President Biden: The NEW one and only politics thread

Surprised it took this long

 

NPR/PBS News/Marist poll done yesterday.


Voters who say they’re definitely voting in November:

Harris – 47%
Trump – 47%
Undecided – 6%

Harris – 45%
Trump – 43%
Kennedy – 7%
West – 1%
Stein – 0%
Oliver - 0%
Undecided – 3%

Margin of error +/- 3.5

But tell me again how Harris has no shot.

 

Time for the MSM to dust off their "Tom Bradley Effect" stories from 2008.

 

It's within the margin of error of course, but the numbers demonstrate that RFK Jr. is hurting Stinky more than he's hurting Harris nationally.

The battleground polls, though, are much more important.

 

It's short time, but I'm curious if the Harris ticket will try to expand the battleground. It's currently Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Virginia, North Carolina and possibly Georgia. Can they go hard and get the district in Omaha, Nebraska? Is it worth the time to go into large cities in Texas (especially Houston) where they have gotten fucked over continuous by the governing party and got neglected when Hurricane Beryl struck? Or red states like Kansas where abortion has been on the ballot and the people rejected the state-imposed bans

Would they even go into the deep south like Mississippi, which has a large minority population and just do so good stump speeches that touch on the shit that people in Jackson, Mississippi have had to go to and how the system in that state has done the most to keep wages down and public education shitty and water dirty.

Obviously they can't go everywhere and winning a state in the deep south or tornado alley is very slim. But you can set up things better for future local and state elections by just energizing the underclass.

 

You do know this guy is not exactly considered legit. There's no provable political science in his "keys." Saying a political party needs to be united in an election is something any of us could say. Same with the rest of the "keys." Lichtman's real "key" is self-promotion.

 

Andy Ogles | the George Santos of Tennessee

 

Because of EV math, it currently takes a +3% national edge for a Democrat nominee to feel optimistic. Because California is going to account for 2.5% of that.

+1%-2% is basically coin flip territory, and an even race nationally is a guaranteed Trump victory.

 

What the latest polls show is that Harris seems to have restored the race to the rough tossup it was before the debate. She's stopped the Democratic bleeding. As the lesser-known candidate she has room to grow -- or shrink.

 

The older he gets, the bigger the letters on his hat become.

 

Again, polls are polls. But it's also been ONE DAY since the full rollout of Harris in Delaware yesterday and TWO DAYS since Biden's announcement. Good or bad - and I would agree any positive movement is good for Dems and Harris - but even pollsters will tell you it takes a few days for more legitimate polling. Let's see where we are in a week.