2012 MLB Regular Season Running Thread

As the wild card, because the 2015 Pirates are going to be freaking awesome.

 

How does BABIP account for a guy losing a couple miles off his fastball? Pitches that were put in play off the handle all the sudden come off the barrel. Ground outs to second become doubles in the gap.

Or if a pitcher was consistently hitting his spots one season and can't the next (because of injury or lack of confidence or whatever). How do any of those very realistic variables get taken into account?

 

He usually had good run support last year but still sucked. It is a surprise that Pittsburgh gives him good run support if that's what you meant. But he is a guy who comes unraveled and loses command. But there's no such thing as clutch or pressure as the sabremetricians will tell us so it must just be luck. I will bet though that his ERA will probably be 2 runs better than last year. And accounting for the NL and a weaker division i could see maybe .50 better. But last year he finished 5.15 with 190 hits and 172 ks, 83 bbs in 190 innings. If Pittsburgh is within 2 games of the wild card in mid-August I'd be pretty surprised to see him dominate.

 

Dick isn't the ERA coming down and the ERA improving the same thing.

 

There were a lot of studies that showed that BABIP is pretty consistent for all pitchers, regardless of stuff or control.

If a guy suddenly loses a few MPH, then a lot of things will happen:

Some of the balls that used to be BIP outs will turn into line drive hits.
Some of the balls that used to be line drive hits or outs will turn into home runs.
Some of the balls that used to be Ks will turn into weak contact for BIP outs.

It all roughly balances out.

 

I looked up Jack Morris. BABIP of .276 in 1991. BABIP of .333 in 1993 when he'd lost it.

I imagine that a soaring BABIP like that might indicate that a guy is losing it? I'm not sure. I defer to RickStain and some others who might have read a little bit more than I have on it. But typically, if a guy has the same peripheral stats - like K's, BB's, and HR's - but his BABIP is bouncing around, that's probably luck. Because otherwise, you'd notice it in the other areas, too. Morris started giving up a lot more home runs, though his K's and BB's were remarkably consistent late.

 

Oops. I meant that if it is well under .290, his ERA will get worse.

 

Who is the only MLB pitcher who has hit double digits in saves and holds this season?

(Speaking of stupid stats, holds ...)

 

Guy may have thrown all he had left in the 91 WS. Great performance by both guys, great series.

 

Soriano?

 

uh-uh.

Hint: The guy also had a ridiculous number of decisions for a reliever two seasons ago.