Running 2011 Baseball Thread, Vol. I: Dedicated to spnited

[RickStain]

In order for his close and late numbers to be better, but his overall close numbers to be normal, he must have been comparably worse in close in and early situations.

I'm totally winging this one, so it may turn out to be false, but I'd posit that most starting pitchers will have close and late numbers that look better than their regular numbers. You don't get to pitch in close and late situations if you aren't already on your game that day. The sample suffers from a selection bias toward when a pitcher is at his best.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Those late & close numbers are quite a bit lower than other situations, so I don't see how you have proven false the idea that he wasn't better in close games.

Tie game: 249/319/373
1-run game: 244/313/371
2-run game: 247/315/375
3-run game: 247/314/377
4-run game: 247/314/379
>4-run game: 249/310/389

Interesting numbers and you are correct that the impact might be slight. The late & close numbers are also interesting and address the topic.

 

[RickStain]

But we've also kind of trended into a different area. "Jack Morris was good in close and late situations" is a lot different than "Jack Morris pitched to the score, such that he gave up extra runs in blowouts and fewer runs in close games, and that's why his win total was higher than you'd expect given his ERA."

 

[Herbert Anchovy]

I'd thought a lot of Sabathia's mystique was derived from his Brewers playoff run and inflated win total with the Yankees, but all his peripheral numbers are better since he started pitching in the AL East.

 

[LongTimeListener]

But we've also kind of trended into a different area. "Jack Morris was good in close and late situations" is a lot different than "Jack Morris pitched to the score, such that he gave up extra runs in blowouts and fewer runs in close games, and that's why his win total was higher than you'd expect given his ERA."

Yeah ... there is also the matter that the total PAs with game within 4 runs are 14604, and the total PAs with 4+ run lead are 1514, so there is nearly 10 times more data on one side as the other. Whether that's significant or whether 1514 is considered enough to equate the measurements, I don't know.

Of further note, when game was within four runs, Morris allowed a home run every 42.2 PAs, and with a 4+ run lead he allowed a HR every 35.2 PAs. That, combined with his lower walk rate, suggests more of a "here it is, hit it" mentality.

 

[Herbert Anchovy]

Fox has been talking to Edwin Jackson in-game for literally the last 10 minutes, for whatever forktarded reason.

 

[Steak Snabler]

Fox has been talking to Edwin Jackson in-game for literally the last 10 minutes, for whatever forktarded reason.

Because they can.

 

[UPChip]

Ozzie's going apeshirt tonight!

(White Sox blow 8-1 lead and lose 9-8 to Tigers on a Cabrera walk-off)

 

[NickMordo]

MIGUEL, my bell !!! Biggest comeback in Comerica Park history. That may put the dirt on the White Sox grave.

 

[Dick Whitman]

I forking hate this White Sox team more than I have ever hated a White Sox team.

Now there is word that Ken Williams and hitting coach Greg Walker had a "heated confrontation."

What a circus.

 

[Moderator1]

Nats rookie pitcher Tom Milone hit the first pitch he saw tonight for a three-run home run. He also didn't make it through the fifth. An HR but no W for Tom M. in his debut.

Strasburg returns Tuesday. All is well. All is well.

 

[LongTimeListener]

Opposing hitters off of Jack Morris, career

Tie game: 249/319/373
1-run game: 244/313/371
2-run game: 247/315/375
3-run game: 247/314/377
4-run game: 247/314/379
>4-run game: 249/310/389

Any questions?

Because I had nothing else to think about while running ... returning to this Jack Morris tangent (and the Buster Olney tweet YF posted about pitching differently when you're winning), the aggregate numbers say what they say. But in Morris' case -- and possibly in others -- it isn't just people's lying eyes that are telling them something. His highest-profile seasons were '84 and '92, when the Tigers and Jays won the Series and he was a Cy Young candidate.

His splits in those years:

1984
Margin 0-4 runs .235/.304/.344
Margin +4 runs .333/.357/.500

1992
Margin 0-4 runs .236/.303/.345
Margin +4 runs .318/.383/.458

Are those flukes related solely to that's the way the ball bounces? Maybe. Obviously there are other years where he was better with a +4 margin to balance those out. But at the times when the greatest number of people were paying attention to what he was doing, what they were seeing was when he had a big lead he seemed to be throwing batting practice, and in close games he hunkered down. (The other time he was under the microscope most would have been '91, and the numbers were pretty even, an argument for randomness.)

That '92 season kind of encapsulates the debate that Olney was engaged in: Morris was 21-6 with a 4.05 ERA and finished fifth in CY voting ahead of pitchers with much much better ERAs. But considering how lax he was with a big lead, I would argue that the 21-6 was a better indicator of his season than the 4.05 was. There was one game he pitched into the seventh with a 15-4 lead; ended up allowing 7 ER in 6.2 IP. Another time he had a 12-3 lead and ended up allowing 6 ER in 5 IP. But he also had three complete-game wins in games decided by one or two runs.