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President Trump: The NEW one and only politics thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Moderator1, Nov 12, 2016.

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  1. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    I think Biden takes Wisc/Mich/Pa, Az, and with some luck Ga - but he can do without it.
     
    TowelWaver likes this.
  2. RickStain

    RickStain Well-Known Member

    This year, order of counting is *everything*. Because Biden heavily encouraged his voters to vote early due to the virus, and Trump encouraged them to count on election day, we saw a huge split based on whether they counted election day first or early vote first, and every state has different rules. States like Ohio and North Carolina that pre-count their early votes had a "blue mirage" where Biden jumped out to huge leads that disappeared.

    Michigan and Wisconsin are Red Mirage states. They count election-day ballots first. When you look at where the remaining votes are, and consider that they are mostly early votes, there's *tons* of Biden margin coming. More than enough to make up for the current margin in both states. I'd be surprised if he won either state by less than 5, similar to how Biden led Ohio most of the way and is now losing it by 7.

    Example: Wayne County in Michigan is currently at less than half of its 2016 total and netting Biden +40k votes. It was good for almost 300k for Clinton. Those votes are coming.

    NE-02 is very close to callable. I haven't checked in the last few minutes, maybe they have called it.

    That just leaves Arizona. Arizona does still have day-of votes to count, but they also have late-arriving absentee to count, which should blunt the comeback considerably. And Biden is already up by more votes than he hoped to be on early voting.

    That's your 270. I'm 99.9% sure on Wisconsin, maybe only 98.5% sure on Michigan. But I'm pretty darn sure.
     
  3. Inky_Wretch

    Inky_Wretch Well-Known Member

    Poles!

     
    bigpern23 likes this.
  4. Elliotte Friedman

    Elliotte Friedman Moderator Staff Member

    Nate Cohen’s been very solid.

    Georgia:


    Arizona:
     
  5. SFIND

    SFIND Well-Known Member

  6. Starman

    Starman Well-Known Member

    Yah I'm sure the "Black Bloc" is out to get reporters.
     
  7. HanSenSE

    HanSenSE Well-Known Member

    AP calling Joni Ernst in Iowa. GOP may keep the Senate.
     
  8. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    Now that one was his.
     
    HanSenSE and Jerry-atric like this.
  9. TowelWaver

    TowelWaver Well-Known Member

    Great stuff. Thx for the analysis @RickStain .
     
    Jerry-atric and Neutral Corner like this.
  10. JayFarrar

    JayFarrar Well-Known Member

    Yep. With Arizona, Biden's pretty much a lock. Republicans know it.

    Can't have Trump declaring victory with Arizona going to Biden.
     
  11. Neutral Corner

    Neutral Corner Well-Known Member

    Looks like it. God help us.
     
    TowelWaver likes this.
  12. Sam Mills 51

    Sam Mills 51 Well-Known Member

    Well ... he is probably an expert on people on poles.
     
    TowelWaver and HanSenSE like this.
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