2014 NFL draft thread (no longer too early)

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

General rule of thumb: you get better with experience. Thus, in MOST cases, a senior is better than he was as a junior, than he was as a sophomore, etc.

I can't think of a single player who came out early who would not have benefitted from an extra year. Some made it OK, but they might have made it even better by waiting.

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

If we are talking about players who are basically majoring in football, it would make sense to spend another year in college working on technique, getting faster, getting stronger.

And the players to look at are the mid round kids. Many of them, I think, would have gone undrafted or sixth and seventh round picks if they jumped to the NFL at the fist possible chance they had.

http://nfl.si.com/2013/04/30/2014-nfl-mock-draft/?sct=obinsite - some go up, some go down

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

Larry Fitzgerald comes to mind.

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

Matt Leinart would have been the runaway No. 1 pick if he came out after his junior season.

By the time he got the combine a year later, he was perceived by many as being soft and his work ethic was questioned. The same scout who told me Leinart would have gone No. 1 after his junior season told me a year later, "He wouldn't touch him in the first round."

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

No he wouldn't have. He would have gone through the combine that year and been picked apart.

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

Maybe, but probably not.

A lot of the red flags that teams saw were things that he started doing during his senior season. Johnny Manziel wasn't the first person to start partying like a rockstar after he won the Heisman and returned to school. A lot of teams saw Leinart's decision to return to school as an indication that he didn't think he was ready for the dedication that it would take to succeed in the NFL.

There was also perceived to be a lot less talent in the draft after Leinart's junior season, when Alex Smith went No. 1 and the best players (DeMarcus Ware and Aaron Rodgers) fell out of the top 10. The following year there was Mario Williams, Reggie Bush, Vince Young, DBrickashaw Ferguson, AJ Hawk, Vernon Davis... At the time, they were saying it was the best draft in years...

Mike McCarthy told me the Niners were devastated when Leinart decided to go back to school. He was the OC there at the time under Mike Nolan.

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

Leinart had elbow surgery shortly after announcing he was staying in school, and he missed many months of throwing while in recovery. The condition of his arm would have greatly affected his draft stock had be been there in 2005.

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

But how would that translate into his playing career? Would he have still been a flop, just a richer flop?

I admit it's hard to know. I do think a lot of how a player develops is related to what team he's with, what coaching he gets, etc. Take a guy like, say, Blaine Gabbert or Brandon Weeden or Leinart and put him with a different group of people and the results may be vastly different.

There may be a few exceptions, but overall I think the rule of thumb is you get better with experience. Too many people are simply looking to cash in when their name may be a hot commodity.

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

I think defensive players are much better suited to stay another year in school unless they are first round locks.

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

I think Leinart would have been a flop whenever he came out.

The difference was after his junior season less was known about him and teams were more intrigued. A year later and a lot of teams had heard that he was lazy and not very dedicated to football.

To be fair, sometimes they overanalyze too much for their own good, which is how Alex Smith goes No. 1 while Aaron Rodgers falls to near the end of the first round. At the combine that year, Rodgers seemed like the consensus No. 1 pick, while Smith seemed like he was going to sneak into the first round.

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

So what changed?

 

Re: (Way too early) 2014 NFL draft thread

With Rodgers and Smith, Smith hired Tom Condon and Rodgers hired a mid-level agent who was friends with Tedford. Condon did everything right while presenting Smith to teams, only letting him work out at Utah's pro day. Rodgers' agent flew him across the country and on a couple occasions had him doing it on back-to-back days and allowed teams to pick him apart. It's really an idiotic way to handle a guy who was supposed to be a very high pick.

Teams were intrigued by Smith and scared off a bit by the fact that so many Tedford products were NFL busts. They were also freaked out over the way Rodgers held the ball after the snap. He held it pretty low and people were worried that it would make him susceptible to fumble. The combination of those factors and that most of the teams drafting in the middle of the round didn't need a QB, so if he fell out of the top 6 or 7, he was going to fall pretty far unless someone moved up to get him.

I remember Pete Prisco called it. We were in the media room for the team I was covering and someone said, "Prisco has Rodgers falling to the Packers..." and everybody was laughing their asses off...