2012 MLB Regular Season Running Thread

According to FanGraphs' formula, he's worth $26 million this season, being paid $23 million.

Anyone want to try again?

 

If you want to make a compelling argument, you might have to do better than FanGraphs. Why should I believe their formula is foolproof?

 

For a team with a payroll of $94 million, I don't know that anyone deserves $26 million.

 

I don't think I do, but OK. If you want to impugn the player value formula at FanGraphs, by all means, do so, but they're a pretty reliable source of data, to my mind.

No other catcher has ever won more than two batting titles; Mauer has three and will challenge for the fourth this season.

He leads the American League in on-base percentage.

His worth is dramatically understated by people who fail to grasp that there hasn't been another player like him, really. It's like having Rod Carew or Tony Gwynn playing a premium defensive position.

 

Completely and utterly beside the point, but I'd point out that the Twins are paying Matt Capps $14 million.

Joe Mauer's contract is the least of their worries when it comes to money and bad contracts.

 

But he's only a half-time catcher, he's a #3 hitter who isn't showing much power, and his average this season is below Gwynn's career average.

 

One thing about Mauer's contract is that a lot of its value is tied to him playing catcher, something I don't think anyone expects to last through the end of the contract. If he's batting .327 but hitting only nine homers and driving in 75 runs (as he did in 137 games in 2010) while playing first base, he won't be worth anywhere near $26m.

 

He catches more like 3/4 of the time, his career BA isn't far from Gwynn (.324 to .338) and he walks more than Gwynn did. (Career OBP= Mauer: .405; Gwynn: .388) Net result? Higher OPS+ career than Gwynn -- 135 to 132.

He was hurt most of 2010. Tried to play through it, was not successful.

 

According to bb-ref, Mauer has played in 82 games this year and he has caught in 41 of them. Sounds pretty half-time to me.

I agree that he has become underrated with his resurgence this year. The idea that he is "worth" $26 million because FanGraphs says so is one of the more laughable examples of statistical masturbation in the baseball world, or any world.

 

He's 29, has never hit more than 28 HRs in a season and has never driven in 100 runs. The chances of him ever living up to that contract while playing anywhere but catcher are very slim.

 

The argument was that he isn't worth his contract -- which was, again, beside my original point, but that's fine.

Based on career numbers, here, in 2012, what does a 3/4 time catcher (1/4 time DH/1B) who hits .328 and gets on base at a .405 clip deserve to make? What's his value? And how does it correspond to what he's actually being paid?

 

I don't know ... ask Chooch.

Wait; he's making $5M next season.

OK, career numbers aren't that. But his last three years have been .302-.283-.349.