President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

I think Biden takes Wisc/Mich/Pa, Az, and with some luck Ga - but he can do without it.

 

This year, order of counting is *everything*. Because Biden heavily encouraged his voters to vote early due to the virus, and Trump encouraged them to count on election day, we saw a huge split based on whether they counted election day first or early vote first, and every state has different rules. States like Ohio and North Carolina that pre-count their early votes had a "blue mirage" where Biden jumped out to huge leads that disappeared.

Michigan and Wisconsin are Red Mirage states. They count election-day ballots first. When you look at where the remaining votes are, and consider that they are mostly early votes, there's *tons* of Biden margin coming. More than enough to make up for the current margin in both states. I'd be surprised if he won either state by less than 5, similar to how Biden led Ohio most of the way and is now losing it by 7.

Example: Wayne County in Michigan is currently at less than half of its 2016 total and netting Biden +40k votes. It was good for almost 300k for Clinton. Those votes are coming.

NE-02 is very close to callable. I haven't checked in the last few minutes, maybe they have called it.

That just leaves Arizona. Arizona does still have day-of votes to count, but they also have late-arriving absentee to count, which should blunt the comeback considerably. And Biden is already up by more votes than he hoped to be on early voting.

That's your 270. I'm 99.9% sure on Wisconsin, maybe only 98.5% sure on Michigan. But I'm pretty darn sure.

 

Poles!

 

Poles!

 

Yah I'm sure the "Black Bloc" is out to get reporters.

 

AP calling Joni Ernst in Iowa. GOP may keep the Senate.

 

Now that one was his.

 

Great stuff. Thx for the analysis @RickStain .

 

Yep. With Arizona, Biden's pretty much a lock. Republicans know it.

Can't have Trump declaring victory with Arizona going to Biden.

 

Looks like it. God help us.

 

Well ... he is probably an expert on people on poles.