2011-12 Hot Stove Thread

bigpern23 · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

RickStain said:

Not at all, actually. I know it sounds weird from a stathead, but I think people are too focused on the big offensive numbers and overestimating his real value because they discount his defensive and baserunning liabilities. It's about $5 million a year too much right now, and that's even factoring in how poorly he'll likely age.
Click to expand...

Do you also think Gonzalez is overpaid?

bigpern23 · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

RickStain said:

Jonah Keri does a good job of breaking down why this was way, way too much money:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/15034/a-princely-sum-for-detroits-shiny-new-toy

But, at the end of the day, I think this deal makes it a near mortal lock that Detroit is one of the 8 (10?) teams competing for the WS in the next postseason. Of all the sins a baseball team can commit, overpaying for a good player is the least.

The other point Keri brings up is how ridiculously stacked the AL is right now. For the last 15 years or so, virtually every major player switching leagues has been going in that direction. This offseason, the AL got Pujols, Fielder and Darvish. The NL got Mark Beuhrle.
Click to expand...

I'm not really sold on that article. They project Fielder to have basically no better than his worst season to date in every year of that contract, despite the fact that he's entering his peak years.

I'm not really a seamhead, so I don't know what a ZiPS projection is, but that seems awfully pessimistic.

Starman · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

RickStain said:

Jonah Keri does a good job of breaking down why this was way, way too much money:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/15034/a-princely-sum-for-detroits-shiny-new-toy

But, at the end of the day, I think this deal makes it a near mortal lock that Detroit is one of the 8 (10?) teams competing for the WS in the next postseason.
Click to expand...

With the far-and-away best starting pitcher in MLB in mid-prime, one of the half-dozen best relievers, and one of the 3-4 best hitters in the game, they already were. They are now the favorites.

Just heard an anguished call on sports radio, apparently serious, "our children will be paying for Prince Fielder's contract."

Bubbler · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Chef2 said:

Someone check on Bubbler, stat.
Click to expand...

I'm cool. Been resigned to this fate for several years. Just as long as it wasn't a NL Central team, I'm all good.

Gehrig · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Starman said:

RickStain said:

Jonah Keri does a good job of breaking down why this was way, way too much money:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/15034/a-princely-sum-for-detroits-shiny-new-toy

But, at the end of the day, I think this deal makes it a near mortal lock that Detroit is one of the 8 (10?) teams competing for the WS in the next postseason.
Click to expand...

With the far-and-away best starting pitcher in MLB in mid-prime, one of the half-dozen best relievers, and one of the 3-4 best hitters in the game, they already were. They are now the favorites.

Just heard an anguished call on sports radio, apparently serious, "our children will be paying for Prince Fielder's contract."
Click to expand...

You believe Verlander is that much better than Halladay and Kershaw?

Starman · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Gehrig said:

Starman said:

RickStain said:

Jonah Keri does a good job of breaking down why this was way, way too much money:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/15034/a-princely-sum-for-detroits-shiny-new-toy

But, at the end of the day, I think this deal makes it a near mortal lock that Detroit is one of the 8 (10?) teams competing for the WS in the next postseason.
Click to expand...

With the far-and-away best starting pitcher in MLB in mid-prime, one of the half-dozen best relievers, and one of the 3-4 best hitters in the game, they already were. They are now the favorites.

Just heard an anguished call on sports radio, apparently serious, "our children will be paying for Prince Fielder's contract."
Click to expand...

You believe Verlander is that much better than Halladay and Kershaw?
Click to expand...

He was in 2011. Probably in 2012 one is likely to be as good as the other.

sgreenwell · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

bigpern23 said:

RickStain said:

Jonah Keri does a good job of breaking down why this was way, way too much money:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/15034/a-princely-sum-for-detroits-shiny-new-toy

But, at the end of the day, I think this deal makes it a near mortal lock that Detroit is one of the 8 (10?) teams competing for the WS in the next postseason. Of all the sins a baseball team can commit, overpaying for a good player is the least.

The other point Keri brings up is how ridiculously stacked the AL is right now. For the last 15 years or so, virtually every major player switching leagues has been going in that direction. This offseason, the AL got Pujols, Fielder and Darvish. The NL got Mark Beuhrle.
Click to expand...

I'm not really sold on that article. They project Fielder to have basically no better than his worst season to date in every year of that contract, despite the fact that he's entering his peak years.

I'm not really a seamhead, so I don't know what a ZiPS projection is, but that seems awfully pessimistic.
Click to expand...

I imagine what Baseball Prospectus uses - PECOTA - will be even more pessimistic on him based on his body type. The record for really big first basemen going into their 30s isn't positive, and Fielder turns 28 in May. You're beating a lot on Prince bucking a lot of anecdotal evidence provided by guys like Mo Vaughn.

Starman · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Apparently Cabrera playing 3B is in the plans to some extent.

http://www.mlive.com/tigers/index.ssf/2012/01/detroit_tigers_miguel_cabrera.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+detroit-tigers+%28Detroit+Tigers+Impact+-+MLive.com%29

Hank_Scorpio · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

If Cabrera does well and stays at third, with Fielder at first, the Tigers will have to find a spot for one of their top prospects Nick Castellanos in 2-3 years. He's likely to start at AA Erie this year.

Guy_Incognito · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Hank_Scorpio said:

If Cabrera does well and stays at third, with Fielder at first, the Tigers will have to find a spot for one of their top prospects Nick Castellanos in 2-3 years. He's likely to start at AA Erie this year.
Click to expand...

By that time the Martinez contract will be done & they can put one of them back at DH.

Starman · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Whenever you have more than two slug-footed DH/1B/LFs on the roster, you immediately need to start figuring out somewhere else for one of them to play.

If Martinez returns, the Tigers will have four.

bigpern23 · Jan 24, 2012

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

sgreenwell said:

bigpern23 said:

RickStain said:

Jonah Keri does a good job of breaking down why this was way, way too much money:

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/15034/a-princely-sum-for-detroits-shiny-new-toy

But, at the end of the day, I think this deal makes it a near mortal lock that Detroit is one of the 8 (10?) teams competing for the WS in the next postseason. Of all the sins a baseball team can commit, overpaying for a good player is the least.

The other point Keri brings up is how ridiculously stacked the AL is right now. For the last 15 years or so, virtually every major player switching leagues has been going in that direction. This offseason, the AL got Pujols, Fielder and Darvish. The NL got Mark Beuhrle.
Click to expand...

I'm not really sold on that article. They project Fielder to have basically no better than his worst season to date in every year of that contract, despite the fact that he's entering his peak years.

I'm not really a seamhead, so I don't know what a ZiPS projection is, but that seems awfully pessimistic.
Click to expand...

I imagine what Baseball Prospectus uses - PECOTA - will be even more pessimistic on him based on his body type. The record for really big first basemen going into their 30s isn't positive, and Fielder turns 28 in May. You're beating a lot on Prince bucking a lot of anecdotal evidence provided by guys like Mo Vaughn.
Click to expand...

Mo Vaughn's six best seasons came between ages 27 and 32. Cecil Fielder hit 39 home runs and drove in 117 runs at age 32.

So, as far as anecdotal evidence goes, one would think Prince would have four or five solid years of being as productive, or more productive, than he has been to this point in his career.

Ages 28-32 are traditionally a hitter's peak years. Fielder is entering that stretch. To predict that during his peak years he's going be as bad or worse than he has ever been in his career is pessimistic at best.

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2011-12 Hot Stove Thread

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