2019 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Maranville's top-10 similarity scores by BaseballReference:

That's a pretty solid overall group.

 

For all of these reasons, I doubt Maranville is even a top 10 "worst" selection. Like, I think all of the recent "bad" choices - Baines, Rice, Morris - are way worse because current voters have way more access to data and information to cut through myth.

 

So basically, your version left out the adjectives and adverbs. Seriously, kudos on the this one.

 

To repeat an old point, "bad" choices for the Hal of Fame is not an objective concept. It is an expression of belief that the Hall's standards should be higher than they are now or in fact have ever been once the no-doubters of the first five classes or so were inducted. It is an argument that the institution itself is flawed, not a fact-based assessment of baseball players.

 

I think Baines is a lot like Fred Taylor - an amorphous blob of productivity with no real defining points.

 

Putting Baines by a veterans committee in the same year that Edgar Martinez went in through the front door was in insult to Martinez. If a DH was going to go in, Martinez should have gone in alone. After all, it the Edgar Martinez Award, not the Baines Award.

 

5+ years - 39.3 WAR - Mookie Betts
22 years - 38.7 WAR - Harold Baines

 

19 years -- 75.1 WAR -- Lou Whitaker

WAR, remember, includes defense.

 

Baines is a regrettable choice, but it seems to me like the planets aligned for him with who were on the VC, i.e., LaRussa and some other guys with a direct connection to Baines' career. His election shouldn't open the floodgates, though it's a travesty he went in before Dave Parker, Ted Simmons or Dave Mattingly IMHO. I believe they're all on the same era ballot, right?

 

Correct. They are all on the Modern Era Ballot, which meets this off-season for 2020 Induction. Simmons will get in this time, he was one vote short two years ago. Based on the 2017 voting, the next best with a shot would be Marvin Miller, who was five votes short.

 

Dwight Evans, you would have to think, will be elected next time the Modern Baseball veterans committee votes, which I believe is in 2022. I cannot comprehend a logical defense for the inclusion of Harold Baines but not Dwight Evans in a Hall of Fame(Baseball-reference WAR: Evans 67.1, Baines, 38.7).

 

Evans has to get on the ballot first, and he wasn't on the last version. Two spots are open -- I assume one is finally going to go to Lou Whittaker, but you can never tell with how they come up with the 10 candidates.

The other problem is that there is a chance no one gets in on this next turn. Yes Simmons was a vote short, and Miller got 7 of the 12 needed and Whittaker should be a lock if he could get on the ballot. But the voters rotate so it's impossible to tell which way the wind blows -- I think everybody predicted Smith would get in this last time but no one had Baines.

Evans needs to either get on the ballot this time or needs to not be on and have Simmons and Whitaker get through.

By WAR alone Evans is the 5th best player eligible for the Modern Era Ballot, behind Whitaker, Grich, Reuschel and Nettles. Thrown in Miller has the obvious non-player ahead of him and the 2024 Modern Ballot might still be a stretch.