2012 MLB Regular Season Running Thread

Boy, the Texas Rangers didn't win today's game, so much as Tim Welke gave it to them. Unbelievable.

 

I figure Berkman is the least likely of the three to reach the mark. This is due partly to what you've mentioned and due partly to him being unable to stay healthy. The guy hasn't had 500 ABs for about four seasons.

 

As bad a call as it was, the bases were loaded with no outs in the top of the 11th. Situation still doesn't favor Detroit even if they call it foul.

 

Hey Chip... oh sure, there are no guarantees. Detroit still had to bat in the bottom of the 11th and didn't get the job done. Eventually we're going to get full replay, though, because of calls like these.

 

One thing to note about Lohse is that opponents' BABIP is at .175 right now. Not saying he won't have a great season (and since he's on my fantasy team, I hope to hell he does), but that won't hold up, so expect some runs on the horizon.

 

Probably true. But his stats last year were a lot better than I thought they were.

Not saying he's become a Hall of Famer all of a sudden, but 16-17 wins and an ERA under 3 seem like a virtual certainty reasonable assumption at this point.

 

Even last year his BABIP was a little low at .272 and he pitched to a 3.39 ERA.

I like Lohse and thought he might be in line for a good year, so I'm definitely not ruling it out, but I'm also very wary of what that BABIP might mean and trying to decide if I want to maybe try to sell high and see what I can get for him.

 

You can assume all you want, Kyle Lohse won't finish with an ERA under 3.

But as a fellow fantasy owner, enjoy this while it lasts.

 

The question is how long to ride it.

 

You ride 'til she bucks you or you don't ride at all.

 

If I had him, I'd definitely be looking to trade soon. You've gotten the best you're going to get out of him.

 

Lohse has discovered a good slider. That's the difference. He has thrown a slider in the past, but he got away from it due to an inability to throw it for strikes. Now he has improved his command of the pitch.

Because he is able to throw the slider for strikes, he is now throwing it 7 percent more often. That's about 7 more sliders per game. This has allowed him to throw his changeup 5 percent less often. So that's about 5 fewer changeups per game. This makes him tougher to hit.

The success of the slider and the reduction in the number of changeups he has thrown has led to fewer good swings and fewer hits. Plus, he has good command right now. That has cut his walks per nine in half. The guy doesn't give up many long balls. When you combine that with fewer baserunners, it's easy to understand the difference.

As with any pitcher, his future success depends on his ability to continue doing what he is doing now. If he loses command of the slider, he'll have to revert back to the changeup. His walks and hits will increase, and he'll be more susceptible to the long ball. And that would probably make him more of a 3.50 ERA kind of pitcher.