2011-12 Hot Stove Thread

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Mark Davis was the patron saint of lousy closer signings, Ryan not far behind him. Ryan's worse with 20 years of oversight.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

When someone says "overpay" it usually means they don't understand how the market works. The Phillies wanted to hire the best closer available. They believe Papelbon is that guy (could be right, could be wrong, but we won't find out for several more years) and they hired him. That is the market, not what someone looking at his WAR numbers decides it is. There aren't any Papelbons remaining on the market. The Phillies got the only one available.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

It does boggle the mind a tad that after seeing how the idea that financial risk could be assessed and quantified through mathematical means alone wrecked the entire world economy, people still want to apply that idea to the hiring of baseball players.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

The history of free-agent relievers getting large contracts is abysmal. I know you have to take each player as an individual case, but I have a hard time overlooking that trend.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

In this case, "overpay" means they overvalued the asset.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Philadelphia had 11 extra-base hits in the playoffs and they go out and sign a toy.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I haven't once brought up mathematical analysis in reference to this contract. Defensive much, Phillies fan?

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Law is going about this the wrong way. WAR is a terrible stat for high-leverage relievers. WAR assumes that the runs a pitcher like Papelbon saves are all in an ordinary, average situation. With a pitcher like Papelbon, almost all of his runs prevented are going to come in late-inning, close situations, making them more valuable.

The reason this is a bad contract is the attrition rate on relievers, not his WAR.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Fully agreed, Stain. How do you propose we evaluate closers?

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

No, it'd be better if they got a big hitter who didn't play first base. Like I said, Reyes would've been my first idea were I GM. But the whole "overpay" idea makes my hackles rise. That implies setting a generally accepted value on Papelbon's worth which is by no means generally accepted. They needed a closer, and they went and got one, for apparently not much more than it would've cost to keep the one they had.
The critics of the Howard deal had this much on their side. It was certainly POSSIBLE for the Phils to wait and go for Pujols or Fielder this year. Here, they didn't have many options. Bring back Lidge?
The terms of the Basic Agreement mean a team will always, always pay more on the back end of big free agent signing than said free agent is likely to deliver in the back end years, unless he got to the show at age 17 or so. That's baked into the cake. You're paying for the wins (and revenues generated) in the front end of the deal. Put it this way. If the Marlins sign Pujols, his homers and RBI in 2017 will probably not match his totals in 2012. The numbers in the Marlins' cable deal, however, may be higher. It's an easy line of criticism, but an impractical one.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Evaluate or value?

We evaluate them the same way as other pitchers. But we value them on a multiplier because of the importance of their innings. Depending on how you use your bullpen, I'd apply that logic to at least your top two relievers, and maybe a third to a lesser degree.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I agree with your general principle, but these are two very bad examples of it.

I wholeheartedly agree that a team like the Phillies should be placing an extremely high value on immediate wins, even if it means "overpaying" on the back end of a deal. I also don't like when people try to apply a $/WAR formula linearly, because there's a lot of value in getting a lot of value out of a single lineup or rotation spot. An 8-WAR player is more than twice as valuable as a 4-WAR player.

But while you go big for superstars, you absolutely don't for second-tier stars and players in a high-attrition category. The former applies to Howard (whom the Phillies insanely overrated for his RBI totals) and the latter to Papelbon (whom the Phillies should have known better about, because they've been burned by high-priced relievers as much as anyone).

They could have gotten a lot more immediate wins for their money this offseason than sign a high-priced closer. Reyes, as you mentioned, is the obvious choice.