2013 MLB Regular Season running thread

Steak Snabler · Apr 25, 2013

93Devil said:

Dick Whitman said:

93Devil said:

Dick Whitman said:

Maybe it's been discussed here, but has anyone seen the ads - or watched the show itself - for MLB Network's Harold Reynolds-Brian Kenny debate show, "MLB NOW"? I don't know how the show itself plays out, but the commercials are an abortion. Basically, it's pitched as a clash between sabermetrics and "old-school," a clash that isn't really taking place any more. Both guys act out total stereotypes, as if they cribbed the working script from "Trouble With the Curve." What's more, it pits the nerdy analytics guy against the dumb jock, who also happens to be a black-skinned savage. Nice work.
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Really? Savage?

And, yes, there will always be a rift if a spreadsheet guys suggests a guy with a .378 OBP should pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth over a guy with a .350 OBP even though the rest of the team knows them .378 guy freezes up late in games and no chance of hitting 99 MPH heat over an outfielder's head.
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Also known as traditional scouting and analytics working in tandem.
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That's why I like OPS. Gives you a better idea of hitters who can drive the ball.
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The problem with OPS is that it's not a real index of anything. It breaks all the rules of mathematics to add together two numbers with different denominators (OBP is divided by plate appearances; SLG by at-bats).

Take two players with an OPS of .800 an example. One guy has a .350 OBP and a .450 SLG. The other has a .300 OBP and a .500 SLG. Which is more valuable? The first guy, by far, because the ability to get on base is the most valuable skill for a hitter.

But it's quick and easy to "calculate," I'll give you that. And a damn sight better than relying on batting average and RBIs.

JC · Apr 25, 2013

93Devil said:

Dick Whitman said:

Maybe it's been discussed here, but has anyone seen the ads - or watched the show itself - for MLB Network's Harold Reynolds-Brian Kenny debate show, "MLB NOW"? I don't know how the show itself plays out, but the commercials are an abortion. Basically, it's pitched as a clash between sabermetrics and "old-school," a clash that isn't really taking place any more. Both guys act out total stereotypes, as if they cribbed the working script from "Trouble With the Curve." What's more, it pits the nerdy analytics guy against the dumb jock, who also happens to be a black-skinned savage. Nice work.
Click to expand...

Really? Savage?

And, yes, there will always be a rift if a spreadsheet guys suggests a guy with a .378 OBP should pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth over a guy with a .350 OBP even though the rest of the team knows them .378 guy freezes up late in games and no chance of hitting 99 MPH heat over an outfielder's head.

And since Strasburg hit .277 last year, shouldn't he have been one of their top pinch hitters? The spreadsheet says so, right?
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Your Strasburg analogy is just dumb, it's called sample size so no the spreadsheet would not say that.

Cosmo · Jan 1, 2015

Jake_Taylor said:

JackReacher said:

Dick Whitman said:

JackReacher said:

That worthless bum Strasburg has one, too.
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All you heard about was how great this guy was going to be when he finally arrived. Then he gets hurt. Then they shut him down. Now he's 1-4. All that excitement ... for this?
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I know, right? It's awful. He'll get used to Harrisburg, I'm sure. They'll prolly send him down when they activate Zimmerman in a few days.

Bum.
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Harrisburg, shit. He'll finish the season in Hagerstown and likely won't be invited to spring training next year.
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Potomac never gets any of the good prospects.

93Devil · Apr 25, 2013

JC said:

93Devil said:

Dick Whitman said:

Maybe it's been discussed here, but has anyone seen the ads - or watched the show itself - for MLB Network's Harold Reynolds-Brian Kenny debate show, "MLB NOW"? I don't know how the show itself plays out, but the commercials are an abortion. Basically, it's pitched as a clash between sabermetrics and "old-school," a clash that isn't really taking place any more. Both guys act out total stereotypes, as if they cribbed the working script from "Trouble With the Curve." What's more, it pits the nerdy analytics guy against the dumb jock, who also happens to be a black-skinned savage. Nice work.
Click to expand...

Really? Savage?

And, yes, there will always be a rift if a spreadsheet guys suggests a guy with a .378 OBP should pinch hit in the bottom of the ninth over a guy with a .350 OBP even though the rest of the team knows them .378 guy freezes up late in games and no chance of hitting 99 MPH heat over an outfielder's head.

And since Strasburg hit .277 last year, shouldn't he have been one of their top pinch hitters? The spreadsheet says so, right?
Click to expand...

Your Strasburg analogy is just dumb, it's called sample size so no the spreadsheet would not say that.
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Of course it was. But just looking at a number does not tell people everything.

Steak, if I have runners on first and second, with the winning run on second, I want the higher SLG guy. If I am starting the inning, I want the OBP guy.

Uncle.Ruckus · Apr 25, 2013

Moderator1 said:

Ruckus, as to your question, see my long post above. They're 10-11, not 5-16. They played .500 ball for seven weeks last year after a 14-4 start. And won 98 games. Mock them when they're .500 in August, not now. Around here, folks have adopted a simple mantra: Could be worse, we could be the Cubs.
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I wasn't mocking the Nats. I was mocking Herpes, who posted something similar a day or two ago.

HanSenSE · Apr 25, 2013

Dick Whitman said:

Maybe it's been discussed here, but has anyone seen the ads - or watched the show itself - for MLB Network's Harold Reynolds-Brian Kenny debate show, "MLB NOW"? I don't know how the show itself plays out, but the commercials are an abortion. Basically, it's pitched as a clash between sabermetrics and "old-school," a clash that isn't really taking place any more. Both guys act out total stereotypes, as if they cribbed the working script from "Trouble With the Curve." What's more, it pits the nerdy analytics guy against the dumb jock, who also happens to be a black-skinned savage. Nice work.
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It's one of those shows I've tried to watch, but rarely succeed at doing, not because of the old school-new school thing, but just because it comes across as a low-rent version of "PTI" or "Around the Horn" that not even the resquisite leggy MLB Network anchor can save.

As for Strass ... if he'd only pitched the entire season [/snark]

outofplace · Apr 25, 2013

Moderator1 said:

outofplace said:

Moderator1 said:

Last year's start was very much the exception. He joked previously about Chipper Jones calling him around Mother's Day complaining about an error in the paper. "It says you're hitting .140!" Uh, no error, LaRoche said.

He'll be around .270 by end of season with 35 or so HRs. Nats will win a good many more than they lose, despite such "shitty, no count" pitchers as some seem to think.

Will it be enough? We'll see. That's kind of what makes it fun.
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Aside from the home run prediction, that is a point well made. LaRoche has never hit 35 home runs in a season and he has only been over 30 twice, but this is what LaRoche does. As you said, last April was the exception, which is probably why he had a career year. No shitty April to drag his numbers down.

I'm trying to remember what Ruckus predicted. That letting Morse go and keeping LaRoche would turn out to be a mistake? It's possible, but Morse is already hurt (again) and writing off LaRoche after a slow start simply shows a lack of knowledge about the guy.
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I need an editor. I meant 25. Sorry
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We all need an editor, sometimes more than others, but your overall point was a good one. The Nats would have been foolish to expect LaRoche to match last season, when he had a rare fast start that led to career-best numbers, but the crappy April fits in with what he has always done. The guy is pretty steady from year to year. You don't just have a pretty good idea of what he will do, but when in the season he will do it.

Moderator1 · Apr 25, 2013

Uncle.Ruckus said:

Moderator1 said:

Ruckus, as to your question, see my long post above. They're 10-11, not 5-16. They played .500 ball for seven weeks last year after a 14-4 start. And won 98 games. Mock them when they're .500 in August, not now. Around here, folks have adopted a simple mantra: Could be worse, we could be the Cubs.
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I wasn't mocking the Nats. I was mocking Herpes, who posted something similar a day or two ago.
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My bad

My point remains about the Cubs!

It is funny. Desmond noted yesterday that people around here would have been dancing with delight at a 10-10 start (1-11 a few years back) not that long ago. Now people are ready to jump off ledges at 10-11.

Now that Kimbrel has proven human in Atlanta, maybe there is hope for eventually closing the gap.

Uncle.Ruckus · Apr 25, 2013

I'm all in favor of the Cubs continuing to suck. They need to bottom out for another year or two, then unleash hell with all those top-3 picks, a renovated Wrigley and a jacked-up payroll.

Spending $100 million now to maybe build a .500 team is pointless and will just delay the recovery. The Cubs have sucked all my life, with the exception of seven seasons. What's another couple years?

Moderator1 · Apr 25, 2013

Sucking harder than usual for two years paid off for the Nats in Strasburg and Harper. One, as noted here, is a can't win bum. The other might be pretty good.

It is interesting to see how teams react when winning is expected rather than a nice surprise. Nats 14-4 start last year had people going HOLY SHIT!! If they did it this year, it would have been, well, yeah. That's what they're supposed to be doing.

JC · Apr 25, 2013

Winners win Moddy and Harper is obvioulsy not a winner along with that loser Strasburg. They lack the intagibles that real winners have.

NDJournalist · Dec 15, 2014

Football_Bat said:

Is anybody going to seriously challenge Yu Darvish for the AL Cy Young?

How about a 61-mph bender to Josh Hamilton, followed by a 98-mph four-seamer?

Hopefully someone will post a GIF of that. Here's what his slow curve looks like to Trout:

Woof.
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Umm, Felix Hernandez.

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2013 MLB Regular Season running thread

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