Ryan Braun - NL MVP

[MrHavercamp]

WAR is meant to be an imprecise but useful tool for comparing players who wouldn't normally be comparable.

You say there are already so many numbers to judge a hitter on, but not all hitters play the same position. How do you compare a .290 hitting SS with a lot of walks, no power, and great defense to a .320 hitting slugging corner outfielder with few walks and poor defense? How do you compare a No. 4 pitcher and a platoon third baseman? WAR isn't the word of god, but it's a useful catchall and it lets you translate a player's value into the most important stat in the game (just like languages, no translation is perfect, but again it gets the job done).

Or, for this thread, how do you compare the value of two guys who have nearly identical offensive stats when one of them was a slightly better defender at a much more premium defensive position, more durable, and played in a tougher hitting environment? Just listing their offensive counting numbers isn't going to tell you much.

The writers have always favored winning teams, sure, but there's also been an unwritten rule that if the difference is big enough, they'll overlook that preference. They are getting ripped because the vote showed that they still don't understand how to look past the raw offensive totals and get a true understanding of how valuable it is to play an up-the-middle position or to hit in a pitcher's park.

Thanks, Rick. That's a reasonable explanation, and I follow what you're saying. But I also wonder how much sense it makes to compare a slick-fielding, singles-hitting shortstop to a power-hitting left-fielder with limited defensive range. They both bring different skill sets in terms of what they do to help a team win, and one's never going to be compared to another when a general manager is assembling a team or when a manager is filling out a lineup card. And both can be appreciated for what they do well (or ripped when they do not play well.) I realize you're talking in terms of maybe separating them when it comes to things to an MVP vote, but ultimately there's going to be some judgment used in those cases anyway.

As for Kemp and Braun, I will add this much. Kemp had 60 more plate appearances than Braun, which accounts for some of the numbers differences in the traditional categories. Braun, however, still had one more extra-base hit (77-76). I understand the ballpark differences, but OPS-plus accounts for that, right? Kemp led 171-166. I'm not sure if that's considered a big difference or not. It doesn't seem like a wide gap to me, but correct me if I'm wrong.

As for the defense, I agree that should be part of judging a player. It gets overlooked at times. Kemp has real ability out there. But the corner spots can be trickier to play than center. And if I'm reading the numbers right, Kemp had a dWAR of 1.0 while Braun had a 0.6. Again, is that a huge gap? (I'm asking because I'm not sure.)

Finally, Braun's WAR was 7.7, and the Brewers won the NL Central by six games. Can those be equated in any way to say that they would not have made the playoffs of Braun were replaced by an average player?

I guess my greater point was similar to that of BB Bobcat. I don't see enough of a gap for anybody to pound on the BBWAA for this choice.

 

[Dick Whitman]

WAR is meant to be an imprecise but useful tool for comparing players who wouldn't normally be comparable.

You say there are already so many numbers to judge a hitter on, but not all hitters play the same position. How do you compare a .290 hitting SS with a lot of walks, no power, and great defense to a .320 hitting slugging corner outfielder with few walks and poor defense? How do you compare a No. 4 pitcher and a platoon third baseman? WAR isn't the word of god, but it's a useful catchall and it lets you translate a player's value into the most important stat in the game (just like languages, no translation is perfect, but again it gets the job done).

Or, for this thread, how do you compare the value of two guys who have nearly identical offensive stats when one of them was a slightly better defender at a much more premium defensive position, more durable, and played in a tougher hitting environment? Just listing their offensive counting numbers isn't going to tell you much.

The writers have always favored winning teams, sure, but there's also been an unwritten rule that if the difference is big enough, they'll overlook that preference. They are getting ripped because the vote showed that they still don't understand how to look past the raw offensive totals and get a true understanding of how valuable it is to play an up-the-middle position or to hit in a pitcher's park.

Thanks, Rick. That's a reasonable explanation, and I follow what you're saying. But I also wonder how much sense it makes to compare a slick-fielding, singles-hitting shortstop to a power-hitting left-fielder with limited defensive range. They both bring different skill sets in terms of what they do to help a team win, and one's never going to be compared to another when a general manager is assembling a team or when a manager is filling out a lineup card.

Are you kidding? Yes they are. You have $5 million to spend. There is a shortstop and a right fielder available. Who brings you more value for your money?

 

[Versatile]

WAR is meant to be an imprecise but useful tool for comparing players who wouldn't normally be comparable.

You say there are already so many numbers to judge a hitter on, but not all hitters play the same position. How do you compare a .290 hitting SS with a lot of walks, no power, and great defense to a .320 hitting slugging corner outfielder with few walks and poor defense? How do you compare a No. 4 pitcher and a platoon third baseman? WAR isn't the word of god, but it's a useful catchall and it lets you translate a player's value into the most important stat in the game (just like languages, no translation is perfect, but again it gets the job done).

Or, for this thread, how do you compare the value of two guys who have nearly identical offensive stats when one of them was a slightly better defender at a much more premium defensive position, more durable, and played in a tougher hitting environment? Just listing their offensive counting numbers isn't going to tell you much.

The writers have always favored winning teams, sure, but there's also been an unwritten rule that if the difference is big enough, they'll overlook that preference. They are getting ripped because the vote showed that they still don't understand how to look past the raw offensive totals and get a true understanding of how valuable it is to play an up-the-middle position or to hit in a pitcher's park.

Rick, WAR actually does adjust for position. That's one of its key purposes. It takes the average production at a player's position and compares that player with that average.

 

[RickStain]

WAR is meant to be an imprecise but useful tool for comparing players who wouldn't normally be comparable.

You say there are already so many numbers to judge a hitter on, but not all hitters play the same position. How do you compare a .290 hitting SS with a lot of walks, no power, and great defense to a .320 hitting slugging corner outfielder with few walks and poor defense? How do you compare a No. 4 pitcher and a platoon third baseman? WAR isn't the word of god, but it's a useful catchall and it lets you translate a player's value into the most important stat in the game (just like languages, no translation is perfect, but again it gets the job done).

Or, for this thread, how do you compare the value of two guys who have nearly identical offensive stats when one of them was a slightly better defender at a much more premium defensive position, more durable, and played in a tougher hitting environment? Just listing their offensive counting numbers isn't going to tell you much.

The writers have always favored winning teams, sure, but there's also been an unwritten rule that if the difference is big enough, they'll overlook that preference. They are getting ripped because the vote showed that they still don't understand how to look past the raw offensive totals and get a true understanding of how valuable it is to play an up-the-middle position or to hit in a pitcher's park.

Rick, WAR actually does adjust for position. That's one of its key purposes. It takes the average production at a player's position and compares that player with that average.

Yes, that's what I'm saying. WAR, by adjusting for position and trying to place some sort of defensive contributions, it's making players in different positions more comparable. A 170 OPS+ CF and a 170 OPS+ RF bring different offensive value, but a 5-WAR player is a 5-WAR player whether it's a LF, SS or pitcher.

I know you know this, but in case anyone's confused, there's a difference between defensive adjustment and defensive value.

Defensive value is how much a player contributes with his glove compared to other players who play the same position.

Defensive position adjustment has to do with offense. If I get 30 HRs from a LFer, that's great. If I get 30 HRs from a SS, that's better, because I'm getting way more out of that position than the other teams in my league.

The reason Ryan Braun can't be a CFer or a SS or whatever is because his negative defensive value would be so bad that it cancels out the position adjustment boost to his offensive value. Kemp, while not a great CFer (depending on the metric), is still good enough that the boost isn't cancelled out.