2012 MLB Regular Season Running Thread

I'd like to see his work on showing that the odds of missing Strasburg costing them a championship are "a lot more than minuscule."

 

Who, Manky's?

 

Rany's. He's a smart guy, and he has the tools to put a number on it. I'd like to see his number.

 

I liked it because it actually put some though and effort into it, instead of the usual BS arguments you hear.

 

Oh, I loved the article as a whole. He makes some excellent points.

But so much of this discussion revolves around the odds of Strasburg being the difference between winning and not winning a championship. The author has the statistical background to try to put a number on it, so I'd like to see him do it because just calling it "not minuscule" doesn't cut it for me.

 

I'd rather hear Manky's take.

 

as would OOP

 

Jeter couldn't carry Trout's jock. I'd say the latest leg injury has hurt Jeter's value, but it couldn't affect his range. If it's not hit right at him, he wasn't getting it anyway.

 

Good god look at what A-Rod did as a 20 yr old. Steroids or not, he's a HOF'er.

 

How the F is he going to come up with that number. does saber have a person he needs to consult. how about the numberf of teams who have won the world series or pennant after their ace was lost in august or later.

 

You can do a pretty good job of computing the odds of any team winning a single game based on overall team quality and that day's starting pitcher. It's obviously not perfect, but it gets you in the ballpark.

You can use that to create a statistical model of the postseason. The best bet is probably to turn that into a Monte Carlo simulation with the teams we have in the playoffs.

You should come up with something like the Nats winning the title 15% of the time with Strasburg and 10% of the time without him, for example. It'll get you in the ballpark so that we know what we're dealing with.

The author of that piece worked for Baseball Prospectus for a long time, and they frequently made use of such analysis, so he should be able to come up with something.