The new and improved, fight-free Romney vs. Obama thread!

I don't think the unemployment rolls have anything to do with how they calculate unemployment.

 

Partially.

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_htgm.htm

 

As best as I can tell, they're minor inputs if at all ...

 

Unless you're taking folks (statistically) out of the labor force, or moving them into the category of "marginally attached," as they come off UI. Which seems to be the standard accusation at the federal level:

www.newsmax.com/Headline/white-house-manipulates-unemployment/2012/02/06/id/428619

 

"Landline" Rasmussen remains only poll which has Romney ahead, at present.
Even latest GOPllup emission has POTUS in front.

 

Been meaning to look this up and post it. Current futures markets (intrade, Iowa Electronic Markets) have the President's chances of winning at somewhere in the mid to high 50s. Per the little bit of research I did, if it were an NFL line the President would be a 1- to a 1.5-point favorite.

 

Romney will have a brief window in the fall to pick up momentum when people start paying attention. If he doesn't find some traction then, he'll lose wire to wire.

 

His only chance will be to take the lead during the convention (kind of expected) and then hold on to it better than McCain did four years ago. Certainly not an easy thing to do, but not impossible.

I think fivethirtyeight has his chances of winning somewhere between 33-35 percent. It's not over, but I think most people think something significant has to happen between now and November for Romney to have a chance.

 

Which could happen. I'm not as convinced this is over as many others are.

 

Where it gets interesting is if he takes the lead in Florida and Ohio. I think Obama has slight leads in both states and while I think Romney has a good chance to win Florida, I think Ohio will be tough. If he gets both states (big if) then it would be interesting to see this thing come down to Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado...

I remain stunned that it is as close as it is. Romney is doing basically about 2-3 points better than McCain was at this point four years ago.

 

The president is campaigning in OH and PA while Romney is taking vaca in NH. This is a reversal of traditional roles. Normally it is the challenger out beating the bushes with a confident President hiding in the Rose Garden.

This shows that Obama's polls have him scared. Why else be spending time and resources in OH and PA? Two states that he won easily in 2008 are now in play. He's afraid. The economy isn't going to get any better. In fact it will probably be revised down.

Romney will get a bounce both from his pick of VP (will probably help him pick up one battleground state) and from his Convention. Obama is probably going to lose points from his convention because it will be the protests and the people staying away from him that will make the news.

The people whistling past the graveyard are funny.

Romney 2012

 

BTW - in May Romney out-raised Obama by $17 million. In June Romney raised $36 million more than Obama.

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