2011-12 Hot Stove Thread

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

To me, there are a couple reasons why you don't do the deal:

1) Really good closers become average closers or worse at any point, without warning. Like I said, Rivera and Hoffman are the exception, and even Eck had about a five year run. Papelbon could provide good value for all of his contract, but more likely, he's good for two years, average for one and released / fodder in the fourth.

2) Papelbon was handled with kid gloves by the Sox the past couple years - very light on multi inning sessions, didn't have him work back to back nights usually, etc. Given their track record, they aren't exactly medical savants, but it would worry me if I was signing him to a deal.

3) The Phillies having Cliff Lee and Halladay is a competitive advantage, meaning, they don't have to spend silly money on a closer because they need one less than other teams.

4) The Phillies have holes all over the diamond, most notable at short. If they make other moves, then fine, but otherwise this seems like an unnecessary allocation of resources.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

So, if they'd got him to sign a three-year deal, you'd be OK with it? And you'd be happy with a two-year deal?

And I have to reject the notion that a team with great starting pitchers doesn't need a good closer. The Phillies' success is based on winning the games that Lee and Halladay pitch. So, when they need a little help in the late innings, you're gonna bring a parade of scrubs in to try and finish up for them?

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Aspect of the Pap signing I haven't heard here yet:
Philly, along with Boston and New York, is the roughest media market in baseball. He's handled Boston pretty well, and won't be intimidated by Philly. How a potential free agent will handle your market is a pretty big consideration, as the Yankees (Ed Whitson) and Sox (John Lackey) have learned over the years.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

A two-year deal is great for pretty much any player you want to sign as a free agent... from the club side. It's why practically no decent free agent will sign for it though. All the leverage is on the team's side, unless you get some insane offer. So yes, if I was a GM, I would have loved to sign Papelbon to a two-year deal, but I doubt it was ever an option. (Similarly, you very seldom see guys take arbitration unless they're marginal or old players.)

As far as the starting pitching, if they're really good, it's more likely that you're up by four-plus runs. If you're not, it suggests to me that you need a better offense more than you need a guy to pitch an inning at the very end. A great closer doesn't hurt matters, but to me, the Baseball Hierarchy of Needs goes everyday player, then starting pitcher, then relief pitchers, then utility guys. Philadelphia was first in runs allowed. They finished seventh in runs scored, and they're losing Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard (for a year), and probably only gaining Dom Brown and Hunter Pence (for a full year).

Like I said in a previous post, maybe the Phillies aren't done - If they go out and sign Jose Reyes, I think that's the perfect intersection of their needs and what the market has available. But at best, I think the Papelbon signing maintains the status quo for them, and at worst, it looks as bad as the K-Rod contract by the end.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

The ultimate problem is that it's really hard to figure out who the really good closers are going to be going forward.

Being a great second baseman for six years means you are a really good bet to be a great second baseman for the next few years. With relief pitchers, there's a lot less consistency. The fact that Papelbon has been an elite closer for six of the last seven years doesn't mean a ton for how good he's going to be for his age 31-34 seasons.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

All pitcher signings are riskier than position player signings. And closers are known for their inconsistency. There haven't been many good ones who don't have one horror show season on their resumes. If you need one, and the Phillies do, you have to pay or experiment. The Phils aren't in experimental mode.
I'd rather be in the Phils' front office this a.m. than to be sitting in Cherington's seat

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Very telling line from Law:

Also, as Law points out, they give up a first-round pick, after completely plundering their farm system in the deals for Halladay, Oswalt and Pence the last few years.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I just saw the Marlins made offers to Pujols, Reyes and Buehrle.

Holy balls.

They'll be the highest-paid club drawing 8,000 fans a night.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

OK, but if I'm a Phillies fan (and I'm not) I'm happy to have a guy like this. It's not my money they're giving the guy. And yes, they have less money now to go get help for their offense, but they improved a position where they were needy.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

The soundness of a decision has nothing to do with how happy a fan is about it.

The Phillies' fans defense of this signing is almost word-for-word a repeat of discussions I had with Cubs fans after the Soriano signing.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

As Law said, the history of these big ticket closer signings is too bad to shove aside.

Find one that worked.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I'll strike that gong until my dying day. That has nothing to do with this being a foolish signing.