2020-21 NFL thread

And they usually don't last long.

 

Things have changed since the 1970s. Durability has become a significant issue at that position.

 

Speaking of durability being a problem, Chargers safety Derwin James is going to miss the entire season due to knee surgery.

Chargers safety Derwin James will miss 2020 season

James also missed all but five games in 2019.

 

But a lot of offenses look a lot better with a plus running back. I get not signing them long term, but a healthy running back like him has a ton of value for the immediate future.

 

Do you get the idea that the Jaguars are tanking the 2020 season? In addition to releasing Fournette, they traded Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue. That comes after recently ditching Jalen Ramsey and AJ Bouye.

 

No college player is worth tanking over, at least as far as #1 overall picks go.

Lawerence Taylor, Joe Greene, Ray Lewis, Mahomes, Wilson, Brady, Rice, Moss... these are players you might think about tanking for, but I cannot think off the top of my head a #1 pick who wound up being worth tanking for. Of course, I’m sure there are some. OJ? Was he a #1?

 

Eli and Vick were #1s in the last 20 years who were probably worth tanking for. Eli will get a huge argument, though.

Luck? Newton? No longevity.

Funny, it seems like teams were much better at nailing the #1 pick in the 70s and 80s.

 

There have been 84 #1 picks in history, and if we count P. Manning, who's not officially in, but is of course a lock, only 14 have made the Hall of Fame. There's about the same number of guys who, like say Drew Bledsoe, who had OK or better careers but just weren't Hall caliber. It's always been a crapshoot. And there were busts in the '70s and '80s too (Aundray Bruce, anyone). What makes it seem like there are more failures now, IMO, is that the increased importance of the quarterback position in this era means the team picking first, which almost by definition has a quarterback problem, feels such pressure to pick whoever they feel is the cream of that year's crop, even if objectively overall crop conditions are poor.

 

To expound on this point further, from 1970-1990, eight quarterbacks were number one picks. Three of 'em, Bradshaw, Elway and Aikman, are in Canton. From 2000-2020, 14 number ones have been QBs. There just aren't that many draft classes with multiple Hall QBs in 'em. There are many, and always have been many, that have none. The conventional wisdom is never reach for a running back. Most teams don't nowadays. But reaching for QBs is an almost universal practice in the top rungs of the first round, and those reaches can do a lot more damage to a franchise. Picking Blake Bortles third overall had a far worse effect on the Jaguars than drafting Fournette fifth.

 

The problem tends to be not the "reaching" or the "tanking" but the rest of the roster. I don't even know if the Jags need to tank - who will be in the QB market next year? Giants? Redskins? Colts? Throw that with more teams making the playoffs this year there will be more pressure to compete down the stretch. I still don't know why the Dolphins dumped Tunsil when they knew they would need someone to protect a new QB. And having someone entering their prime is far better than using a pick on a rookie.

 

If you have a pick in the top three and maybe the top five, the standard ought not to be "is he the best QB, or left tackle, or edge rusher, or any position?" The question should be "who's on the board who has the best chance to be a Hall of Famer, or at least an All-Pro?" Because when you're picking that high, you are right, Dan. You need players everywhere.

 

It’s not tanking to take a realistic view of your current roster, the current competition, your current payroll and cap and try and design a roster that will win consistently and be a contender over a 5 year period, rather than spending a fortune and not getting equity in return to try and get a wild card slot on a one and done play-off.