2011-12 Hot Stove Thread

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Papelbon shit his pants in the penultimate "save" of a team's season, facing league average hitters and a terrible team.



Stain, if you're even old enough, you ought to remember Mel Rojas.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

An interesting note to this market is that there are an unusually low number of Type A free agents available, which means that the limit which usually doesn't come into play is awfully low. Teams are limited to two Type A's this offseason (unless they lose more than two, then they can sign as many as they lose).

The Phillies will presumably be losing three, so they should be fine unless they really wanted to sign three more type A's.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

So, you're trying to evaluate a guy's entire value based on one blown save. You really are desperate to rip any signing of an established closer.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Papelbon is not perfect, Rick, but having watched him for six years, I rate him more highly than you do. In the end, I think we are arguing a judgment call I'll freely admit is debatable. I think Philly will get reasonably close to its money's worth. Might not, too.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I fucking hate Mel Rojas.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Taking a break from the Papelbon debate, here's the Marlins' new uniforms. The old ones were kind of bland, but at least they weren't ugly. These ... these are not that pretty.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Being too aggressive with the biggest payroll in the league is just about the least damning accusation you can come up with for a baseball team. I think they are going to hit the decline phase of their window of opportunity a little earlier than they should because of it, but they already have one title and could easily win more before it happens.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

fanboy alert: As many shitty Phillies teams as I've suffered through, I say spend away. If they suck in 2015, who gives a shit. Go balls-out to win now.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Here is a Scout.com article on the closing class of 2009, after the 2008 season: http://stlcardinals.scout.com/2/711696.html

All of those guys are done as closers now, I think. It wouldn't surprise me if it's a similar story for other years, since guys like Rivera and Hoffman are the exception. Maybe Papelbon is the next one of those guys, but I agree with Keith Law in that his home run rate isn't going to maintain at a historic low going to Philly.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I'm not about to pretend to be an advanced-stats expert, but unless I'm reading this wrong, the Phillies don't play in the homer haven many folks think.

Boston: 22 of 30 // Philadelphia: 16 of 30

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor/_/sort/HRFactor

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

One-year park factors are tricky, between sample-size issues and changes in weather.

Up through about 2007, Philadelphia's park was consistently toward the top in HR park factor, but since then it's been much more middle-of-the-pack. The possible explanations are endless, so I won't try to speculate on why.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I don't see how signing a really good closer is ever a bad move. Plus, when you have great pitching that's advancing in age, you really want a good closer so you're not tempted to let Cliff Lee work into the ninth every game. Yeah, he blew a big game, but he was 31-3 last year.