2012 MLB Regular Season Running Thread

I'm sure you're up to this, and I seriously want to know, but how does one "ignore the numbers" in making the case that Trout is as good a hitter as a guy going for the first Triple Crown in almost half a century?

 

I was going to respond to that until I realized who wrote it.

 

Not true. One thing changed: A lot of owners read "Moneyball", fell in love with it, and then ordered their baseball people to fire their scouts.

So a lot of knowledgeable baseball lifers lost their jobs and still haven't recovered.

Meanwhile, MLB baseball ops departments quickly made Billy Beane's "inefficiency" advantage obsolete and the best front offices today — especially the ones led by the so-called sabermetric GMs — combine a healthy blend of statistical analysis with traditional scouting. Every GM you talk to emphasizes how important it is to have both perspectives in helping you make smarter decisions. (Theo's great comment on the subject is: "Each one is a lense, and you need both lenses to see clearly.")

http://sabr.org/latest/sabranalytics-general-managers-panel

But you're right in that the biggest impact of "Moneyball" was outside of baseball, namely in the business world where Billy Beane has made a fortune as a motivational speaker.

Any edge he had in baseball with statistical analysis was minor and brief. The Red Sox were already far ahead of the A's before "Moneyball" came out (and, in fact, used their system to great effect with the famous "Diamond Mind" simulation before the 2003 ALDS,.)

 

I should have said ignore the "advanced" numbers. My point is that you can ignore WAR or whatever else you don't believe in. Cabrera and Trout are 1A and 1B as the best hitters in the American League, right? Can we all agree on that? I would give an edge to Cabrera based on the power numbers, so if you want to rank them 1 and 2, that's fine. Regardless, they're not that far apart.

OK, here's where I'm going with this:

- On one hand, we've got the #2 best hitter in the AL, who also happens to be the #1 outfielder in the league AND the #1 baserunner. A complete player.

- On the other hand, we've got the #1 hitter in the AL, who is at best the #7 or #8 third baseman in the league, and probably not among the best 20-25 baserunners in the league.

Is the gap between the #1 and #2 hitter in the league so large — is Cabrera so valuable as a hitter — that we can ignore fielding and/or baserunning and crown Cabrera as the most valuable player in the league?

I don't think so.

 

What Moddy and AQB said. [/postpadding]

 

It's not nice to postpad.

 

Seedings should be determined based on run differential.

 

Let's just award the trophy to the team with the most Jeters.

 

I believe the Yankees will win it all either way but Detroit shouldn't even be in the playoffs. Tampa or Anaheim should get in instead.

 

Awesome.

 

Detroit tries just as hard as Tampa.