NFL MVP - Brees or Rodgers?

No one's arguing that Brees didn't have an incredible year. Your "new way" of looking at the debate doesn't actually move the debate forward at all.

 

But at SportsJournalists.com we tend to torpedo something instead of just saying it was not quite as good. Brees had great year, but Rodgers season was just better. No shame in being second to Rodgers' 2011 season.

 

You really are adding nothing to this, the debate became a lot more nuanced than that.

 

Can we all agree we want Rodgers' historic season to end the way Manning's and Brady's did?

 

OK, how about this...

There are about 13 categories in which to judge a quarterback mathmatically. Brees is far and away better in one (total yards) and slightly better in another one (comp percentage) and ahead in one because he played an extra game than Rodgers (TD passes).

Rodgers has Brees in passer rating, TD%, INT%, INTs, TDs (if he plays an extra game), head to head, games won, rushing yardage, rushing TDs, yards per attempt and yards per completion.

If Rodgers played indoors, then you might have a case against him, but he did not, so that makes his stats even that much better.

 

I don't see any argument for Brees, and I don't mean that as a knock at him. Obviously, he had a great season, but Rodgers was much better...

 

Brees stats would not be the same without 70% of his games in a dome, they just wouldn't.


[/quote]

Then why was Brees' best season prior to 2009 when he was still primarily an outdoor quarterback?

Look, I'm not saying playing indoors is not more ideal. I am saying that of all the factors that contribute to a quarterbacks' stats, "he plays indoors" should be very, very low on the list, for all the reasons I've mentioned. Especially now with fields so well taken care of, neutralizing the "poor playing surface" factor most of the time.

Four of the bottom five QBs this year played their home games in domes - Bradford, Painter, Skelton and Ponder. Ahead of them, 23 of the top 28 QBs played primarily outdoors.

Why? Where you play is a negligible factor unless the conditions are at an extreme.

 

It shouldn't be that high, but it's definitely not at the bottom of the list. There's a pretty clear splits difference for almost any offense that plays primarily indoors (and it's only magnified in the playoffs, as NFL history clearly shows.)

 

Can't argue with that logic.

 

You are right that there are clear drops in performance for primarily indoor quarterbacks when they play outside. I sort of addressed the issue earlier. But I have read that the overall league stats for indoors vs. outdoors are pretty much the same. I saw a stat where the average pass indoors this season was something like 7.0 yards a play and outdoors it was 7.1. But there were two more attempts a game indoors, perhaps reflecting the willingness to throw more in better conditions.

But I couldn't find those stats right now and they may be a bit old. It surprised me a bit to read that, but when you start thinking of all the great QBs who ran up huge numbers outside and all the bad QBs who have toiled in Domes, it makes sense.

I'd add that it also depends on the player. As mentioned earlier, Tavaris Jackson's numbers in Seattle this year were better than his numbers in Minnesota. And as good as Aaron Rodgers is, he does particularly well playing in a dome. He said he likes wearing his lacrosse shoes in a dome or something.

But this was a comparison between Brady to Brees, not Rodgers. Brady's career passing rating hasn't improved much, if at all, playing indoors. And contrary to widely-held belief, Brees has been just as good outside as inside. In 10 seasons as a starting quarterback, he has had better QB ratings playing outside in five of nine seasons (one year while with SD he only played outside).

In 2010, when it's being argued that Brees was too much of a pampered dome quarterback to perform outdoors, here were Brees' splits:

BY LOCATION CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG LNG TD INT SACK RAT ATT YDS AVG LNG TD
OUTDOORS 129 188 1,350 68.6 7.18 52 12 4 7 101.6 2 2 1.0 3 0
INDOORS 319 470 3,270 67.9 6.96 80 21 18 18 86.6 16 -5 -0.3 7 0

He was MUCH better outside than inside in 2010. Imagine if he, like Rodgers and Brady, got to play ALL his games outside :

 

Didn't Brees throw 5 INTs in the Saints' two losses other than the Packer game? So it can be said that he was a major contributor, if not the #1 reason, in the Saints finishing behind the Packers and 49ers. Not the stuff of MVP legend.

 

Scoop Silverstein of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel with an excellent take on this debate:

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/packers/tom-silverstein-why-rodgers-gets-my-vote-for-mvp-4p3lk9r-136636263.html