Official SJ.com Tour de France running thread

Well, Levi fans, your boy shat the bed today and is pretty much out of contention. Tough day for all the Americans, actually, with the exception of Floyd. Georgie was a bit disappointing, Julich biffed on a seemingly innocent curve and is out for the Tour and Z was slower than most thought. Van de Velde actually had a pretty good ride, though he's obviously not a GC contender like Floyd, George and Levi are -- or rather were, in the case of the latter two. George's poor performance will probably lead to Discovery letting Paolo Salvodelli become the team leader due to his superior mountain skills -- he's won two of the past five Giro d'Italias.

Updating with the latest top 10 GC (overall) rankings.
1 Serguei Gonchar (Ukr) T-Mobile 30.23.20
2 Floyd Landis (USA) Phonak 1.00
3 Michael Rogers (Aus) T-Mobile 1.08
4 Patrik Sinkewitz (Ger) T-Mobile 1.45
5 Marcus Fothen (Ger) Gerolsteiner 1.50
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) T-Mobile
7 Vladimir Karpets (Rus) Caisse d'Epargne 1.52
8 Cadel Evans (Aus) Davitamon-Lotto
9 Denis Menchov (Rus) Rabobank 2.00
10 David Zabriskie (USA) Team CSC 2.02

Four T-Mobile riders in the top six -- so much for missing Ullrich.

Gonchar, Rogers, Sinkewitz, Fothen and Zabriskie aren't overall contenders due to poor climbing skills, so my new rankings for GC contenders would be.

1. Floyd Landis, USA -- Phonak (Won this year's Tour de Georgia, Tour of California and Paris-Nice race; 9th in 2005 Tour, 23rd in 2004 Tour)
2. Cadel Evans, AUS -- Davitamon-Lotto (up-and-coming Aussie who has been tagged as a burgeoning contender for the past few years)
3. Vladimir Karpets, RUS -- Caisse d'Epargne-Illes Balears (won white jersey in 2004 Tour as best young rider)
4. Andreas Kloden, GER -- T-Mobile (finished a surprising 2nd in 2004 Tour but struggled last year and withdrew late in the race)
5. Denis Menchov, RUS -- Rabobank (2005 Vuelta winner after Roberto Heras forfeited win for doping)
6. Christophe Moreau, FRA -- AG2R-Prevoyance (11th in 2005 Tour, 12th in 2004 Tour, 8th in 2003 Tour)
7. Paolo Savoldelli, ITA -- Discovery Channel (Two-time Giro champ)
8. Carlos Sastre, ITA -- CSC (2nd in 2005 Vuelta, 21st in 2005 Tour, 6th in 2004 Vuelta, 8th in 2004 Tour, 10th in 2002 Tour)
9. George Hincapie, USA -- Discovery Channel (14th in 2005 Tour)

Here's a link to the official Tour site GC standings.

http://www.letour.fr/2006/TDF/LIVE/us/700/classement/ITG.html

 

OLN must be on delay. Just now saw the Julich crash.

On a time trial, no less .... Sucks for him.

 

Wow. Landis stepped up nicely but Zabriskie was a big disappointment. This was supposed to be his day to make a statement. Looks like the statement wasn't a good one.

Levi choked, indeed. But he's a decent climber and might, just might, be able to make up some ground over the next two weeks.

The top 50 riders were within a minute or so of each other before the time trial. Now, we have one guy with a semi-comfortable lead. But he'll lose that in the mountains next week and quickly be out of contention.

I'll have to agree with schmoe, Landis jumped to the top of the favorites list.

 

Dropping by to show a little love for my boy (and neighbor) Floyd!

Go mennonite, go!

 

Modaho, he could make up a few minutes on some weak climbers, but if he's five minutes slower than Floyd on flat ground, he'll probably be 10 minutes slower than him when the roads go uphill.

Gerolsteiner is even giving up on him, and they will surely ride for Marcus Fothen or Sebastian Lang (German riders on a German-sponsored team), while possibly trying to get a stage win for breakaway specialist Georg Totschnig, too.


From Andrew Hood's article on ESPN.com.

Levi Leipheimer, 32, took the worse lumps, finishing 96th at 6:06 off the pace that all but buries his chances of overall victory. The Montana native finished sixth in last year's Tour and won the Dauphiné Libéré race in June to bolster his candidacy for the Tour's final podium, but faired so poorly he was even passed by his "two-minute" man, who started behind him in the one-at-a-time format.

"This is my worse time trial ever. I don't understand why," said Leipheimer. "I don't have an explanation, but I didn't feel well on the bike."

The mood was grim at Leipheimer's Gerolsteiner team, where sport director Hans-Michael Holzcer said Leipheimer's chances for the podium are lost.

"We can forget about the top-three now with Levi," Holzcer said. "Levi wasn't sick and he didn't have any bike problems. We have no explanation."

 

It has just not been a good run lately for Montana sports figures . . . first the MSU boys, then Benny the Bull (formerly known as Monte from UM) and now Levi. . . :'( :'( :'( :'( :'(

 

Anyone who didn't have Floyd as the top contender overall didn't see him stomp people early in the season in every time trial he raced.
Zabriskie isn't a climber and George was never going to TT well enough for his new-found climbing skills to matter. Right now, I've got to go with Landis and Kloden. Gotta remember how Kloden, Ullrich and Vino dusted everyone at the Sydney road race in 2000. The guy's good, he's just been in Ullrich's shadow too long.

 

LAT wades into the Lance Armstrong accusations with a major investigation...

http://www.latimes.com/sports/cycling/la-sp-armstrong9jul09,0,5275381.story?coll=la-home-headlines

 

and FLOYD IS IN YELLOW!

What a great ride today by the local hero!

 

Landis did great, as did Levi. Very, very entertaining race today.

Life without Lance not going so well for the Discovery boys.

 

Well, my earlier post-Time Trial picks are holding up pretty well, with the exception of Karpets and Hincapie dropping off the pace quite a bit. Levi had a good ride today and really gave it a go at the end, but the Floyd, Menchov and Evans would have to ride off the side of an Alp for him to have a real change.

Here's a link to the update standings:

http://www.letour.fr/2006/TDF/LIVE/us/1100/classement/ITG.html

And here is my new list of TdF GC faves:
1. Floyd Landis, USA -- Messed-up hip or not, he looks awesome right now.
2. Denis Menchov, RUS -- I like Evans better as an individual, but Rabobank has better support riders: edge to Menchov.
3. Cadel Evans, AUS -- Faded slightly at the end today, but still a safe bet for a podium finish in Paris.
4. Carlos Sastre, ESP -- Thought he'd make a push today to win in his home country (sorry, I had him listed as an Italian in my last post), but he just didn't have the legs to keep up on the final climb.
5. Andreas Kloden, GER -- T-Mobile looked awesome early but leader Kloden couldn't hang on the last big push.
6. Christophe Moreau, FRA -- Should hang in there in the mountains, but traditionally not as good of a time trialist as some of these others and could lose ground on the second-to-last day.

 

Wow, what a day in the Tour. Floyd had an epic bonk like Lance did six years ago, except that Lance was able to limit the damage and still go on and win.

Phonak's overall weakness proved to be Floyd's downfall. Well, that and their idiotic decision to let Pereiro get away on a 30-minute advantage in a breakaway over the weekend and take the yellow jersey.

Poor Levi, if he'd only had even a mediocre time trial two weeks ago instead of a terrible one, he'd be right in the mix.

Updated standings:

http://www.letour.fr/2006/TDF/LIVE/us/1600/classement/ITG.html

And here is my new list of TdF GC faves:
1. Andreas Kloden, GER -- Doesn't seem to have the ability to ride away from anybody in the mountains, but should take back some time from Pereiro and Sastre in the time trial.
2. Cadel Evans, AUS -- Just keeps hanging around, and his time trialing ability is far superior to Pereiro and Sastre.
3. Carlos Sastre, ESP -- Best climber of the remaining contenders, he could easily make up the 1:50 gap on Pereiro tomorrow; but his time trialing skills aren't.
4. Oscar Pereiro, ESP -- Poor time trialing skills don't bode well for holding on to the maillot jaune.
5. Denis Menchov, RUS --Hasn't shown a killer instinct at all, but is a great time trialist.
6. Michael Rogers, AUS -- Excellent time trialist could take a few minutes out of guys like Dessel and Pereiro.
7. Cyril Dessel, FRA -- Has made France proud, but will drop in the time trial; his gas tank has to be close to empty from his efforts to hang in there up to this point.
8. Levi Leipheimer, USA -- Should climb up the rankings another spot or two from his current ninth.
9. Christophe Moreau, FRA -- Has looked awful at time, but keeps digging deep to finish not far behind the leaders.
10. Floyd Landis, USA -- Turned out to be a pretender after all. Shot his wad in the spring stage races apparently.