2018 NFL off-season thread: Mr. Alex Smith goes to Washington

[sgreenwell]

I'll put this Casserly quote along with the Mike Lombardi quote saying that Doug Pederson is less qualified to coach a team than anyone he's ever seen in his 30-plus years in the NFL.

Lombardi at least apologized for that once they beat the Falcons, I think, and also picked them to win the Super Bowl. Does Casserly ever walk back some the ridiculous shirt he's said over the years?

 

[CD Boogie]

The more I read, the more I think the team is going to lock up Bell long term. I still think it is a terrible idea. The guy has been suspended for violations of the league's drug policy twice, last year broke a streak of three seasons ended early by injury and his average per carry dropped dramatically in 2017.

Also, all of the offensive talent in the world isn't going to matter if they don't get help for the defense. They are a mess at inside linebacker and safety. They can't just rely on the draft to fix those problems and it's foolish to think Shazier will be back.

Bell is the best RB in the league. Sure he's a pain in the ass sometimes, but he's a generational talent at that position and you can't let him walk for nothing. Who would they plug in? James Conner? Bell's ability to line up wide is a huge part of his value. You can't replicate that with any other back in the league.

The defense is shoddy because they've whiffed with the later round picks in recent years. Watt was a nice grab, but they've had no success finding talent down the draft board, and that had been a strength for a long time. Guys like Aaron Smith (4th round), William Gay (5th) Ike Taylor (4th) and Brett Keisel (7th) were all longtime starters drafted after the third round. The Steelers are barely connecting lately on their first-round defensive picks (Jarvis Jones, especially), much less their later picks.

They sure as heck know how to find wideouts, though.

 

[outofplace]

Bell is the best RB in the league. Sure he's a pain in the ass sometimes, but he's a generational talent at that position and you can't let him walk for nothing. Who would they plug in? James Conner? Bell's ability to line up wide is a huge part of his value. You can't replicate that with any other back in the league.

The defense is shoddy because they've whiffed with the later round picks in recent years. Watt was a nice grab, but they've had no success finding talent down the draft board, and that had been a strength for a long time. Guys like Aaron Smith (4th round), William Gay (5th) Ike Taylor (4th) and Brett Keisel (7th) were all longtime starters drafted after the third round. The Steelers are barely connecting lately on their first-round defensive picks (Jarvis Jones, especially), much less their later picks.

They sure as heck know how to find wideouts, though.

I know why the defense is shirt. My concern is they won't do anything in free agency to find help. Throwing the same unit out there to start next season that they finished with this year will not cut it. Committing to Bell long term makes it even harder to go get help where they need it most.

Regarding Bell, none of what you posted refutes my issues with him. I'm not saying they should let him go now. I'm saying they should franchise him one more time. Running backs don't last long in the NFL and he has added risk factors with the history of drug suspensions and injuries and the heavy workload in 2016 and 2017. The drop in his average per carry should be a big concern, yet you glossed right over it. I still think he is as good as any back in the league, though Gurley is right there with him. The question is how much longer he can maintain that level and I think that time is shorter than you realize.

 

[Hermes]

Did the Patriots just use Lombardi as a canary in the coal mine? Like, if he said something was a good idea, did they just do the opposite? Was that his role?

 

[exmediahack]

While not terrible smooth, I don't fault McDaniels in a major way over this.

It happens. Cold feet. Perhaps you just don't like an ownership situation. Perhaps your wife says "absolutely not" to a move. Perhaps your current boss really shows the love. This happens.

I've had this happen twice in my career. Three years ago, the money was great. Schedule perfect. Top station. Only we couldn't find a suitable school district within a 30 minute drive of the station. That was a huge issue. I couldn't do it.

Fifteen years ago, landed a sports job in my hometown. Couldn't freakin believe it. Especially couldn't believe it when the station leaked to the paper they were going to hire me. All of a sudden my phone blows up with congrats. Dream come true for a hometown kid? Not so much. The station had never even talked with me since the interview. No salary figure. No start date.

"Well, it's already out there," the news director said. "You're not going to say 'no' to what we offer now, are you?"

I did. It was agonizing for three days.

Until you sign the contract, it's not a deal. It's never a deal.

 

[CD Boogie]

I know why the defense is shirt. My concern is they won't do anything in free agency to find help. Throwing the same unit out there to start next season that they finished with this year will not cut it. Committing to Bell long term makes it even harder to go get help where they need it most.

Regarding Bell, none of what you posted refutes my issues with him. I'm not saying they should let him go now. I'm saying they should franchise him one more time. Running backs don't last long in the NFL and he has added risk factors with the history of drug suspensions and injuries and the heavy workload in 2016 and 2017. The drop in his average per carry should be a big concern, yet you glossed right over it. I still think he is as good as any back in the league, though Gurley is right there with him. The question is how much longer he can maintain that level and I think that time is shorter than you realize.

I glossed over it bc it's only one year and I don't like to overreact about a guy who is 25. RB's YPC fluctuate, it happens. Check out Emmitt Smith

I guess you can try to call his bluff and franchise him again, but he's said he will retire. Pay the man his money, he's worth it. Draft a difference maker on defense, maybe trade Bryant for a defender. But I think it starts with locking down Bell.

 

[LanceyHoward]

Did the Patriots just use Lombardi as a canary in the coal mine? Like, if he said something was a good idea, did they just do the opposite? Was that his role?

Lombardi was working in New England for minimum wage. He was still under contract to Cleveland and the Patriots could pay a nominal salary and the Browns the balance of his contract. When that contract expired and Belichick and Lombardi had a meeting. After the meeting which Lombardi went back into broadcasting.

 

[outofplace]

Nobody is trading an impact player for Bryant. That is pure fanboy fantasy.

Bell isn't going to retire if they franchise him. He may pull a similar holdout to last season, but that's it. Emmitt Smith didn't have Bell's injury history or his history of drug suspensions, so that comparison doesn't really hold up. Guys with Smith's durability are very rare. Assuming that Bell is one of them is a shaky proposition at best.

 

[BYH 2: Electric Boogaloo]

Far be it for me to agree with OOP, but while I'd pay for Bell (it's the NFL, if he falls off a cliff, cut him), he's right that Bell is no Smith. Through five seasons, Smith collected 8,759 yards from scrimmage on 1,869 touches while missing only three games. Through five seasons, Bell is at 7,996 yards from scrimmage on 1,541 touches while missing 18 games. Of course the game has changed, and a back who produces nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage a season is more valuable in today's game than he was in the early 1990s game. But it would seem to be a bad idea to bet on Bell's sixth thru 10th seasons being as good as Smith's (7,932 yards from scrimmage on 1,816 touches while missing only two games).

 

[sgreenwell]

Far be it for me to agree with OOP, but while I'd pay for Bell (it's the NFL, if he falls off a cliff, cut him), he's right that Bell is no Smith. Through five seasons, Smith collected 8,759 yards from scrimmage on 1,869 touches while missing only three games. Through five seasons, Bell is at 7,996 yards from scrimmage on 1,541 touches while missing 18 games. Of course the game has changed, and a back who produces nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage a season is more valuable in today's game than he was in the early 1990s game. But it would seem to be a bad idea to bet on Bell's sixth thru 10th seasons being as good as Smith's (7,932 yards from scrimmage on 1,816 touches while missing only two games).

I also agree with OOP - If you can get Bell to play on one-year contracts, you should probably do it, because the end can be brutal and swift for running backs. As long as he shows up, the franchise contracts are fine to me. While his production is really impressive, I think plenty of other teams have shown that you can just use low draft pick or scrap heap running backs and still get production from the position. Better to spend that money on offensive or defensive line.

 

[heyabbott]

 

[Double Down]

What happened with the Pats, in my opinion.

1. Josh was all set to leave.

2. Brady made it clear he forking hates Belichick and doesn't want to play for him if there isn't a buffer between them.

3. Brady makes this clear to Kraft. It's clear from Tom vs Time documentary that Gisele really wants him to retire. He says it's a possibility. Whether it's real or a bluff is irrelevant.

4. Kraft realizes Brady retiring rather than play for Belichick is a disaster scenario. He makes it clear to Bill they need a succession plan. Bill agrees, knowing this will be a better legacy. He might have stayed longer had Garappolo been there, but oh well. He has one more year to coach with his kids and some assurances Josh will keep them on staff after he leaves.

5. Krafts throw more money at Josh and promise Bill will teach him about roster building and all that.

6. Josh looks as the shirtshow that is the Colts, including Luck's shoulder AND moving his family, and realizes NE is way more stable. He's not getting a third shot at being a HC, so he has to get this one right. Why not start it out with two or three years of Brady?

7. McDaniels has already proven he has very little honor with how he behaved on the Denver job. (Read Nate Jackson's book.) Also, the Colts are stupid and poorly run, so they're hardly sympathetic figures. He backs out. I'd bet $20 he barely even called the assistants he hired. He's a douche, but he's good at calling plays.

8. Krafts avert a disaster. All is well for now (at least until Belichick pulls a Parcells and quits in May.)