round pick, he should probably leave early. But to leave college football to be a seventh-round pick? No.

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/chris-thompson/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/washington-redskins/jawan-jamison/

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/pittsburgh-steelers/leveon-bell/

Thompson stayed all four years and became a fifth-round pick. He has $185,000 guaranteed. Jamison went pro after two years of college, was drafted in the seventh round and has nothing guaranteed. Bell went in the second round and has $2.276 mil guaranteed.

This is going to be a good entry for the ever-growing "Devil is dumb" crowd.

Perhaps you didn't see my huge type, but I am talking about players that aren't going to get a degree anyway -- which, I would suspect, is nearly all of the early entrants minus maybe a few high first-rounders striking while the iron is hottest. (And in those cases I would further assume that the player makes arrangements to get his degree either in the off-season or by correspondence or independent study.)

You need a degree to work at Price Waterhouse. You don't need a degree to work in the NFL.

Take a 2013 early entrant and assume he does indeed end up on a practice squad. By 2014 he can either have:

--At least $100,000 in income, no degree, and a year of NFL training
--No income, no degree, and no NFL training

Of the guys on your list, Thompson finished the season on IR. He made $405,000 this season, which is nice because his college eligibility was up. Jamison was promoted to the 53-man roster on Dec. 10 and stayed there for the final three weeks. His total pay was $184,000, which is really REALLY nice because he was going to make nothing at Rutgers. So whatever he earns next year is just added to the plus side of the ledger as opposed to what he would have gotten after two more years of wear-and-tear in college. And as this story notes, he and his mom and his daughter needed the money.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/dec/24/mom-driving-force-redskins-running-back-jawan-jami/?page=all

Thompson is 23, Jamison is 22. If Thompson had ditched his final two years at Florida State and gone pro, even by ending up on the practice squad, he'd have earned almost $250,000 more in a career that now could very well be over.

What if Jamison washes out after 1-2 years in the pros? Would he be better served washing out after being drafted in the fifth or fourth round, which probably happens if he plays another season of college ball?

The assumption that every player drafted gets paid is wrong. They don't.

The NFL is cold. They just don't carry guys around waiting for potential to develop. I think a player, even if they are the most marginal of students, that is helped dramatically by the tutors and benefits they receive from athletic departments should try to stick around for that piece of paper. A college degree is worth a lot more than $184,000, and you are pretty much beating the odds to get that $184,000.

You can make a much, much better case to leave school with basketball because there are tons of leagues to pay these kids, but in football, there are two. That's it.

Fourteen players drafted in the sixth or seventh rounds of 2010 NFL draft never played in an NFL game. Over 30 of them are already out of the league.

And what good does staying and not getting a degree do for them?

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

Fourteen players drafted in the sixth or seventh rounds of 2010 NFL draft never played in an NFL game. Over 30 of them are already out of the league.

So 72 did? So there's an 84 percent chance that you'll play in an NFL game if you're drafted anywhere at all? That sounds pretty good to me if I'm deciding between playing for free with no chance of getting a degree, and playing for money.

Also there's nothing to say they can't get the degree later. Tons of people get degrees later in life. I think you have eight of them.

 

[93Devil]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

JC, the money paid to a fifth round pick and a seventh round pick is significant. I would think working your way up the draft board would be another incentive.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

JC, the money paid to a fifth round pick and a seventh round pick is significant. I would think working your way up the draft board would be another incentive.

Do you have any evidence that's what happens? For every anecdote you can give me that it does, I can give you one that it doesn't (hello, Marcus Lattimore).

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

JC, the money paid to a fifth round pick and a seventh round pick is significant. I would think working your way up the draft board would be another incentive.

Do you have any evidence that's what happens? For every anecdote you can give me that it does, I can give you one that it doesn't (hello, Marcus Lattimore).

Except Lattimore went back to school because he was ALREADY recovering from knee surgery. And he was still a fourth-round pick. Bad example all around. And McGahee's injury was the same, and he STILL went in the first round. So I think both of those guys showed enough before their injuries to make them draftable anyway. Would either have been selected higher if they had come out as juniors? Doubtful.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

McGahee would have been drafted a lot higher in the first round if not for the injury, at a time when that meant many millions of dollars of difference.

Devil is disregarding the change in the draft since the rookie cap was implemented. There isn't nearly so much difference anymore. That's the whole crux of my argument, the equation has changed away from an emphasis on initial draft position and toward service time and earlier free agency.

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

McGahee would have been drafted a lot higher in the first round if not for the injury, at a time when that meant many millions of dollars of difference.

Devil is disregarding the change in the draft since the rookie cap was implemented. There isn't nearly so much difference anymore. That's the whole crux of my argument, the equation has changed away from an emphasis on initial draft position and toward service time and earlier free agency.

Missed my point, but your point is noted. My point was that the injuries didn't affect their stock as much as if they had come out after the previous season. As for the changing equation, most of these kids still need to be drafted, and a lot of them won't be. I agree that it would be great to sit on a practice squad and make a few hundred thousand dollars in a few years, but I would guess most of these are hoping for CAREERS in the NFL, and very few undrafted free agents, or 5th-rounders for that matter, will get that. Certainly, getting some nice paychecks in the short term is better than quitting school and working at deck's, but I would bet that most of these guys are expecting more.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

But they aren't going to get "more" by burning another year in college. Clearly that's what they believe based on the huge increase in early entries. It's nice of everybody to suggest they stay in school and still not get that degree, though.

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

But they aren't going to get "more" by burning another year in college. Clearly that's what they believe based on the huge increase in early entries. It's nice of everybody to suggest they stay in school and still not get that degree, though.

I'm not suggesting that. I'm suggesting they stay in school and improve their draft stock, as are others. If they truly want to play in the NFL, then they're more likely to make it as a second- or third-rounder than as a fifth-rounder or an undrafted free agent. If you don't believe that, I don't know what to tell you. That's why this is a tough discussion. Every case is different. If a kid had no desire to be in school and doesn't see a chance of improving his stock, then sure, go ahead and make some cash for a couple of years. But for those who hope for a career in the NFL, they need to be sure they are ready. I don't think a guy like Benjamin is good enough to make it yet. But he is one who will get his shot because of his size and speed. That's the reason I used James Wilder Jr. as an example in an earlier post. I think he made the right choice for him, because he is at a school with several other very good running backs, in an offense that values speed more than power. Other than transferring, he had no other choice, since he likely had nothing to gain by going back.