2013 Pro Football Hall of Fame Finalists

Brown did nothing as a wideout for the first five years of his career. Then he became a pretty reliable 80-catch, eight TD, 1,000-yard guy for almost a decade. Had good numbers with Donald Hollas throwing to him one year.

Also dropped a lot of key passes.

 

That team was all Bo, Marcus, the occasional deep ball, and the defense. Jay Schroeder, part of the utter detritus some otherwise very good Raiders teams had at QB from 1986-1992, had his best year that season but they kept the ball out of the air as much as possible. He had 19 scores, but 13 of them occurred in four games. The two leading receivers had 52 and 50 catches.

 

Some on the board would remember better than me for that time period, but considering he missed a year at age 23 because of injury, did the Raiders play it safe with him in 1990 to get him back into the swing of things, ie he wasn't fully healthy beyond spot receiver duty and punt returns?

 

A lot of people have said Reed will go in before Carter. That would show that the committee is able to look beyond the stats, because Carter's stats are far better.

I think the big tell about how much Brown will be impacted by spouting off will be when he's not a HOF finalist next year.

This year is especially tough to forecast because it's almost impossible to guess when the committee is going to put in certain owners and coaches. It would be pretty cool to see Modell and Eddie D. both make it this year. I don't see them passing on Parcells again.

I kind of think Strahan has a pretty good chance to make it on the first ballot. I think he's deserving to make it to Canton, but probably not quite at the level to make it on the first ballot, but I have a feeling that he's in such a prominent role right now isn't going to hurt...

Shields, Allen and Ogden should all go in, if you go by voting history, Shields will get in this year, and the others might have to wait a year or two. I kind of think Shields might have to wait another year and Allen and Ogden will both get in this year.

If it were up to me: Shields, Allen, Ogden, Modell, Parcells

Who I think will get in: Strahan, Allen, Ogden, Parcells and Haley

 

That third part is the most interesting point. For most of his career, he played for Raiders teams that were bad to mediocre. The only time he was seen by most fans east of the Mississippi was on SportsCenter highlights or Monday morning stat lines. For most of the 1990s, he looked like one of the best receivers in the game based on his "numbers." Very few people watched him play full games so a lot of people didn't realize he dropped a lot of passes. Actually, the first time it really came up nationwide was right after he retired. Dr. Z wrote a column about Brown's dropping passes and how it would affect his HOF chances. For some reason, that column always stuck with me.

 

At the same time, though, by my eyes Cris Carter also was better than Andre Reed. I still picture him tip-toeing at the sideline, getting both feet in on pass after pass thrown more or less out of bounds.

 

The committee will look beyond the stats in one respect -- who has waited longer. They do this regardless of position but the more times you are a finalist, you go to the top of the list at some point. They did with defensive ends a couple years ago.

 

They did this with linemen last year. I wonder if they'll do that again this season and put Shields in over a more deserving (not that Shields isn't deserving) Ogden and Allen.

 

Since 1980, the only first time defensive linemen have been, working backward, Bruce Smith, Reggie White, Randy White, Joe Greene, Merlin Olsen, Bob Lilly and Deacon Jones.

The first two are the only first-timers since 1987. John Randle was a second-year guy three years ago. I can't see Straham or Sapp being selected on the first ballot.

There is no way the committee puts in two non-players, which is why this is a fascinating vote. The last time they did it was 1997 and went with Wellington Mara and Don Shula. In 1993 it was Chuck Noll and Bill Walsh, and that's only because Bill Walsh didn't go in on the first ballot.

If Modell was in failing health right now instead of having already passed away, there is no doubt he would be elected. The question in the room is going to be, do you put more emphasis on the coach or the owner.

It's been 12 years since the voters put in a coach in a non senior role capacity while an owner went in two years ago. Plus this is Parcells' fourth try compared to DeBartolo's second.

 

It's going to depend on how they view the positional breakdown. And they just put in a boatload of offensive linemen, so are they going to want to put in two more, let alone potentially three, so soon?

The wild card, to me, from a player standpoint, is Jerome Bettis.

 

That's what makes it so hard to pick. It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict when non-players will go in. I wonder if it becomes a question of "Andre Reed didn't make it again, OK, let's vote in Modell..."

I wonder how many coaches have gone in first ballot. I'm guessing not many.

 

I think for Bettis to get in, only one linemen can make it. I think that's possible though...