2011-12 Hot Stove Thread

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I'm not sure why the Brewers offered K-Rod arbitration. I get that they probably wanted a draft pick, but K-Rod seemed like a guy who'd be likely to accept, given that a one-year arb settlement was probably more than he could get out on the market for 2+ years.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

But it shouldn't have. There were way too many closer options on the market for K-Rod to get the kind of money that it would be worth passing on arbitration.

If it costs them Aramis Ramirez, it will turn out to be a huge mistake. They really need the help with Fielder leaving and McGehee is not a full-time answer at third.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Theo Epstein thinks Ian Fucking Stewart is an acceptable option to start at 3b.

The honeymoon is over.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

According to ESPN, here is your free agent 3B class:

Wilson Betemit 3B 30 Free Agent (B) Detroit -- NR --
Casey Blake 3B 38 Free Agent Los Angeles -- NR --
Eric Chavez 3B 34 Free Agent New York -- NR --
Alex Cora 3B 36 Free Agent Washington -- NR --
Greg Dobbs 3B 33 Free Agent Florida -- NR --
Jose Lopez 3B 28 Free Agent Florida -- NR --
Aramis Ramirez 3B 33 Free Agent (B) Chicago -- 7 --
Omar Vizquel 3B 44 Free Agent Chicago -- NR --

Ramirez is the best, and he's not going back to the Cubs. I think Stewart is as good of an upside play as the rest of those guys. Betemit is the second-best of the group, and here is his write-up from Keith Law:

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I really, really hate Ian Stewart as a player.

His upside is that he's an average 3b. His downside is that he's got three humongous red flags: Wrist injury, high K rate, collapsed last season.

If that's the best you can do in February, fine. But in December? Wait it out, scrapheap guys like that will always be around.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Rays have done it again ...

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7335303/source-matt-moore-tampa-bay-rays-reach-five-year-14-million-deal

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Another extraordinarily team-friendly contract.

This is why it's the best management team in the sport. These contracts don't happen by accident.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Here's my question - Who the eff is Matt Moore's agent? Clay Buchholz got four years and $30 million, and I doubt his bargaining power is that much better than Moore's at this point.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Clay Buchholz had already used up his pre-arbitration years when he got that extension.

Matt Moore was under team control for the next six years. For the first two, Tampa Bay could literally fill in his contract for whatever number they wanted, down to the league minimum.

At the end of those two seasons, he would be in line to make a bit more, but still well below market value, for the four seasons after that.

So if he blows out his arm in the next two seasons, he's done with baseball and goes home having made less than $1 million for his career. Instead, he cashed in that risk by taking a guaranteed $14 million at the expense of maybe making $25 million during those arbitration years they just bought out.

It's team-friendly, but it's not absurdly so. The team shifted the risk of him getting hurt from the player to themselves, and got a discount because of that risk.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Longoria's contract was cost-friendly as well, and everyone knew he was one of the top five prospects in MLB.

At the same time, the Moore contract is still record-setting. According to Crasnick, the largest guaranteed contract ever awarded to a pitcher with less than one year of service time. Not including playoffs, he has all of 9 1/3 big league innings under his belt.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Good analysis. These decisions typically turn on a player's appetite for risk.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Given the nature of pitching, it makes perfect financial sense for pitchers to be more risk-averse than position players.