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Linball

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Boom_70, Feb 10, 2012.

Page 74 of 78
  1. qtlaw

    qtlaw Well-Known Member

    I do not get the people criticizing Lin. Sure he was in NYC and that's no doubt why he exploded. But at season's end, he had nothing from the Knicks. If he wrecked his knee water skiing or broke his hip crossing the street, he was a free agent with no contract. Zip, zero guarantees. (Unlike Jerome James, etc.)

    Until he signed a contract, he had nothing. Knicks offered zip. So he signs finally a formal offer sheet (oral agreements sound great, but are not an enforceable contract because there is a moratorium, which by definition means no enforceable contracts can be agreed upon) and Knicks declined option to match. Then and only then does Lin have anything.

    This is all on the Knicks. Lin is lucky that he got someone to sign him to something, otherwise he's at the mercy of the Knicks and maybe only an offer of a minimum.
     
    qtlaw, Jul 19, 2012
    #877
  2. Webster

    Webster Well-Known Member

    The article says the stock price went up and assumes it must be Lin. It doesn't say why. Same great analysis from a website which touted Lenny Dysktra.
     
    Webster, Jul 19, 2012
    #878
  3. Lugnuts

    Lugnuts Well-Known Member

    Good get by him. Well, it is what you'd initially think: Knicks. Completely. Inept.

    No use trying to make the situation more complicated than that.
     
    Lugnuts, Jul 19, 2012
    #879
  4. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
    Boom_70, Jul 20, 2012
    #880
  5. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    The problem is, that's only useful if you are trading MSG stock, rather than investing in it.

    As a trader, you could have made money trying to time the movements of MSG stock. But you'd have to have been able to predict the rise of Jeremy Lin and then the Knicks letting him go to Houston. How likely was that?

    Ultimately (if you give things long enough) the valuation for a stock is going to base itself on earnings, not hype. Disney stock might go up due to hype over a movie release, for example. But if you look over time, it always reverts back to a valuation based on actual earnings.

    So then the question becomes, how much in future earnings does Jeremy Lin actually translate to. I don't know the answer to that. But I strongly suspect the movements in the stock price have overestimated his impact. I don't know that business well enough to say that for sure, but I do know that some of the obvious things, such as jersey sales, don't just benefit the Knicks. The NBA shares licensing revenue.

    So the calculation would be how much Jeremy Lin translates to in tangible earnings for the Knicks. How much does he really impact ticket sales, for example? Will MSG ratings stay higher permanently because of him, and if so, how much does that mean in added ad revenue? What if the novelty wears off, and he stays a really good player, but not an Asian Jesus?

    You'd then have to consider those things, and put them next to the $50 million or so in luxury tax and added salary (a number I think I read) to try to guess his long-term impact on MSG's earnings.

    At least that is the way an investor, rather than a trader, would do it.

    He definitely will drive earnings. Houston will earn more as a result of having him. The question is how MUCH will he drive earnings for the next 3 years?
     
    The Big Ragu, Jul 20, 2012
    #881
  6. poindexter

    poindexter Well-Known Member

    Henry Abbot:
    Carmelo didn't want him. Wasn't part of Anthony's 'vision' for his Knicks.

    http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8180308/nba-jeremy-lin-six-degrees-separation-family
     
    poindexter, Jul 20, 2012
    #882
  7. The Big Ragu

    The Big Ragu Moderator Staff Member

    I saw that last night and found it unreadable.

    Aside from all the poorly edited, fluffy page filler, it was insider's knowledge without any reason given to believe he's an actual insider. About halfway through the first page, I was wondering if I was reading a description of James Dolan being serviced at a brothel or an objective look at things.
     
    The Big Ragu, Jul 20, 2012
    #883
  8. cranberry

    cranberry Well-Known Member

    Yeah, that was just an awful "here's what I think Melo thinks" pile of bullshit. Are there no editors left in the world?
     
    cranberry, Jul 20, 2012
    #884
  9. Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L)

    Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L) Active Member

     
    Evil Bastard (aka Chris_L), Jul 20, 2012
    #885
  10. Boom_70

    Boom_70 Well-Known Member

    Well stated Ragu but what I was trying to show in the charts is the direct correlation between the arrival of Jeremy Lin and the rise of MSG stock. I was not speaking to the long term investment value of MSG.

    I do think the rise had a lot to do with trader mentality as opposed to investor. The Lin story had a lot of sizzle to it
    that clearly translated into a short term stock rise.

    I believe that the big driver was the increased TV ratings as opposed to increased ticket sales. Also think that the success of The Rangers was a factor.
     
    Boom_70, Jul 20, 2012
    #886
  11. YankeeFan

    YankeeFan Well-Known Member

    [​IMG]

    https://twitter.com/ChandlerParsons/status/247394195151659008/photo/1
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Dec 15, 2014
    YankeeFan, Sep 16, 2012
    #887
  12. Dick Whitman

    Dick Whitman Well-Known Member

    So is he starting in the All-Star Game? Or perhaps hanging out with Tim Tebow instead to reminisce about how they both coulda been somebody?
     
    Dick Whitman, Jan 25, 2013
    #888
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