2013 MLB Hall of Fame Screechfest

That's a reasonable approach Joe.

I happen to think the more time passes the less harshly we'll view the steroid users. Especially after someone who is already in gets busted, as I suspect will happen.

 

1) You're assuming you know when he would have started.

2) Going from 39 to 27 to 3 (and done) just as the cat gets out of the bag and testing is implemented is suggestive of something.

 

No, none at all. Other than the era, his teammates, his physique there is nothing that would lead you to believe Bagwell used.

I don't care if he did or didn't but let's not be so naive. It was an even a playing field as any other in baseball. I would love to know what people believe was a clean and non tainted era?

So what are the pious and almighty going to do with the next wave of PED cheats and adderall users?

 

Sosa failed a test. It came out later, a la A-Rod and Ortiz.

 

I wasn't talking about the other stuff. I'm saying if you look at his HR totals, there isn't a year or two spike so far out of wack wit the career numbers that suggests it. His arc follows a traditional rise and fall just going by the numbers.

Now if you want to argue that the middle numbers should read 21-33-24-23-37 instead of 31-43-34-42-47 because of steroids, I get that. But there is no Brady Anderson one-year jump. There is no Bondsian' jump of 30 in one season.

Is it so far-fetched to believe a 25-year old who could hit 20 homers and be the MVP a year later could get to 43 in four years or 47 in seven?

 

I laughed when I saw Royce Clayton's name.
He might have trouble making the Hall of Good.

 

Bonds: "I do really care. I may say I don’t, but I do really care. I’ve been through a lot in my life so not too many things bother me. Making the Hall of Fame, would it be something that’s gratifying because of what I’ve sacrificed? Sure. Baseball has been a big part of our lives. We’ve sacrificed our bodies. It’s the way we made our living."

http://blog.sfgate.com/giants/2012/11/28/barry-bonds-in-new-interview-on-his-hall-of-fame-bid-i-dont-understand-all-the-controversy-were-having-about-it/

Also, he admits that he could have been less of a dick and done some other stuff differently.

He's pretty good at being a nice guy when he wants something.

 

I happen to think you're right on time softening the views on the users. And that's a great point as to why it might happen.

Or one suspected user will get in, after which he'll serve as an "If he's in, why isn't _____ in?" door holder for others. Maybe there are enough who'll vote for Bonds and Clemens this year, and the softening of views will commence with next year's ballot.

Me, I'm waiting and using the time the induction process allows. There's no rush.

For instance, I waited 14 years with Jim Rice (didn't think he belonged, not a PED issue) ... and then didn't vote for him in year 15 either.

 

Holy smokes, the next 3-4 classes are loaded. you are going to end up with 20 great candidates backlogged on some ballots in a few years.

Maddux, Thomas, Glavine, Mussina, Kent in 2014
Pedro, Randy, Smoltz, Sheffield in 2015.

So the next three ballots will include: Biggio, Bonds, Piazza, Clemens, Schilling, Sosa, Maddux, Glavine, Kent, Mussina, F. Thomas, Pedro, Randy, Smoltz, Sheffield, Martinez, McGwire, Palmerio, Raines, Trammel, Walker, and other guys who garner at least some support, such as McGriff, Morris, Lofton, Mattingly. L. Smith, and more. Griffey in 2016.

Those candidates perceived to be borderline or marginal will have to wait a long time to get in.

I didn't think Kent would get in, at least not right away. I figured Mussina, Pedro, and Smoltz would have to wait at least till their 2nd year on the ballot. If Bagwell had to wait, Thomas may even have to wait due to thus far unfounded steroid suspicions. And as a confirmed (and non-legendary) roider, Sheffield's probably not getting in at all. Bear in mind that the BBWAA's electing as many as 4 players in the same year is rare, having only occurred 3 times: 1936 (5), 1947 (4), and 1955 (4)

Predictions:

2013
75 and up: Biggio, Morris
50 to <75: Bagwell, Piazza
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, Raines, Smith, Trammell
5 to <25: E. Martinez, Mattingly, McGriff, McGwire, Murphy*, Schilling, Sosa, Walker
<5: Lofton, Mesa, Palmeiro, Wells, Williams, etc.

2014
75 and up: Glavine, Maddux, Thomas
50 to <75: Bagwell, Piazza
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, Raines, Smith, Trammell
5 to <25: Kent, E. Martinez, Mattingly, McGwire, Mussina, Schilling, Sosa, Walker
<5: Gonzalez, McGriff, etc.

2015
75 and up: Bagwell, Johnson, Piazza
50 to <75: P. Martinez, Smoltz
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, Raines, Smith, Trammell
5 to <25: E. Martinez, Mattingly*, McGwire, Mussina, Schilling, Sheffield, Sosa, Walker
<5: Delgado, Garciaparra, Kent, etc.

2016
75 and up: Griffey, Hoffman, P. Martinez
50 to <75: Raines, Smoltz
25 to <50: Bonds, Clemens, Smith, Trammell*
5 to <25: E. Martinez, McGwire, Mussina, Pettitte, Schilling, Sheffield, Sosa, Walker
<5: Edmonds, Moyer, Wagner, etc.

2017
75 and up: Raines, Smoltz
50 to <75: Bonds, Clemens, Smith*
25 to <50: E. Martinez, McGwire, Mussina
5 to <25: Posada, Ramirez, Schilling, Sheffield, Sosa, Walker
<5: Pettitte, etc.

 

I don't think there's any way that Hoffman goes in on the first ballot, unless a vast majority of the electorate changes in five years.

And I think your underselling Kent on the projections.

 

Isn't this Morris' last year of eligibility? If it isn't, he only has a couple years left.

 

Dale Murphy is in his last year. Morris has this year and next.