2008-09 Hot Stove Thread

Re: Baseball News Thread

Hindsight is always 20/20.

Jones had one bad year, was only 31, and the contract, while for way too much money, made perfect sense lengthwise. I know you all would have bet against such a guy showing up to camp looking like a player who knows he's playing for his last big contract, right?

Sure, it ended up being a disaster. No one could have predicted he'd show up to camp looking like a fat tub of lard, and stay unmotivated throughout. That's just not normal human behavior. But Jones is too much of a dunce to figure out that was his first, last and only chance to save his career.

The risk was a calculated one. And as you, outofplace, are often so eager to point out, teams like the Dodgers can afford to miss on a risk like that.

Signing Manny for more than two-three years would be foolish. If he begs for four . . . . I'm not sure where the Dodgers find even 30 homers in the free agent market, and I certainly don't think Kemp, Ethier, et.al. are close to being feared sluggers. So maybe you hold you nose and give him the four years, hoping that if things go sour you can unload him to a contender.

The linked article, of course, points out that the Dodgers don't really give longterm contracts, which will probably cost them even a hint of a shot at a Sabathia. They will not be "dumb enough" to sign Manny to a longterm contract.

I hope the Yankees or Mets sign him, for whatever he wants.

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

Piotr, just my opinion on Jones. I didn't like the trends with his numbers or his weight even a year ago. Disaster was probably too strong of a word, since it was only two years and, as just reminded us, they do have the cash to survive a mistake.

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

I'm guessing the answer to that is "the wrong guy."

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

Looking at the Dodgers, they do have some available cash, considering all of the free agents they have (they'll try to sign Furcal, I would think, but the rest are gone). And, they free up even more money after next season when the contracts of Jones and Schmidt are up.

I'd think the most I'd offer Manny is four years.

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

Jones wasn't really "trending" down. Last time he hit only 20-something homers, he came back in a big way.

I'm not a fan of his at all, but his two best power years came just before the decline year of 2007.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/j/jonesan01.shtml

Maybe that was roids; who knows?

Again, a very calculated risk. If he decided to be a lazy fat ass (and he did), they're only on the hook for one more season. I'm no fan of Ned Colletti, but it is true that the only really inflexible contract he's signed a free agent to is wasting five years on Juan Pierre.

Now, six years for Manny? That's a disaster contract. Dude's 36 and his defense didn't have much of a peak to decline from.

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

Jones went down a little bit from his big '05 to '06, then a much bigger drop in '07. I just didn't liked what I observed when I saw him those years and expected the decline to continue. But we can definitely agree that keeping the contract so short reduced the risk.

And we can agree that giving Ramirez six years would be a bad idea.

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

A lot of NAMES, yes.

Names whose best years are behind them. How many of these position players are high-quality players who will provide both immediate help, and help for the long term? Texiera? Maybe Vladimir Guerrero? Stretch the idea of "free agent value" and say Adam Dunn or Pat Burrell?

An uninspiring list.

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

Elliotte F. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> A-Rod/Scott Boras

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

I didn't go through the whole list, but don't the Angels have an option on Guerrero for 2009?

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

Yes.

 

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I think a team should offer Manny a 1 year deal at ridiculous money 30-35 mill let's say. On a 1 year deal he is motivated and the money might be enough to convince Boras to sign for just one year. You completely take any long term risks associated with an aging slugger out of the equation.

 

Re: Baseball News Thread

Sounds good in theory but this isn't a video game. Someone will give him the years and the money, I just hope it's not Minaya.