2013 MLB Regular Season running thread

How exactly is it one of the greatest fielding seasons ever? Kinda hard to quantify that.

Simmons isn't terrible, but his .289 on-base percentage is. That's not just bad for a leadoff man. That's bad for any hitter. You also have to remember he has had a big surge over the last two weeks, so his numbers were even worse when much of the voting was going on.

Who would you replace with him? I know Tulowitzki has missed a big chunk of time, but he is an elite player and he has been more productive this season than Simmons in spite of the lost time. Even just on counting statistics, where Simmons should have an advantage based on having many more at-bats, Tulowitzki is better. He still leads all shortstops in home runs and RBI (15 and 51) despite the time out of the lineup and he has 41 runs scored compared to 45 for Simmons even though he bats lower in the order. He is also an outstanding defender in his own right.

Segura should be the starter in the NL. If you only look at the first three months of this season, he has been the best shortstop in the game. The offensive numbers are so far ahead of Simmons that it is silly to even compare. I guess you can argue with Cabrera, who has also missed time, but his numbers in that crappy lineup in San Diego are damn impressive.

 

Simmons' Defensive WAR is 3.1 in 84 games this season. The all-time record is 5.4. The best Ozzie Smith ever did for a full season was 4.7; Mark Belanger's best was 4.9.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/WAR_def_season.shtml

(Full disclosure: I honestly don't know what goes into Defensive WAR, but the fact that the list is filled with seasons by Belanger, Ozzie Smith, Brooks Robinson and Andruw Jones tells me it's a pretty good gauge).

Not saying Simmons deserves it over Tulowitzki or Segura, but he's as good defensively as Cabrera is with the bat (or with his legs, as it were). And anyway, I think Simmons will probably be on the team after Tulo decides not to play.

 

Putting aside the fact that even most statheads admit that the current defensive metrics aren't very good, you should take a better look at that list. Such immortals as Darwin Barney, Clint Barmes and Brendan Ryan have turned in full seasons with a defensive WAR higher than Simmons' current 3.1.

I think it was an incredible reach on your part to call what Simmons is doing one of the greatest defensive seasons ever. Do you even know what kind of defender Cabrera is? I would think you should to make a comparison.

 

WAR is a cumulative stat, not an index. In other words, if Simmons plays this way over a full season, his Defensive WAR would be 5.7, higher than anyone in baseball history.

And like I said, I have no idea how to calculate Defensive WAR. But the fact that Ozzie Smith and Mark Belanger — by acclimation two of the greatest defensive shortstops ever — are on there a half-dozen times each says it's probably a pretty good stat.

 

NATS FANBOI ALERT!!!! Ian Desmond isn't too shabby, either. Defensively, he had a half dozen or so errors early, but then went 50 or 60 games without an error. He's one HR and two RBIs behind Tulo and his offensive numbers pummel Simmons.

 

Thank you. I never bothered to look into how defensive WAR is calculated. Even the statheads admit it is very flawed, so I still don't see the use in it. You're willing to base your argument on a statistic you don't even understand. Sorry, but we'll have to agree to disagree on the validity of that.

You didn't answer my question about Cabrera. Do you even know if he is a good defender or not?

 

It's becoming pretty clear that defensive WAR is not accounting for advances in scouting and positioning, and that players are getting credit for making "difficult" plays that are really not all that difficult.

 

That's why it's usually a mistake to look at a team's record and assume they should have a certain number of all-stars. You still have to look at the options at each position.

Take Donaldson. I think you could argue that he is having a better season than Hardy, but Hardy plays at a much weaker position, so he is a starter and Donaldson was left off the team.

 

Average to slightly above at best.

And I just chose Defensive WAR as one stat. Simmons is on his way to being an all-time great defender by ANY measure, including the eye ball test.

 

Sorry, but I think you should have joined Sonner in opening your post on this topic with a fanboy alert. It's way too early to determine that.

What are you using as a basis for your defensive evaluation of Cabrera?

 

Simmons has been great.

I don't use baseball-reference's WAR, I prefer FanGraphs'.


FanGraphs uses UZR for the defensive component. UZR breaks the field into zones and batted balls into different types and speeds. Players are awarded points for plays made (and debited points for plays not made) based on where the ball was hit and how hard it was hit. That's the simple explanation. Here's the detailed one with links to other more detailed ones.

Adam Everett has the highest UZR/150 of any SS for a single season at 25.7. However, UZR only goes back to 2002.
*http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=y&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=1990&ind=1&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Simmons' UZR/150 (runs saved per 150 games or 1350 innings) is 25.1 for his career (1149 innings).
*http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10847&position=SS#fieldingadvanced

In his career, Simmons has had 356 balls hit into his zone. He's made plays on 309 of them. That's 86.8%
From 2012 until now all SS's have made plays on 80.3% of the balls hit into their zones. Simmons makes plays about 8% more often that the average SS.

Simmons has made the highest percentage of plays on balls in his zone of any SS with over 317 innings over that time.
*http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2013&month=0&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

He's also made plays on 71 balls out of his zone. That's the 19th most in the majors. However, he only has the 23rd most innings in that time. He's made the 5th most out of zone plays per inning of any SS.

So, yeah, he's pretty good.

 

I'm not saying Simmons isn't good. I'm saying the defensive metrics we have now aren't very good and it is way too early to start calling this guy an all-time great defensively.