2013 MLB Hall of Fame Screechfest

I understand that he was more deserving of consideration than those who get flushed off the ballot immediately because they don't belong in the discussion in the first place.

But judging the cumulative result is shaky, when you back up the process to the individual ballots. Should Al Oliver be in the HOF? That's the question I'm supposed to answer as a voter. If I check the box next to his name, I'm saying yes, yes he should. Each and every other voter makes that same yes/no decision.

Gets a little tricky when we start to seek outcomes in which at least 25% of voters say no BUT at least 5% say yes. The process isn't nuanced enough to really allow an individual voter to aim for that outcome. He/she might guess, and figure that a "yes" vote could keep a guy like Oliver on the ballot without fear it could put him in Cooperstown. Still seems a wasted exercise, though. Vote for those who belong, leave the rest unchecked.

 

Yeah, that was like last year when I saw a couple of people say Braun should have been closer to Posey in MVP voting. OK, who should have switched his vote then?

 

That's a good way to look at it, and it's not like he was ever going to get in... Seeing that Bernie Williams get 3.3 percent this year kind of puts things into proper perspective.

 

His 10-year period from 1933-42 is pretty impressive. I'd don't have time right now but I'd love to see where it ranked among other outfielders of the time. He was the National League's starting left fielder in All-Star Games from 33-40.

The only NL outfielder to have a longer starting streak ever is Mays. It ties Bonds for second. And no AL outfielder started as many in a row.

 

There were only eight teams in each league in those days, so I'm not sure it's that impressive.

 

Whatever the stat inflation was at that time, though, he was clearly one of the very best players in the league, which is the main standard to measure him. And FWIW the ballpark factor for St. Louis was about even the year he won the Triple Crown, so for that year he was the very best hitter without a lot of other factors coming into play (i.e. the Helton comparison). He has the signature achievement and a sustained run as one of the league's top players. Not really sure what the issue is regarding the Hall.

 

Yeah, Medwick was legitimately great. He wasn't the best outfielder in the National League, not with Mel Ott around. But he was second-best for a decade.

Here's the list of outfielders with 500 games played from 1930-45, ranked by OPS+. Everyone after Medwick at No. 13 is a Hall of Famer, so unless you think none of those guys belong, he's well-deserving when compared to his peers. If you bump up the criteria to 1,000 games, he ranks No. 5.

And for further evidence of just how amazing Babe Ruth was ... he's still leading this list without including any of his career from 1914-29. That's mind-blowing.

Also, Indian Bob Johnson is criminally underrated. How is he not in the Hall of Fame?

Code:

                                                                                                     
Rk           Player OPS+    G From   To   Age   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB  SO   BA  OBP  SLG
1         Babe Ruth  194  713 1930 1935 35-40 2405  607  797 110  24 198  652  632 351 .331 .472 .644
2      Ted Williams  190  586 1939 1942 20-23 2104  541  749 154  33 127  515  495 196 .356 .481 .642
3      Joe DiMaggio  159  979 1936 1942 21-27 3978  858 1349 243  82 219  930  404 196 .339 .403 .607
4           Mel Ott  158 2304 1930 1945 21-36 8181 1620 2483 415  63 449 1605 1521 789 .304 .416 .534
5    Charlie Keller  157  726 1939 1945 22-28 2624  520  774 109  55 132  526  540 321 .295 .416 .529
6       Lefty ODoul  145  626 1930 1934 33-37 2200  399  759 119  31  73  364  223  87 .345 .410 .527
7       Babe Herman  142 1006 1930 1945 27-42 3640  584 1166 259  71 123  639  344 378 .320 .380 .532
8    Bill Nicholson  142  964 1936 1945 21-30 3592  567 1010 180  45 152  650  484 502 .281 .371 .483
9       Hack Wilson  140  593 1930 1934 30-34 2013  354  597 112  17 107  459  314 325 .297 .392 .529
10      Bob Johnson  139 1863 1933 1945 27-39 6920 1239 2051 396  95 288 1283 1075 851 .296 .393 .506
11     Wally Berger  138 1350 1930 1940 24-34 5163  809 1550 299  59 242  898  435 693 .300 .359 .522
12       Jeff Heath  137  957 1936 1945 21-30 3489  546 1040 194  83 122  619  366 438 .298 .366 .506
13      Joe Medwick  135 1848 1932 1945 20-33 7389 1172 2397 524 113 199 1335  414 532 .324 .362 .507
14      Chuck Klein  135 1540 1930 1944 25-39 5617 1001 1766 339  64 246 1022  533 438 .314 .375 .529
15      Chick Hafey  134  713 1930 1937 27-34 2568  437  810 173  41  79  417  226 268 .315 .375 .507
16   Enos Slaughter  133  666 1938 1942 22-26 2531  421  780 150  54  63  391  267 184 .308 .378 .485
17     Earl Averill  133 1517 1930 1941 28-39 5756 1114 1821 358 115 220 1068  711 465 .316 .394 .533
20       Paul Waner  129 1948 1930 1945 27-42 7102 1139 2312 435 117  75  913  799 303 .326 .396 .451
23    Tommy Henrich  127  658 1937 1942 24-29 2338  452  657 141  31  93  395  365 184 .281 .382 .487
25       Al Simmons  126 1395 1930 1944 28-42 5477  948 1758 302  89 192 1115  409 489 .321 .370 .514
26      Earle Combs  125  694 1930 1935 31-36 2652  572  841 135  70  31  329  346 114 .317 .397 .456
29     Dixie Walker  121 1391 1931 1945 20-34 5046  815 1538 293  80  84  741  575 242 .305 .377 .445
30     Goose Goslin  121 1143 1930 1938 29-37 4310  766 1299 260  63 140  788  530 304 .301 .380 .488
35      Kiki Cuyler  119 1082 1930 1938 31-39 4128  687 1294 225  76  58  572  379 411 .313 .377 .447
41    Heinie Manush  115 1097 1930 1939 28-37 4343  713 1405 275  88  53  649  275 178 .324 .367 .464

 

Here are my thoughts on the players I've listed.

Yes.

He was still either the best in the NL (or MLB) during his 5.5 year peak or one of the top 2 during that time. Period. Here's what the guys and gals of the period, 1932-1937 (his injury occurred in that '37 ASG that snapped his career short)would still have known about Ol' Diz (NL lead in bold):

1932- 18-15 (.545), 3.30 ERA, 46 G, 33 GS, 16 CG, 4 SHO, 286 IP, 191 K, MVP-19

1933- 20-18 (.526), 3.04 ERA, 48 G, 34 GS, 26 CG, 3 SHO, 293 IP, 199 K, MVP-7

1934- 29-7 (.806), 2.66 ERA, 50 G, 33 GS, 24 CG, 7 SHO, 311.2 IP, 195 K, AS, MVP-1 (after taking away 1 W)

1935- 28-12 (.700), 3.04 ERA, 50 G, 36 GS, 29 CG, 3 SHO, 325.1 IP, 190 K, AS, MVP-2

1936- 24-13 (.649), 3.17 ERA, 51 G, 34 GS, 28 CG, 2 SHO, 315 IP, 195 K, AS, MVP-2

1937- 13-10 (.569), 2.69 ERA, 27 G, 25 GS, 17 CG, 4 SHO, 197.1 IP, 120 K, AS

Some stats they may not have been aware of back in the Depression Era, but may yet have understood when they knew what he meant to the team (again NL lead in bold):

1932: 10 GF, 2 SV, 6.0 K/9

1933: 11 GF, 4 SV, 6.1 K/9

1934: 14 GF, 7 SV, 5.6 K/9

1935: 14 GF, 5 SV, 5.3 K/9

1936: 17 GF, 11 SV, 5.6 K/9, 3.68 K/BB

1937: 5.5 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 3.64 K/BB

His ERA + from 1932-1937: 120, 114, 159, 135, 124, 147.

It would depend on how many fewer games he won, and how many fewer 20-win seasons he'd have. There was also the perfect game Hunter pitched in 1968. Hunter has a LOT of star markers that comparable pitchers don't have. What if Hunter didn't begin his career with some lousy KC teams and a 1968 Oakland team that was only 82-80?

No way. He's the Cy Seymour of pitchers.

Wilson held two key records; the NL single-season HR record (56) which stood until McGwire broke it, and the 191 RBI record, which is unlikely to ever be broken. Despite this, he was a HOF controversy for years, until the remnants of the Frisch cabal voted to induct him in 1979. Wilson's lifetime BA was .307; if he had not kept his BA over .300 for his career, he'd have suffered the same fate as Maris.

No way Chuck makes it without the Baker Bowl. Klein had a BA/HR/RBI per 154 games of .397/44/158 in his 578 games in the Baker Bowl, and a BA/HR/RBI per 154 games of .277/18/80 in his 1175 games at all other parks. IOW, he was very ordinary anywhere but the Baker Bowl.

Marquard was a pure crony pick. The three (3) consecutive 20-win seasons helped justify the pick, however, so, no, Frisch may not have felt confident enough to foist Marquard on the HOF without that qualification.

Yes. Maz's selection is, IMO, due to the perception that he was the greatest defensive player at any position in the history of baseball, a perception put forth by Bill James, of all people. James later on penned an article showing how Willie Randolph's walks were more valuable than Maz's DPs, but once you're the "greatest of all time" in something, your HOF candidacy gains traction. Maz was a "Baseball Digest" HOF pick with a key (unintentional) sabermetric endorsement.

Rizzuto needed BOTH of these things, plus the big, out-of-career-context 1950 season, plus being linked with Pee Wee Reese (inaccurately) who was inducted first. If Rizzuto was a career Philadelphia Phillie, he wouldn't be in the HOF, even if he, and not Richie Ashburn, were the voice of the Phils.

Being a Yankee isn't as big a deal in getting into the HOF as it seems. Now if Gordon had been a CAREER Yankee, he MAY have been inducted earlier into the HOF. His short career hurt him, and his .268 career BA didn't help, but Gordon's career has some caveats. He missed 2 years to WWII, and was released after the 1950 because the Indians had a hotshot 2B prospect in Bobby Avila. Gordon focused on managing, and was player-manager for the PCL Sacramento Solons for the next 4 years. Had he been able to sign on with another big league team, he'd have made it to 300 career HRs (Gordon hadn't lost his power.) which would have caused him to be viewed differently.

In truth, Gordon wouldn't have made the HOF had it not been for the emergence of sabermetrics, which caused his career to be viewed in a different light. Bobby Grich needs the same kind of boost.

 

Without copying and pasting Buck's stats: I will throw out some observations.

-- I don't think Chick Hafey is a legit HOFer, but your point stands.

-- Johnson is a fascinating case...great player, but got no traction because never had a standout super season, he played for mainly losing A's teams, he lived in the shadow of those teams, he lived in the shadow of Al Simmons as a player, he played, ended up with a sub .300 batting career batting average, which meant a lot to sports fans.

-- Wally Berger is an interesting person in front of Medwick as well.

 

Indian Bob is definitely a borderline guy who was immensely hurt by the franchise he played for as well as the late start to his career. He played on two winning teams in 13 seasons, his first year and his one year in Washington. The other 11 were last or next to last place finishes. I'll bet he was viewed as the quintessential "someone on a bad team has to put up numbers guy"

For as short a career as he had, he was more of a compiler than someone who had a great peak. His best OPS+ by almost 20 points came when he was 38 in a war year.

 

And I piggybacked on buckweaver's search with this one -- 1,500 games as an outfielder from 1900-1948, with the end point being three years Medwick's last season, and he is tied with Paul Waner for 10th place in OPS+.

So the voters were looking at a 50-year span and he was a top 10 outfielder. And if you do it with the lens from when he was inducted, through the 1968 season, he was a top 20 outfielder over a seven-decade period, sitting at 19th.

And from 1930-1945, there are only five players, regardless of position, who played at least 1,800 games and had an OPS+ of at least 135 and Medwick is one of them. No. 6 drops down to an OPS+ of 104.

From 1920-1965, Medwick is 13th on that list of OPS+ for at least 1,800 games, regardless of position.

 

Didn't want to start a new Hall of Fame thread.

I was thinking about Larry Doby(player only) and I was curious if you thought he was worthy of the Hall of Fame?

Doby missed 44 and 45 to wartime service. When he returned, he was a Negro League all-star for most of two seasons. His 1947 major league season showed a bit of adjusting to the league. but by 1948, he was ready to go. His Negro League stats are available here: http://www.baseball-reference.com/nlb/player.cgi?id=doby--001law

Well, why did Doby not have at least another 2-3 seasons in the majors? The color line is the answer, and guess what gave rise to that. It's a more subtle form of racism, I agree, but it still springs from that poisoned well. A big portion of his value was in the walks he drew, and that wasn't appreciated at the time by many, whether the player was white, black or polka-dotted.

But even without his Negro League time, he did quite well. In my main approach, I look at three aspects of wins above average and career WAR. The only one he isn't at HOF level is career WAR, where he's at 49.4 and the cutoff I use is 50. Any credit for Negro League play, and he clears that one. The others:
I look for 30 career WAA, he had 30.4
I look for 14 WAA in his best three seasons, he had 14.7
I look for 17.5 WAA in his best five consecutive seasons, and he had 20.6.

He was a seven time all-star;
was in the top 10 among position players in WAR 8 times, once 1st and twice 2nd;
was in the top 10 in OBP six times;
he was in the top 10 in slugging percentage 8 times, once first and once second;
he was in the top 10 in OPS 9 times, once leading the league and two more times second;
was in the top 10 in runs scored 6 times;
was in the top 10 in HR 7 times, leading the league twice and third two more times; and
was in the top 10 in RBI six times, once first in the league and second another time.

The only two AL OF who were truly his contemporaries who were better were T Williams and Mantle.

I see Doby as worthy, if in the lower echelon of HOFers, without any credit for seasons lost due to military service and the color line, Add modest credit for those things, and he's comfortably in for me. Add to that the fact he did that as the groundbreaking African American player in the Negro Leagues, and I say of course he belongs. Subtract the trailblazer thing, he's still good enough IMHO. If you also withhold credit for his wartime service and 1946-47 Negro League play, I think he's just good enough for the Hall.