Goodbye Joe - You Gotta Go !

"...and FB's got the puck in the middle. AQB FLYING down the right wing ...."

 

I really don't think McCain's happening.

I saw him up close at a fight last year.  Oh dear.  The man looked horribly frail.  I can only imagine how he'll be holding up in 2 years.

Normally I'd say why would looks matter, etc. etc.  But when it's that bad....

 

McCain will be 72 in 2008. He won't have the stamina for the campaign trail.

 

Lou--
Interesting phenomenon at work there, though. (I tend to agree with you, on it, BTW). The Bushies did so much sub rosa smearing of McCain in re: his alleged mental fragility -- and the hardcore POW-MIA crowd did even more long ago --that a lot of our colleagues in the campaign press and the national poilitical press are gunshy about suggesting any kind of weakness in him even though he's had serious skin cancer and, in person, as Jones points out in Esquire, he's very fragile.

 

If the media don't push him about health - it won't be an issue just as it wasn't an issue for John Kerry (a cancer survivor who unbelievably wasn't pushed to release his health records). I just think the physical toll of the campaign trail would be too much.

The interesting thing to me is the fragmenting of the Democratic Party. If Lieberman wins the seat as an Independent all hell will break loose and it will be a very long time before the Democratic Party recovers. That's why you have the big guns in CT pulling for Joe. Bill Clinton knows that if Lieberman loses or wins as a Independent then Hillary's chances in 2008 are nil (she's too centrist).

The last time this happened on this scale was back when Teddy Roosevelt ran against Taft and got longshot Woodrow Wilson elected. The Republican Party did not recover from the schism until Ronald Reagan.

BTW - the candidate I want for 2008 is Colin Powell but he too will be over 70 and I think he (and his wife Alma) want no part of the rough and tumble of the campaign trail. He should be made Baseball Commissioner.

 

At the end of the day, I think that Lieberman will fall on his sword if he loses the primary.  Regardless, there is a nice cushy chair for him as FNC as the house Democrat.

I've never loved the guy, but the backlash shows just how angry this administration and this war makes some people.

Lamont is a non-entity -- his name might as well be not-Joe.

 

The last two posts make great points.

FHB, you're so right about the Kos-wing (I'm sort of guessing I know what that is.)

Just as people deal with grief differently, I think liberals who've cringed and suffered through this administration are dealing with it differently.

Some liberals have gotten so mad, they've gone even more left.  The more Bush tortures them, the more left they lean.  At times, one senses some of these people almost enjoy their misery.

Then you have the pragmatists who are desperate for a Democrat, any Democrat, in office so we can do the simple things like pass stem cell.

 

I think this explains the state of politics in Connecticut as well as anything:

 

The GOP has always been the party of "Take turns, wait in line, your time will come" with presidential nominations. The easiest way to become the GOP nominee is to be the runner-up the previous time (that didn't happen in 2000 because Pitchfork Pat was Dole's runner-up and the GOP is crazy, but it ain't stupid). The Hotline pointed out that there has been a real lack of Washington insider quotes slamming McCain, which indicates that Bush/Rove are comfortable with McCain as the front-runner and possible successor. I think the GOP establishment views McCain this way: he isn't our favorite because he seems to enjoy going over the reservation, but he can beat Hillary and any other Dem, so we can live with him. I wouldn't be surprised if McCain goes for the bargain from the GOP Establishment of getting the nomination, privately agreeing to only serve one term if elected and selecting a young, conservative Gov/Sen as his veep (acceptable candidates would include: John Thune, Tim Pawlenty, Mark Green (if he beats Jim Doyle), Sam Brownback, etc.) with the idea of promoting the veep as his natural successor.

 

Just a couple of things I'd like to add to the debate regarding McCain.

1) As the esteemed Fenian has stated, McCain is strongly right-wing on most issues, budgetary especially. He is also a hawk and will be the last man standing on Iraq. What gives him the moderate image is his ability to cherry-pick certain hot-button issues -- torture, say, or the Family Marriage Amendment -- and take the "liberal" stance on them -- just often enough to look less like a Republican breast beater. I don't believe it's a cynical exercise on his part, but it is a little deceptive. His leftist leanings are loud ones. But to erase any doubt, his chief of staff, Mark Salter, told me that if people see him as anying but a strong conservative, "that's their fault, not ours."

2) Regarding his health... He is surprisingly fragile up close, or at least can seem on the verge of collapse -- until you spend any length of time with him. Although he does have physical limitations -- I was surprised at how fucked up his arms are -- I don't think that stamina will be a problem. Follow him on the trail, and you'll be the one left trying to catch your breath. He is perpetual motion, and any kind of delay or idle time irritates the hell out of him. He often talks about Teddy Roosevelt's "crowded hours." He believes in being busy, and he believes that so long as he keeps busy, he will have no problem keeping the pace.

Maybe he is a preordained one-termer, but if that's the case, that single term will be full as hell.

 

More accurately, they put a great emphasis on convincing people that they can appeal broadly. There is a difference; Karl Rove is great at framing the message and defining his candidates, as well as their opponents. He suckers voters into buying his "presentation," knowing that the majority of American voters aren't interested in looking at the whole picture (big and otherwise) and will just buy into whatever sounds or looks the best at first glance. Then, when the post-election reality turns out to be something different (often much so) than the pre-election hype...well, it's too late for them to go back and change their votes anyway.