MLB '24 Postseason thread

We made it! And as a selfish Orioles fan, the fact that all three potential wild card games are in the happy hour window makes me smile. Can watch all three and not have to stay up late since I work early in the mornings most days.

AMERICAN LEAGUE WILD CARD
Detroit at Houston -- 2:30 p.m. all three days
Kansas City at Baltimore -- 4 p.m. Tuesday/Thursday, 4:30 p.m. Wednesday

NATIONAL LEAGUE WILD CARD
N.Y. Mets at Milwaukee -- 5:30 p.m. Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. Wednesday, 8:30 p.m. Thursday
Atlanta at San Diego -- 8:30 p.m. Tuesday/Wednesday, 7 p.m. on Thursday

AL DIVISION SERIES
KC/BAL at N.Y. Yankees
DET/HOU at Cleveland

NL DIVISION SERIES
NYM/MIL at Philadelphia
ATL/SD at L.A. Dodgers

 

I figure:

— Detroit will keep its momentum going
— Baltimore will beat up the KC bullpen
— The Brewers will make short work of the Mets
— The Braves’ duct tape and baling wire will not be enough to advance, and that they should just be happy for one last trip to California.

Yankees-Guardians will be a fun little ALCS. Guardians in 7.
The Brewers will be the “upset” but won’t have enough for the Dodgers in the NLCS. Dodgers in 5, leading to …

More unfortunate Cleveland heartbreak in the World Series. Dodgers in 5.

 

This O's fan is not looking past today, which is as must of a must win as there is. Burnes is the only thing close to a sure thing the Orioles' rotation has. The O's have lost eight straight postseason games, dating to Game 1 of the ALCS against the Royals in 2014. Fall behind early today, and all of that shit weighs on a team that got swept out of the playoffs last year. Have to get it done today. The lineup is as healthy as it's been in some time, and the bullpen has seemingly settled down with some key guys coming back. I'm pumped. Let's fucking go.

 

The Tigers are going 2 and out.

Here's why:

The Astros have made seven consecutive ALCS.
The Astros have only lost 40 games since May 31.
Nearly every player on their roster has extensive postseason experience.
Minute Maid Park is one of the loudest stadiums in the majors, especially with the roof closed.
The Tigers are way worse against lefthanders, like Game 1 starter Framber Valdez.
While the Tigers have played great over the past two months, they've done it in relative obscurity.
Matt Vierling's 2-for-13 for the Phillies represents the entirety of the postseason experience for the Tigers.
Even if the Tigers scratch a couple of runs against Valdez and Skubal pitches like he has all year, the Tigers have no counter for Brown and Blanco.

It's been a fun ride but the carousel stops here. I have a feeling the young kids who have played so loose since the end of July are going to suddenly find themselves in the spotlight this afternoon and the realization they're in the postseason will take them out of their game. Once the Astros get the momentum, the Tigers are toast.

But it's a great learning experience for a team just learning how to win.

 

When the Phillies are hitting, I don't trust the pitchers to hold the lead.
When the Phillies are pitching well, I don't trust the hitters to score runs.
They've played barely .500 ball since the All Star break and I see this year going similar to last year.

 

My all-heart/homerish/wishful thinking picks:

Astros over Tigers
Royals over Orioles

Brewers over Mets
Padres over Braves

Yankees over Royals
Guardians over Astros

Brewers over Phillies
Padres over Dodgers

Guardians over Yankees
Brewers over Padres

Brewers over Guardians in 6


Let’s go.

 

I think there's something to Maumann's point about experience. The Orioles looked spooked last year going through that for the first time. Really hoping the combination of last year's struggles and gained experience and the Royals' relative inexperience in the postseason will net out as a positive.

 

No Suarez on the O's wild card roster, which doesn't surprise me. I think he gets the ball Saturday if Baltimore advances, but you've got to prioritize bullpen arms in a short series. I'd rather have Povich as the long relief fallback in the WC series and Suarez starting on Saturday than the other way around.

 

What I really noticed about the Royals was how pitchable the bottom half of their lineup is. Even if Pasquantino is back, once you get past Perez, there are four or five guys with little power who don't walk much. Witt is going to get his hits. The O's just need to eliminate big innings.

Obviously, it may come down to the bullpens. But if Baltimore can jump on Lugo, Ragans and Singer early, it's advantage Orioles.

 

Us Dodgers fans stressed through the entire season. The pitching staff has been banged up and Betts, Muncy and Freeman all missed stretches of games.

Yet, they somehow had the best record in baseball (thanks Shohei) so maybe they can keep it going. I won't be confident until they make it out of the first round.

 

I’m rooting for the underdogs, Tigers and Brewers (acclaimed mgr leaves and team improves, Ewing effect).

But HOU ALCS streak is amazing, especially in expanded playoff era.

 

Is Yordan Alvarez on the wild card series roster? If not, that's a big bat missing for Houston.