Gambling Thread

What a disaster this day has been. My only win was a miracle backdoor cover by Missouri, when they scored a run-it-up touchdown with about 20 seconds left.
The only other game I had on a ticket that's even won so far was Arkansas +8.5 at Oklahoma State. I thought Michigan-Texas and Mississippi State-Arizona State would be close games and I was way, way off on both. Hopefully the NFL can salvage things tomorroe.

 

A couple of years ago, Mississippi State played at Arizona and I bet the Over. It was 57.5, IIRC. Mississippi State missed two PATs early in the game and the total came in at 56, and I lost.
Last night, Mississippi State played at Arizona State and I bet MSU +6.5. Mississippi State was down 30-3, made a big comeback in the second half to get to within 30-23, and then missed the PAT. Final score, 30-23.
My lesson here is do NOT bet on Mississippi State when they play a road game in Arizona, or else the kickers shall fuck ye.

 

Circa Survivor survives.

SuperContest 3-2. Same old Jets.

 

Capped a fairly successful weekend with a lightly researched SGP win on the MNF game -- anytime TDs from Breece Hall and Deebo and the 49ers over 20.5 at +456. Cashed by the first drive of the third quarter, turned the game off and watched Industry instead. I wish they could all be stress free, lol.

 

A rocking chair winner.

 

Circa Survivor:
Jaguars

SuperContest: 3-2
Vikings +6 vs. 49ers
Patriots +3.5 vs Seahawks
Cardinals Pk at Rams
Giants +1.5 at Commanders
Titans +4 vs. Jets

 

Didn't do well on an early-window parlay last Sunday, but did have a refreshingly easy walk to the Cowboys (ML) and Buccaneers (-3.5) winning for me in the late games to salvage the weekend.
Didn't see a ton of NFL games I liked this week. Might be a good day to cut grass. Did find three early games, though:
• Colts -3.5 at Packers
• 49ers -6 at Vikings
• Chargers -6.5 at Panthers

Mostly betting against bad QBs and teams (Malik Willis, Sam Darnold, Bryce Young/Panthers) who are playing at least competent opponents.

 

I admit… on lots of stinky dogs this week.

 

I like those lines, too. They're not too outrageous. If they were 9 or 10 points they might be stay-aways, but less than a touchdown? I can work with that.

 

I tend to look at 0-1 teams against 1-0 teams in Week 2.

College football for this weekend, I’ll put $11 on every 0-2 ATS team and see how they perform.

College Football Team ATS Trends - All Games

38 teams are 0-2. I’ll stay off Colorado-CSU as they’re both 0-2.

Then next week, I’ll double up on the 0-3 teams.

 

Probably just skipping this weekend since I'll be spending most of it outside at the Solheim Cup. Maybe I'll dabble in some live stuff on the Saturday night college football.