2012 MLB Regular Season Running Thread

Is it OK if we talk about the Giants?

Yes, the Dodgers may not be much stronger than a AAA team with Kemp and Ethier out, but, think about it ... three straight shutouts in the small park/post-steroid era. First time since the rivalry started in 1890 the Giants have shut out the Dodgers three straight. And the third by Lincecum, who's been the weak link all season.

Makes you shudder to think what they would have done with Jetes [/manky].

 

Small park? Uh, no.

 

I'd love to see The Freak get it together again. I hope he does.

 

OPS is better. Hell, plenty of stats are better because they don't have the huge flaws WAR is showing right now. The bottom line is there is no one magic measure that works. You have to use a combination of metrics.

Let them come back with something better. Right now, their best effort sucks.

 

The one that needs the most work is BABIP.

BABIP tells us a stud like Jeremy Hellickson has no control over his results.

 

I agree with OOP that Baseball-Reference's WAR implementation is pretty much useless for pitching and defense, which makes it pretty much useless.

 

No, it doesn't.

 

Then what does it say.

 

9-9 in Denver in the 5th. Another HR by Ian Desmond, who I'm not so sure can be denied an All-Star pick.

 

I think that's part of it.

The other part is the decline, both on the field and financially that have hit traditional NL big market teams such as the Dodgers, Mets, Cubs and Braves. Just for comparison, the Yanks' payroll is higher than the Mets and Dodgers combined in 2012.

 

It says that other than home runs, walks, and strikeouts, major league pitchers tend to give up a batting average in balls in play of about .290. If it is well over .290, you can rest assured that the pitcher's ERA will be coming down. If it is well under .290, you can rest assured that his ERA will improve. There are some variations for pitchers who give up a high percentage of ground balls. But for the most part, it works pretty well to tell who is overperforming and who is underperforming.

Last year, Jeremy Hellickson had a .224 BABIP and an ERA of 2.95. This year, he has a .258 BABIP and an ERA of 3.45.