here's what's in store for ichiro...

[JonnyD]

A corollary to Bill James' Ruth-Lemke argument: Any system that posits that Ichiro as a Hall of Famer is not a sure proposition has some 'splaining to do. I know that's not your argument, Mac, but it sure seems to be that of "JonnyD".

Been away for a few days, but that's simply not the case. Ichiro is definitely a HOF, and I never said otherwise.

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

I didn't until I just looked it up. Turns out Gee was more right than I expected. Gwynn actually has a higher slugging pct, thanks to the doubles, than Ichiro. Same for Boggs. Guess I've always underrated Boggs.

Ichiro's 162 game average for total bases is 292 while Wade Boggs was 270. OK - you can say that was a cherry picked stat - will how about this; for his career Ichiro has hit ,328 at home and .327 on the road. Basically the same player.

Boggs had a home / road split of .354 Home and .302 Road for his career. That .302 is disappointing but it gets worse when you consider his career OPS+ on the road was just 82 (meaning he wasn't even close to league average when playing on the road).

You didn't underrate Boggs. Unless you were speaking about his ability to molest collies.

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

As an aside - I'm a fan of Todd Helton and would support him for the HOF. He is known as a much bigger power hitter than Ichiro yet since 2001 Ichiro has 3044 total bases compared to Helton's 2909. These numbers would be about equal when you factor in Helton missing much of one season with injuries.

Just thought it was interesting that Ichiro is even close to total bases with a guy like Helton.

 

[MankyJimy]

<b>Boggs had a home / road split of .354 Home and .302 Road for his career. That .302 is disappointing but it gets worse when you consider his career OPS+ on the road was just 82 (meaning he wasn't even close to league average when playing on the road.</b>

That's not right. The 82 OPS+ is relative to his total stats, not the rest of the league. I don't disagree with the rest of your point, Boggs was not an elite hitter outside Fenway but was definitely not "below league average".

 

[MankyJimy]

As an aside - I'm a fan of Todd Helton and would support him for the HOF. He is known as a much bigger power hitter than Ichiro yet since 2001 Ichiro has 3044 total bases compared to Helton's 2909. These numbers would be about equal when you factor in Helton missing much of one season with injuries.

Just thought it was interesting that Ichiro is even close to total bases with a guy like Helton.

I'm a fan of Todd Helton, on the Konerko HOF thread a few weeks ago I had him ranked 6th among 1B/DH of his era behind Pujols, Thomas, Thome, Bagwell, and Ortiz. He's having a nice comeback season.

I'm afraid the voters will discount his stats too much because of Coors. Yes, he has slugged under .500 outside of Colorado for his career but many of the Rockies players had massive home/road splits then remained elite hitters after departing (Galarraga, Burks, Holliday, etc.).

 

[MankyJimy]

http://joeposnanski.blogspot.com/2011/07/future-of-hall-of-fame.html

Good column about the HOF by Posnanski. I disagree with a couple things he said:

1) He said Palmeiro wouldn't have made the Hall even without the positive 'roids test. I disagree, he had a career very similar to Eddie Murray (more of a 'compiler' than a 'great' player) and Murray sailed in on the first ballot. And he still had some gas left in the tank, if he wasn't forced out of the game in disgrace he probably gets to 3200 hits/600 homers.

2) He thinks Schilling will make a "slow and steady" climb to induction like Blyleven. I say he's much more likely to go in first-ballot. 216 wins, 3000 ks, an 11-2 postseason record and 'ace' of the first Red Sox world champion team in 86 years will be enough to get him in. The voters have been much more kind to pitchers with a great peak like Schilling than guys like Blyleven who stuck around forever but were never all that great.

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

As an aside - I'm a fan of Todd Helton and would support him for the HOF. He is known as a much bigger power hitter than Ichiro yet since 2001 Ichiro has 3044 total bases compared to Helton's 2909. These numbers would be about equal when you factor in Helton missing much of one season with injuries.

Just thought it was interesting that Ichiro is even close to total bases with a guy like Helton.

I'm a fan of Todd Helton, on the Konerko HOF thread a few weeks ago I had him ranked 6th among 1B/DH of his era behind Pujols, Thomas, Thome, Bagwell, and Ortiz. He's having a nice comeback season.

I'm afraid the voters will discount his stats too much because of Coors. Yes, he has slugged under .500 outside of Colorado for his career but many of the Rockies players had massive home/road splits then remained elite hitters after departing (Galarraga, Burks, Holliday, etc.).

For those who think that Helton is a product of Coors field it is interesting to note that Helton's road OPS is actually higher than George Bretts career OPS

 

[sgreenwell]

As an aside - I'm a fan of Todd Helton and would support him for the HOF. He is known as a much bigger power hitter than Ichiro yet since 2001 Ichiro has 3044 total bases compared to Helton's 2909. These numbers would be about equal when you factor in Helton missing much of one season with injuries.

Just thought it was interesting that Ichiro is even close to total bases with a guy like Helton.

I'm a fan of Todd Helton, on the Konerko HOF thread a few weeks ago I had him ranked 6th among 1B/DH of his era behind Pujols, Thomas, Thome, Bagwell, and Ortiz. He's having a nice comeback season.

I'm afraid the voters will discount his stats too much because of Coors. Yes, he has slugged under .500 outside of Colorado for his career but many of the Rockies players had massive home/road splits then remained elite hitters after departing (Galarraga, Burks, Holliday, etc.).

For those who think that Helton is a product of Coors field it is interesting to note that Helton's road OPS is actually higher than George Bretts career OPS

Position and era issue. Brett is a 3B who played mostly in the 1980s, and Helton is a 1B who played in the greatest offensive era ever.

 

[Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)]

Fair enough regarding position and era but it should be noted that Helton has a career OPS+ of 137 which takes into account era, park factors, etc. while George Brett had a career OPS+ of 135. Helton's 137 is even more impressive when you consider that people like Bonds, McGwire, Sosa et al were and are screwing up the bell curve with their inflated numbers. Even with those other-worldly OPS marks from the steroids guys Helton is historically top shelf.

This isn't a knock on Brett at all either - it is just pointing out that Todd Helton really doesn't get his due.

And that Wade Boggs molests collies.

 

[Mark McGwire]

Here's one for the crowd:

If we're all pretty much in agreement that Ichiro is a lock for the HOF -- and I think we are -- then when does Tony Oliva get the nod?

 

[shockey]

Here's one for the crowd:

If we're all pretty much in agreement that Ichiro is a lock for the HOF -- and I think we are -- then when does Tony Oliva get the nod?

i loved, loved, LOVED tony oliva! but an hof'er? not. even. close. i couldn't find a sinis career b.a. was .304, his oba .353. another player who was allergic to taking walks.

great, great, GREAT player, though. yet another example of how 'special' you should be to get in. like i said, i just couldn't find any significant category in which oliva was special enough.

which i suppose explains why he's never gotten in or even gotten close enough to get in or promoted. i've NEVER heard an outcry over this.

 

[Mark McGwire]

You didn't listen to Blyleven's speech today, then. Or Tony Perez' speech when he went in, either.

And if Ichiro's a lock, what's your argument for keeping Oliva out?

Ichiro: 10+ seasons, .327/.372/.796, 3045 TB
Oliva: 12 (full) seasons*, .304/.353/.830, 3002 TB

Ichiro has a big advantage in SBs (404-86) but Oliva hit 220 homers to 86 for Ichiro.

*Excluding 1972 when Oliva only played 10 games.

Ichiro is better at hitting singles -- which is hard to fault Oliva for, since Ichiro is better at hitting singles than almost anyone who ever played the game. Otherwise, Oliva's the better hitter, by a long shot. Ichiro makes up for that difference somewhat with stolen bases.

Otherwise, they're nearly identical. Rightfielders, top of the order hitters, free swingers, great hitters.

And I have spoken with lots of old school baseball people who are shocked he's not in already.