2013 MLB Regular Season running thread

Same shmoo forgets why people turn right when running passed the base today.

 

I don't feel like doing it again, but earlier today on another board somebody went off the deep end with the Verlander-is-finished stuff, so I looked up on BR the records of a bunch of HOF or HOF-caliber pitchers: Seaver, Glavine, Johnson, Spahn, Palmer, Blyleven, Carlton, Ryan, Jenkins, Morris, and in fact every single one of them had a dud season (WL about .500, elevated ERA) about age 30 and then rebounded to be very very good for several seasons.

 

That's selection bias.

 

Sure. But I'm trying to think of another pitcher who had a record over his first 7 seasons comparable to Verlander, and then (without catastrophic injury or drug problems) simply dropped off the map. Jack McDowell is about the best match I can think of, I guess.

 

Verlander had a dud season at 25, though: 11-17, 4.84 ERA in 2008.

 

Almost all pitchers, even HOF-bound ones, have a 'setback' season in their first 2-3 seasons before taking off on an perennial All-Star career trajectory.

However the mid-career dud season is also a very common phenomenon.

 

What ever became of him after that? Did he amount to anything?

He is not even having a "dud" season. He has had two bad starts that have pushed his ERA from 3.50 to 3.99. That is still good enough to be in the top 25 in the American League. He has just about the same strikeout and HR rates as ever. He is wilder )(one more walk per 9 IP than last year) but the big reason is his BABIP has gone from .275 to .323.

There's always the possibility of a medical problem, but it sure looks like he's having a bit of wildness mixed with a lot of guys hitting 'em where they ain't. And before the last two years he had never finished with an ERA below 3.37 anyway.

 

MLB Network's guys got into Verlander's struggles a bit tonight. It's not just the wildness or the BABIP. His velocity is down. Whatever else you want to say about Verlander, the main thing that has always made him special is the ability to throw in the upper 90s, and even hit 100, deep into ball games. Take that away and how good is he?

Now maybe he bounces back and dip in velocity is temporary. Or maybe he adjusts. But there is more to be concerned about than two bad starts.

I certainly don't think he's done and the sky is falling stuff is a bit out of hand, but that doesn't mean there isn't a problem.

 

Does "dead arm period" no longer exist?

He shut out the Rangers 11 days ago on one hit through seven innings. What were the MLB Network guys concerned about then?

 

They are talking about average velocity over the entire season so far, not just two games. Just saying there are signs of an issue beyond just those two games.

 

I wasn't judging Verlander halfway through this season. I was saying that he's had his dud season already. Plenty of time for him left this season, and who would be surprised if he had a stellar second half?

 

Verlander's 6-6 with a 5.22 ERA in his last 15 starts. This is more than two months, not two starts.

His fastball mechanics are screwed up, so he can't spot it and get the easy outs he had in the past. That's why his strikeouts are up, his walks are up and his pitch counts are up. He said after today's game that he has found the problem, but he thinks it will take a game or two to get fully comfortable with the new arm slot/release point. He said for most of the game, he felt like he was pitching with the stuff from the last two years, but he'd lose the slot for a couple batters and get in trouble.