cisforkoke
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I've said this many times, but the only bad seed in the tournament is 69 or lower. The Shockers are in. They'll have their chances.
It may seem that way, but the numbers don't bear it out.If you're one of the top eight teams in the country and have aspirations on a national title, you should not lose your first-round game no matter who it's against. If you do, you have no one to blame but yourself.
Plus, in terms of a second-round game the 2-seed usually gets a slightly better draw. The 8-9 game is typically a couple of decent major conference teams that, even if they're flawed or have struggled, should be capable of beating anyone in the country on a given night. The 7-10 game typically has at least one mid-major.
It may seem that way, but the numbers don't bear it out.
No. 1 vs. No. 8: 52–12 (.813)
No. 1 vs. No. 9: 59–5 (.922)
Total: 111–17 (.867)
No. 2 vs. No. 7: 54–21 (.720)
No. 2 vs. No. 10: 27–18 (.600) - Wow.
Totsl: 81–39 (.675)
This is a very illuminating discussion, but it misses a larger truth. There are never more than 10 teams with a realistic Final Four chance anyway in any given year (yes, there are upsets like George Mason, but they are rare enough for us to know them by heart. Wichita State looks like a good team to me, but wherever they're seeded, if they get to the Sweet Sixteen they've had one heck of a tournament, or at least, their fans won't be all that bummed if they get no further.
Look at how many of those are traditional big conference powers which must have had substandard regular seasons. I'll buy VCU and Butler, but don't try to sell me that Kentucky, UConn and Michigan State aren't among the classic Final Four suspects.e
This is laughable horseshirt. Have you not watched the tourney at all in the last decade?
Let's analyze your statement, if fewer than 10 teams have realistic final four hopes, then it should be an extraordinarily rare occurrence that a team seeded lower than a 1, 2 or possibly 3 reaches the final four. Well, let's see how many of those "no hope" below-3 seeds have done that in recent years:
2016: 10 seed Syracuse
2015: 7 seed Michigan State
2014: 8 seed Kentucky and 7 seed UConn
2013: 9 seed Wichita State
2012: 4 seed Louisville
2011: 11 seed VCU and 5 seed Butler
2010: 5 seed Butler and 5 seed Michigan State
Gee, looks to me like this extraordinarily rare thing has lately been happening Every. Single. Year. And often twice in the same year. Sure suggests a shirtload more than 10 teams have a shot to me.