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President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Discussion in 'Sports and News' started by Moderator1, Jan 20, 2021.

  1. Della9250

    Della9250 Well-Known Member

    Surprised it took this long

     
  2. PCLoadLetter

    PCLoadLetter Well-Known Member

    NPR/PBS News/Marist poll done yesterday.


    Voters who say they’re definitely voting in November:

    Harris – 47%
    Trump – 47%
    Undecided – 6%

    Harris – 45%
    Trump – 43%
    Kennedy – 7%
    West – 1%
    Stein – 0%
    Oliver - 0%
    Undecided – 3%

    Margin of error +/- 3.5

    But tell me again how Harris has no shot.
     
    TowelWaver likes this.
  3. TigerVols

    TigerVols Well-Known Member

    Time for the MSM to dust off their "Tom Bradley Effect" stories from 2008.
     
  4. Twirling Time

    Twirling Time Well-Known Member

    It's within the margin of error of course, but the numbers demonstrate that RFK Jr. is hurting Stinky more than he's hurting Harris nationally.

    The battleground polls, though, are much more important.
     
    SFIND and maumann like this.
  5. MileHigh

    MileHigh Moderator Staff Member

    Presidential predictor Allan Lichtman tells Democrats after Biden drops out: 'Get smart and unite'

    "With Biden dropping out, they [Democrats] lose one more key: the incumbency key," Lichtman said. "But they can still preserve another key: the contest key if, finally, the Democrats get smart and unite behind Kamala Harris as the consensus nominee, they keep that key in line."

    <snip>

    "There are four shaky keys that I haven't decided and I haven't made a final prediction yet. They are third party, social unrest and foreign/military failure and success. Provided Harris becomes the consensus nominee, three of those four keys would have to fall to predict the Democrat's defeat," Lichtman said. "If she doesn't become the consensus nominee, only two would have to fall."
     
    tea and ease likes this.
  6. HappyCurmudgeon

    HappyCurmudgeon Well-Known Member

    It's short time, but I'm curious if the Harris ticket will try to expand the battleground. It's currently Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina and possibly Georgia. Can they go hard and get the district in Omaha, Nebraska? Is it worth the time to go into large cities in Texas (especially Houston) where they have gotten fucked over continuous by the governing party and got neglected when Hurricane Beryl struck? Or red states like Kansas where abortion has been on the ballot and the people rejected the state-imposed bans

    Would they even go into the deep south like Mississippi, which has a large minority population and just do so good stump speeches that touch on the shit that people in Jackson, Mississippi have had to go to and how the system in that state has done the most to keep wages down and public education shitty and water dirty.

    Obviously they can't go everywhere and winning a state in the deep south or tornado alley is very slim. But you can set up things better for future local and state elections by just energizing the underclass.
     
    maumann likes this.
  7. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    You do know this guy is not exactly considered legit. There's no provable political science in his "keys." Saying a political party needs to be united in an election is something any of us could say. Same with the rest of the "keys." Lichtman's real "key" is self-promotion.
     
  8. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

    Andy Ogles | the George Santos of Tennessee
     
  9. BTExpress

    BTExpress Well-Known Member

    Because of EV math, it currently takes a +3% national edge for a Democrat nominee to feel optimistic. Because California is going to account for 2.5% of that.

    +1%-2% is basically coin flip territory, and an even race nationally is a guaranteed Trump victory.
     
  10. Michael_ Gee

    Michael_ Gee Well-Known Member

    What the latest polls show is that Harris seems to have restored the race to the rough tossup it was before the debate. She's stopped the Democratic bleeding. As the lesser-known candidate she has room to grow -- or shrink.
     
    qtlaw and franticscribe like this.
  11. garrow

    garrow Well-Known Member

    The older he gets, the bigger the letters on his hat become.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. UNCGrad

    UNCGrad Well-Known Member

    Again, polls are polls. But it's also been ONE DAY since the full rollout of Harris in Delaware yesterday and TWO DAYS since Biden's announcement. Good or bad - and I would agree any positive movement is good for Dems and Harris - but even pollsters will tell you it takes a few days for more legitimate polling. Let's see where we are in a week.
     
    SFIND and sgreenwell like this.
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