Running Baseball VII (or second half I, if you like)

I didn't realize the Yanks were that close. I'm not saying they'll win, but they're definitely not dead. They're one modest run --- winning 8 of 10 or something like that -- from being right in the middle of the race.

 

In past years, that would've crippled the Brewers completely. Now that they have Gallardo, Villanueva and even Manny Parra to plug in Sheets' spot, the injury won't prove as costly. Don't get me wrong, I would love to have Sheets in there instead of the others ... but the Cubs still could be looking up at the Brewers when Sheets returns.

They just need to have Capuano remove his head from his ass and start pitching.

 

They're just as likely, though, to hit a dead spot and drop 6 or 7 of 10 as they are to win 8 of 10, IMO. You really think that rotation and bullpen are going to hold up well enough to make the kind of run they need to make?

No chance. No chance in hell.

 

mustard, I would agree with you if the Yankees' rotation wasn't doing what it's currently doing ... and, more importantly, the Red Sox rotation wasn't collapsing. This is not going to end well, I fear.

 

Someone previously mentioned the Yanks' cushy upcoming schedule. Well, if they hang in the race until mid-August, they get hit with:

4 (Aug 16-19) vs Detroit
3 (Aug 20-22) at LA Angels
4 (Aug 24-27) at Detroit
3 (Aug 28-30) vs. Boston

That's got 5-9 written all over it.

 

Yanks' upcoming starting pitchers (admittedly courtesy ESPN)

Clemens (2-4)
Wang (10-4)
Mussina (4-6)
DeSalvo (1-3) G1 of DH
Igawa (2-2) G2 of DH
Pettitte (5-6)

Clemens is good for about one great start every three or four outings
Wang is very good
Mussina is a 6-inning guy now, at best
DeSalvo and Igawa? They're running those guys out there?
Pettitte, like Mussina and Clemens, will give you one great start for every three decent/bad ones.

They don't have the starting pitching to make the run they need to make. And their bullpen is damn near toast ... and we haven't even hit August yet.

And do you really think they're going to go the rest of the way without another injury to one of their old-ass starters?

 

Casty: Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Boston (56-37, .602) goes .500 the rest of the way. That's a final record of 90-72 (they've got an odd number of games, so we'll give them a 34-35 finish).

To match that record, the Yankees (47-44) will need to run off a 43-28 (.606) finish.

And FWIW, no team in the AL currently has a .606 winning percentage. Detroit is closest, at .604. So the Yankees will need to run off a 71-game stretch better than any AL team has played all year (admittedly, through 90+ games).

 

Uber prospect Phil Hughes -- who left with a no-hitter in the seventh with a hamstring injury in his second career start -- will probably be back within two weeks. When that happens, you can throw DeSalvo and/or Igawa out of the rotation.

 

That's the same guy who went 4.1 in his other start right? Look, I don't care how great a prospect he is, if HE'S the guy that's going to save the Yankees season ... that says a lot about the state of the Yankees.

A guy with two career starts isn't going to push that team into the playoffs. And Igawa and/or Whoever will be right back in the rotation when Mussina and/or Pettitte break down. I'm also not sure who they'll go to when Proctor and/or Farnsworth's arms fall off.

 

I look at it this way -- there's nine full weeks left in the season. If the Yanks make up one game per week, they win the division by a game or win the WC by two games. I don't think that's totally unreasonable to do.

 

Hell, why not just make up 2 a week if it's that easy? Sure, they've shown no ability whatsoever this year of being anything approaching that consistent. But why not? I'm sure that every year a .500 team rattles off that kind of stretch.

Fact is, if the Yankees wore anything other than pinstripes and played anywhere other than Yankee Stadium, they'd be ignored. Because they're damn near irrelevant right now as far as the playoff chase is concerned. And there's NOTHING to suggest they're going to go on any kind of tear.

They've won a few in a row after an extended break? Congratulations. Let me know how those old guys look in the dog days.

I'm still offering THE BET, by the way. Just in case there's anybody who actually BELIEVES that team is making the playoffs.

 

Not saying he's going to save the season. But he can help by getting DeSalvo and/or Igawa out of the rotation. He might not be great when he returns. Just the same, he could pull a Liriano (pre injury) and help the Yankees to the playoffs.