2014 NFL draft thread (no longer too early)

[LongTimeListener]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

And I still don't know where the evidence is that staying in school improves a player's draft stock in any meaningful way. As the college and pro games get farther apart in style, I would expect this connection to become even more sketchy.

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

And I still don't know where the evidence is that staying in school improves a player's draft stock in any meaningful way. As the college and pro games get farther apart in style, I would expect this connection to become even more sketchy.

I don't know that there are any hard numbers out there, but I believe that a guy like Brett Hundley will be a better quarterback with another year of coaching and playing experience. Sure, he might get better coaching in the NFL, and he probably would have been a first-round pick either way, but maybe he thought he needed more seasoning, physically or mentally or both. And not all the players who are declaring are even going to be drafted. So if they want to go to the NFL now to get better coaching, what happens when they don't make the team? There is no right answer here, because every player has different reasons, but I wouldn't expect a young kid like Jameis Winston to jump right into the NFL. And he could have been a high pick this year given the chance. But I think he'll be even better after a year or two more at FSU.
Point is, these are young kids who haven't played the game at a high level for very long, and playing at the highest level takes a lot of practice and coaching, which they can get in college. Would Johnny Manziel have been a top-5 pick after last season? Not even close. But he proved he could do it for another year, and now he's being talked about as the No. 1 guy to Houston. Might not happen, but he very likely would not have even gone in the first round had he been allowed to come out after last year.

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

Just an example of what I am talking about. ...

http://msn.foxsports.com/college-football/story/klatt-evaluating-nfl-draft-decisions-for-manziel-mariota-and-more-011514

Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Florida State

Verdict: Bad Call

Physically he is everything NFL teams want in a receiver -- big and physical with the un-coachable ability to elevate and win the jump ball in traffic, just like he did to win the BCS National Championship Game against Auburn. However, he is extremely raw and lacks the discipline to run consistent routes.

Every QB is relying on his WRs to produce a picture in terms of spacing against zone defense and create separation (win) against man defense, but Benjamin doesn't do either consistently. Most shrewd NFL organizations will evaluate this position based on two criteria: can you get open and can you catch the ball.

As we saw in the BCS title game, Benjamin does not catch the ball consistently and can lose his way in space. If he would have returned to FSU and developed these weaknesses into strengths, he could have been a top 7-9 pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. As it stands now, a team will need to reach on Benjamin if he is selected before No. 28.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

LOL you just posted a frickin' Denver radio guy's analysis on whether Kelvin Benjamin is worthy of being the ninth pick or the 28th. Whatever, man. Like that's some kind of guarantee.

The 28th pick last year got $6.1 million guaranteed.

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

LOL you just posted a frickin' Denver radio guy's analysis on whether Kelvin Benjamin is worthy of being the ninth pick or the 28th. Whatever, man. Like that's some kind of guarantee.

The 28th pick last year got $6.1 million guaranteed.

LOL, indeed. I could give a shirt what you think of the analysis. Apparently, it's nothing but dollars and cents for you. I'd prefer that these guys actually try to be the best they can be and work hard to improve their games and increase their earning potential if they can. If you don't believe that maturity, practice and repetitions make you a better football player, and improve your draft stock, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[JC]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

They don't practice in the NFL?

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

They don't practice in the NFL?

Try reading what I wrote. Yes, they practice and coach in the NFL. If you make the team. And the higher pick you are, the more practice and coaching (and even money!) you're going to get.

 

[JC]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

They don't practice in the NFL?

Try reading what I wrote. Yes, they practice and coach in the NFL. If you make the team. And the higher pick you are, the more practice and coaching (and even money!) you're going to get.

You are advising someone projected in the first round to stay so he can be picked higher in the first round the following year. The risk involved in doing that is insane. Injury, stock dropping it would be idiotic for a player to do that. IF you are talking late rounders than fine but you are getting plenty of coaching whether you are the 9th or 28th pick and you are a year closer to cashing in which more than makes up the difference in money.

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

They don't practice in the NFL?

Try reading what I wrote. Yes, they practice and coach in the NFL. If you make the team. And the higher pick you are, the more practice and coaching (and even money!) you're going to get.

You are advising someone projected in the first round to stay so he can be picked higher in the first round the following year. The risk involved in doing that is insane. Injury, stock dropping it would be idiotic for a player to do that. IF you are talking late rounders than fine but you are getting plenty of coaching whether you are the 9th or 28th pick and you are a year closer to cashing in which more than makes up the difference in money.

Well, I posted Benjamin because I agree with the assessment after watching him drop passes in the title game. You are mostly right on that, but I think a top-10 pick is going to get more attention from the coaching staff, and be more likely to get on the field quickly, than a late first-rounder. But for anyone not in the first or second round, it makes more sense to stick around for more seasoning. Of course, there are tons of factors.

You play football in college for two reasons. To get to the NFL or to get a degree. The longer you play the better you are going to get, in most cases. If you just have no interest in school and are an above-average player and want to take a shot at the NFL, fine with me. But I don't think it's smart if you're doing well enough to keep playing and boost your chances of playing for a long time in the NFL.

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_2013_NFL_Draft_early_entrants

Of the 79 players who chose not to use up their college eligibility, including 6 seniors who could possibly have played one more season, these are the numbers:

25 were not drafted at all
18 others did not go in the first three rounds
15 went in the first round
So more than half the guys were not high picks.

IMO, setting aside my discussion of Benjamin's shortcomings (Kiper projects him at 22), if you are an elite player, then it makes sense to come out early. And most of these kids are NOT elite players. Like I said, if they will never be elite players, then go for it. But getting more work in college could benefit a lot of these kids.

Side note: I don't think Benjamin is an elite player either, but he can be and he will be drafted in the first round because of his size and potential, as I have said all along.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

I think a top-10 pick is going to get more attention from the coaching staff, and be more likely to get on the field quickly, than a late first-rounder.

This is awesome. Yes, teams get one first-round pick but they are going to care more about him if they picked him ninth than 28th.

Jesus. That's Devil territory dumb right there.

 

[BDC99]

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

I think a top-10 pick is going to get more attention from the coaching staff, and be more likely to get on the field quickly, than a late first-rounder.

This is awesome. Yes, teams get one first-round pick but they are going to care more about him if they picked him ninth than 28th.

Jesus. That's Devil territory dumb right there.

It's not a matter of caring. If he is on the field more, he will get more coaching attention. If he is a top-10 pick he will likely be on the field more. This conversation is pointless anyway. If a guy is a first-round pick he made a decent decision to leave early. But there are still some who could improve and be a higher pick. Some of you are hung up on my bringing up Benjamin, and I don't think he made a bad decision but I think he would be a better player if he played at FSU for another year. Provided he didn't get hurt, of course.