2011-12 Hot Stove Thread

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Okay. Now we're getting somewhere.

First, so you've proven that Fielder drives in more runs than he gives up on the basepaths. Congrats. Now what about his fielding? And more to the point: all that just proves that Prince Fielder is a good player. Nobody disputes that. Using your method, he's a 50-run hitter, but he's a -12 run fielder and baserunner. So he should be getting paid the same as a 38-run hitter with neutral fielding and baserunning, or even a 30-run hitter with good fielding. But he's not. He's being paid like a 50-run hitter with neutral fielding and baserunning, which he isn't.

Second, why do we consider Prince Fielder a "120 RBI" hitter? He's been substantially less than that for almost exactly half his career. He's had six major league seasons, and they've perfectly alternated between that elite 120-RBI level of hitter and seasons where he was significantly less than that.

The only way you can try to justify Fielder as being worth what he's getting paid is if you pretend that fielding and defense don't matter, *and* you pretend that he's a lock to be the 2011/2009/2007 hitter for the next few years and not the 2010/2008/2006 hitter.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Anyway, baseball is baseball, runs are runs. Yes, rare events are less likely to occur in a short series. But when they do occur, their impact is significantly magnified (Slide, Giambi! Damn you, slide!).

So the odds of Fielder impacting a regular season game and a postseason game are pretty much the same, positive or negative.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Fair points all. And while I don't follow a lot of the deeper SABR stats for batting, I generally understand them and can see the value in many of them. The defensive metrics are a lot harder to quantify and I'm highly skeptical of their accuracy for determining how many runs a guy saves and such.

The thing is, I don't think Fielder is worth what he's getting paid, but I'm arguing that the market dictates that he is. There's just no way an agent is going to present Fielder's stats side-by-side with Adrian Gonzalez and get a lower AAV for his client.

The AAV of Fielder's contract is in line with the market, particularly when you take into account the Tigers' sense of desperation adding some value.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Adrian Gonzalez is a much more valuable baseball player than Prince Fielder. He just is.

If the market thinks Gonzalez and Fielder are equally valuable players, then the market is hugely flawed. Which, well, it is, and that's why smart teams do well.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

The last paragraph is what worries me the most about Fielder, in addition to his ridiculous size as a human being. Adam Dunn is an older player, obviously, but he was as consistent as you can get and still fell off a cliff at one point, as opposed to having a gradual decline. Fielder is already showing weird splits from year to year, plus the track record in his own family isn't the greatest, although I realize he's not his dad.

I think most playoff studies have shown that the extra revenue between finishing one game out and finishing in the playoffs is about $10 million to $20 million to $30 million, depending on each round you advance to, but I'm not sure the Tigers were a Fielder away from yes/no for the playoffs each of the next nine years. I think at best, they get 3 awesome years, 3 average years and 3 sunk cost years from him.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Speaking of baseball revenue, BP has a good one from Maury Brown on how the AL West is becoming the AL East: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15886

Basically, the huge TV contracts that the Angels and Rangers have signed / will sign allow them to essentially become the Yankees and Red Sox of the AL West. A side effect that he doesn't mention and that I'll bring up is, I wonder when someone will cross past the $30 million a year barrier for a 5+ year contract. The next time an A-Rod level player in his prime becomes a free agent, we're probably seeing it, since you now have even more disposable money for owners to spend.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Being a fan of an NL team makes it easier, but I just love the AL arms race.

The Tigers, right now, don't look like much more than the 6th best team in the league to me.

The Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers and Angels are probably better right now. Unless they split the WC this year, those are five great teams fighting for three spots.

Meanwhile, Toronto, Cleveland and Kansas City are right on the cusp and would probably challenge for a playoff spot in some NL divisions.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

I think that's a pretty fair assessment, whereas the ZiPS projections didn't give Fielder credit for having any awesome years.

That's why I don't think any team should have given him more than five years. Maybe with a vesting option for six or a guaranteed sixth if you're really desperate, but you sign that deal knowing the last two are very risky.

Nine? That's insanity.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Owners see their clubs as entertainment businesses and it comes as no surprise to most of us that they will aggressively pursue marquee players who, in addition to whatever their fucking WARP projects over the duration of a deal, will provide the value of attracting fans in terms of attendance and viewership and merchandise sales. They neither over- nor under-pay these players; rather, they pay them market prices.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Well Rick, once again I agree. I'd rather have Gonzalez than Fielder. But I can't help remembering that the "smart" team which acquired Gonzalez is also paying John Lackey $17 million per annum. Any team that decides to compete in the top-level free agent or trade for potential free agent market is going to have both hits and errors. I also believe the error rate is higher for pitchers than for sluggers.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Winning draws more fans and sells more merchandise than any player ever will. Making the smartest decisions to help you win games will make you much, much more money in the long run than making shiny mistakes and justifying it with "well, the fans will love him."

The "market" is not always right, especially not in a very limited, non-fluid market such as the MLB free agent market.

 

Re: 2011 Hot Stove Thread

Fluctuation and variables play a part in every market. You may be confounded by a particular result/price based on your understanding of the facts, but the market is a product of a buyer and a seller -- not an observer.

I think we can agree winning championships with colorful and popular players would be the optimum way to increase revenue. However, an owner can only make one of those things happen with any degree of of certainty by writing a check.