2019 MLB Regular Season running thread

Griffey broke in at 19. 8 years into,his career had hit 40 or more HRs 3 times.
6 season of over .300. 4 season of .390 or better OBP and was a superior defensive player. And Griffey was just getting started.
He hit. 160 HRs between age 27 and 29. His 9th-11th seasons.

At this point Harper is not Griffey.
Aaron and Mays broke in at 20. Willie lost almost 2 seasons to the military. Harpers not in their company.

He’s played 8 seasons, including this one. 1/3 of his WAR is from 1 season.

 

If you think Jim Thome is a compiler, then I can't help you.

And if you have to be pretty damn good to play 20 years. There's a reason just about everyone in the top 50 all-time in games played lasted at least 19 years (Aparicio is the only at 18 years) and 90 percent of them are in them are in the hall of fame or would be if it weren't for PED taint.

 

I don't think Jim Thome is a compiler and never said he was.

I think Jim Thome was good at walks and homers. I also think Thome was a better power hitter than Harper ever will be.

I'd still like to know your definition of Harper's "worst full season."

 

I don't think anyone is saying he is in that company.

Griffey had 238 homers through eight season. Harper is at 204 with seven weeks to go. Right now that's a four home run a year difference. Will it all even out by the time Harper gets to 33 years old? In season 9-13, Griffey hit 243 and was at 447 career. As of today, Harper needs exactly the same number Griffey hit. He'll probably come up short, but again, he might be closer than you think.

 

Harper has 204. Let's be generous and say he hits 10 more this year to finish with 214.

It would take him, what, 15 more years to finish with 600 homers?

He's only slugged .500 or better twice in his career. Griffey did it 13 times.

I don't think your expectations of what Harper's career will look like are remotely going to happen.

 

I went by WAR, which put his 2018 season behind his 2016 one.

If you want to use 2016, then the totals at the end of his contract would be: 1,684 runs, 2,503 hits, 501 doubles, 492 homers, 1,627 RBI and 1,959 walks. In today's world, those totals would be tied for 29th, 102nd, 62nd, 31st, 35th and 5th. Again, that's if he duplicated what you feel is the worst full season he's had

 

To me, the danger signal for Harper is that he's not going to get close to 100 walks this year. If that part of his game goes away, he goes from superior to a little above average offensive player real fast.

 

I'm not saying he will get there. Is it possible? yes, based on his career total at his age and the length of his contract. But now it's semantics. If he hits 550 is that bad? 500? It's all relative

 

He needs 22 in 48 games. That's a lower rate than he has in his games played so far this year. If he's healthy he will get there

 

Oh, man. If we're going to bring WAR into this, Harper doesn't have a shot. Take away his video game year, and he's averaging less than 3 WAR per season. Even giving him that year, he's averaging about 3.8 WAR per season. He would have to play 20 years just to reach 75 WAR.

And that's assuming his defense doesn't just completely fall off a cliff at some point, PLUS giving him credit for another video game season or two just to prop up the subsequent anemic seasons he's been having.

EDIT: It's a little better if you go by fWAR, but he still doesn't have a single 5+ season other than his MVP year.

 

There are only 50 players who have 75 WAR,

The magic cutoff believed to be a Hall of Famer for WAR is 70. 69 (nice) hitters have gotten there.

Every hitter who did is in the Hall expect:

Bonds
A-Rod (not eligible yet)
Pujols (not eligible yet)
Beltre (not eligible yet)
Rose (not eligible)
Dahlen
Whitaker
Walker
Jeter (not eligible yet)
Palmeiro
Trout (not eligible yet)
Grich
Rolen

There are currently 53 hitters between 60 and 70 WAR. Of those, 30 have been inducted. Two are active and Shoeless Joe is ineligible, so 60 percent of the players who have gotten at least 60 WAR are in. He’s halfway to that now.

 

Yep, he's halfway there already factoring in what will almost certainly be the best seasons he'll ever have. Let's revive this discussion in five years, assuming we're all still alive.